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Analysis, explainers, and stories written on top of UFCalendar's live MMA database.
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Islam Makhachev won a championship round without landing a strike
Makhachev vs Machado Garry scorecards, round by round: Garry outlanded the champion 29 to 22 and still lost, and round five went to Makhachev on zero strikes.
Aug 17, 2026 · 5 min read
Sal D'Amato judged both UFC 330 title fights and 1,069 UFC bouts
UFC 330 scorecards: Sal D'Amato scored three of the four decisions, including both title fights, and his ledger now runs to 1,096 judged fights.
Aug 17, 2026 · 3 min read
UFC 330 payouts: what Makhachev, Dern and every fighter made
UFC 330 payouts and bonuses from Philadelphia: four $100,000 awards, $832,000 in verified money, and what we estimate Islam Makhachev and Mackenzie Dern earned.
Aug 16, 2026 · 6 min read
UFC 330 upsets: the four fighters the market talked itself out of
UFC 330 upsets: Jeremiah Wells closed near plus 900 for the biggest UFC underdog win of 2026, and all four upset winners drifted further out during fight week.
Aug 16, 2026 · 4 min read
Ian Machado Garry's takedown defense didn't fail at UFC 330
Makhachev landed seven takedowns on Ian Machado Garry at UFC 330, and Garry stopped eight. The story is not bad defense, it is a champion who shot 15 times.
Aug 16, 2026 · 5 min read
UFC 330 results: Makhachev grinds down Machado Garry in Philly
UFC 330 results and analysis from Philadelphia: Islam Makhachev lands seven takedowns on Ian Machado Garry, Mackenzie Dern outlasts Gillian Robertson.
Aug 16, 2026 · 6 min read
UFC 330: our model's two tickets and the champ it won't back
UFC 330 predictions and odds: our model's two parlay tickets, the 29-point gap the books are missing, and why Islam Makhachev is the worst value on the card.
Aug 15, 2026 · 8 min read
ONE Fight Night 46 results: Hemetsberger knocks out Diachkova
ONE Fight Night 46 results: Stella Hemetsberger KOs Natalia Diachkova to keep the strawweight Muay Thai title, Nico Carrillo rolls on, Team Lakay eats an upset.
Aug 15, 2026 · 4 min read
Dern vs Robertson: the submission queens settle it at UFC 330
Dern vs Robertson prediction for UFC 330: the two best submission artists in UFC women's history meet for the strawweight title. The model backs the underdog.
Aug 15, 2026 · 5 min read
UFC 330 predictions: Makhachev vs Machado Garry full card picks
UFC 330 predictions for all 12 fights: Makhachev vs Machado Garry, Dern vs Robertson, and our AI model's pick for every bout in Philadelphia.
Aug 14, 2026 · 6 min read
Makhachev vs Machado Garry: the UFC 330 main event by the numbers
Makhachev vs Machado Garry by the numbers: age, reach, one welterweight fight of sample, and why UFC 330's main event is closer than the odds say.
Aug 14, 2026 · 5 min read
UFC 330 odds: where our AI model splits from the books
UFC 330 odds vs our AI model: the books favor Dern, Turner and Fernando, the model disagrees, led by a 28 point gap on Tobias vs Fernando.
Aug 14, 2026 · 4 min read
UFC 330 card, start times and how to watch Makhachev vs Garry
UFC 330 full fight card, start times and how to watch Makhachev vs Machado Garry and Dern vs Robertson on Saturday, August 15 in Philadelphia.
Aug 13, 2026 · 2 min read
UFC 330: How Ian Machado Garry survives Islam Makhachev
UFC 330 technique breakdown: the takedown chain Ian Machado Garry must break to survive Islam Makhachev, with numbers from the Della Maddalena and Belal fights.
Aug 13, 2026 · 5 min read
Vakhaev vs Aliakbari, Hemetsberger vs Diachkova: weekend preview
Weekend preview and predictions for ACA 206 Vakhaev vs Aliakbari, ONE Fight Night 46 Hemetsberger vs Diachkova, and ONE Friday Fights 166 in Bangkok.
Aug 13, 2026 · 4 min read
UFC 330: Barboza vs Ribovics is the bonus fight in plain sight
UFC 330 preview: Edson Barboza brings 12 career bonuses, Esteban Ribovics Fight of the Night in three of his last four. The math says violence.
Aug 12, 2026 · 4 min read
The winningest welterweight in UFC history opens UFC 330
Neil Magny owns the UFC welterweight wins record with 24, six clear of Georges St-Pierre. At UFC 330 he fights second on the card, at age 39.
Aug 12, 2026 · 4 min read
Can Ian Machado Garry decision his way to Makhachev's belt?
Ian Machado Garry enters UFC 330 on six straight decisions. Our sweep of every UFC title fight shows challengers like him almost never win the belt.
Aug 12, 2026 · 6 min read
What 14 years of line movement says about the UFC betting market
We analyzed line movement across 6,210 UFC fights since 2012. The side the money moves toward wins more often than the odds imply, and the gap is growing.
Aug 11, 2026 · 6 min read
UFC 330 odds: Makhachev's price on Machado Garry keeps sliding
UFC 330 odds tracker: Islam Makhachev opened near -390 on Ian Machado Garry in March. Five months of line movement have the champion at -340 on fight week.
Aug 11, 2026 · 2 min read
Dern vs Robertson: the numbers under UFC 330's other title fight
Mackenzie Dern defends the strawweight title against Gillian Robertson at UFC 330. The streaks, submission stats, and odds behind Saturday's co-main event.
Aug 11, 2026 · 5 min read
RIZIN 54 results: Sato upsets Patchy Mix, Akimoto beats Koike
RIZIN 54 results from Tokyo: Shoko Sato hands Patchy Mix a fourth straight loss and 20-year-old Kyoma Akimoto outpoints Kleber Koike Erbst in the main event.
Aug 11, 2026 · 5 min read
UFC 330 card changes: four bouts gone in eleven days
UFC 330 card changes tracked hour by hour: Blanchfield off, Geoff Neal out, a main-card flyweight bout that lasted 104 minutes, and the card as it stands today.
Aug 10, 2026 · 3 min read
Ten fighters won a second UFC belt. Seven defended it
Islam Makhachev defends the welterweight title at UFC 330. Across 482 UFC title fights, two-division champions have a strange record with the second belt.
Aug 10, 2026 · 6 min read
RIZIN 54 preview: Kleber Koike Erbst vs Kyoma Akimoto
RIZIN 54 predictions from Tokyo: Kleber Koike Erbst is an underdog against Kyoma Akimoto, plus odds, recent form and picks for all eleven bouts on the card.
Aug 10, 2026 · 5 min read
Salkilld submits Gamrot in 4:25: UFC Fight Night results
UFC Fight Night results and analysis: Quillan Salkilld submitted Mateusz Gamrot in round one, and 11 of 12 bouts went the way the betting board called it.
Aug 9, 2026 · 4 min read
UFC rankings lag the market, and Saturday proved it twice
No. 12 beat No. 8 twice on one UFC card, and both times the lower-ranked fighter was the betting favorite. The panel is four places behind the board.
Aug 9, 2026 · 4 min read
UFC Fight Night payouts: how much did Salkilld and Gamrot make?
UFC Fight Night payouts and bonuses: $525,000 paid out, four $100,000 awards and five $25,000 finish incentives. Who earned what, and what the UFC never discloses.
Aug 9, 2026 · 4 min read
Gamrot vs Salkilld parlay: the legs our model refused to add
Our model built two Gamrot vs Salkilld tickets, at 9.03x and 15.00x. The math offered a bigger number. Here is every leg we left off, and the rule that removed it.
Aug 8, 2026 · 6 min read
Gamrot vs Salkilld: where our model splits from the board
Gamrot vs Salkilld predictions: our model disagrees with 25 sportsbooks on four fights tonight, and marks down every favorite priced above 70 percent.
Aug 8, 2026 · 7 min read
When do UFC fighters get washed? 16,429 fights name two culprits
We tracked 16,429 UFC appearances to find when fighters get washed. Age and knockdowns absorbed predict the fall; cage time and strikes eaten do not.
Aug 7, 2026 · 8 min read
Gamrot vs Salkilld: how you out-wrestle a 26-fight wrestler
Gamrot vs Salkilld breakdown: Salkilld lands more takedowns per 15 minutes than Gamrot, and 19 attempts bought Gamrot two minutes on Dariush.
Aug 7, 2026 · 6 min read
UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld preview and predictions
Gamrot is the No. 8 lightweight and the underdog against unbeaten-in-the-UFC Quillan Salkilld. Full card picks, odds and start times for Saturday at the Apex.
Aug 6, 2026 · 6 min read
Octagon experience is an anti-predictor: 1,379 fights say so
Across three years of UFC results, the more experienced fighter wins 43.9 percent of the time. Saturday's Apex card is built entirely on that gap.
Aug 6, 2026 · 6 min read
What 34,509 judged rounds show: the 10-8 is vanishing again
A 2017 rules revision made UFC judges use the 10-8 round. By 2025 they used it less than before the reform, and the four busiest judges all drove it.
Aug 5, 2026 · 7 min read
Amanda Lemos is No. 8, and a 2-to-1 underdog to No. 12
Since 2013 the betting market has favored the lower-ranked fighter in 603 ranked UFC matchups and won 63 percent of them. Lemos vs Thainara is next.
Aug 5, 2026 · 8 min read
Usman Nurmagomedov to the UFC: the case for and against 22-0
Usman Nurmagomedov's 22 opponents were a combined 239-88, and 18 had winning records. What the UFC is really signing, and the honest case against it.
Aug 4, 2026 · 6 min read
141 UFC fights: the veterans on the next two cards
Elkins, Ferreira, Magny, Barboza and Luque bring 141 UFC appearances and 52 bonuses to two August cards. Magny is one walkout from sole third all-time.
Aug 4, 2026 · 4 min read
Makhachev vs Machado Garry: 61 percent, or 77?
The market prices Islam Makhachev at 77 percent to beat Ian Machado Garry at UFC 330. Our Power Index says 61. The takedown numbers explain the gap.
Aug 4, 2026 · 4 min read
Salkilld's 24 minutes: why the market likes him over Gamrot
Quillan Salkilld has 24:20 of Octagon time and four bonuses in five fights. The market favors him over No. 8 Mateusz Gamrot. Our Elo rating does not.
Aug 4, 2026 · 5 min read
UFC 330 loses Blanchfield vs Jasudavicius, with no replacement
The No. 4 vs No. 7 women's flyweight bout came off UFC 330 on July 27 with no replacement, and our change log dates every other UFC card move this week.
Aug 4, 2026 · 3 min read
UFC Belgrade payouts: how much did Uros Medic, Jan Blachowicz and every fighter make?
Every UFC Belgrade fighter's verified payout in one table: Uros Medic's $111,000 night, four $100,000 bonuses, eight $25,000 finish incentives, $792,000 total.
Aug 3, 2026 · 6 min read
Half the roster under $25,000: what a decade of disclosed UFC pay actually showed
We re-digitized 92 archived commission payroll reports, over 1,000 paychecks from 2008-2026. The median barely moved for a decade, then the numbers went dark.
Aug 3, 2026 · 5 min read
How MMA Scoring Works: The 10-Point Must System, Explained
What 10-9 and 10-8 actually mean, what judges are told to look for, and why scorecards still surprise people. Explained with UFCalendar's scorecard database.
Aug 2, 2026 · 4 min read