UFCalendar
UFC & MMA Blog
Analysis, explainers, and stories written on top of UFCalendar's live MMA database.
Investigations
Investigations
Lebosnoyani vs Hasanov odds: a 71% favorite the model calls even
Lebosnoyani vs Hasanov odds and prediction: 18 sportsbooks make Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani a 71 percent favorite. Our model, which never sees the line, says 49.
Oct 30, 2026 · 7 min read
Investigations
Yana Santos vs Luana Santos odds: the third-round problem
Yana Santos vs Luana Santos odds moved from +174 to +224 since opening, and our model gives Luana 82.6 percent. Round-by-round stats show why.
Oct 29, 2026 · 7 min read
Investigations
Zach Reese vs Mickey Gall odds: why the books and our model agree
Zach Reese vs Mickey Gall odds and prediction: the line moved from -280 to -333 in two days, and our model, which never sees the odds, gives Reese 72 percent.
Oct 28, 2026 · 6 min read
Investigations
Moicano vs Nolan odds: the line flipped, our model didn't
Moicano vs Nolan odds flipped: Nolan opened -130 and Moicano is now -115, yet our model still gives Tom Nolan 60 percent. What each side is reading.
Oct 27, 2026 · 8 min read
Investigations
Projected UFC rankings after UFC 333: Reyes up, Yakhyaev in
Projected UFC rankings after UFC 333: seven places move in four divisions, from Dominick Reyes passing Murzakanov to Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev entering at No. 15.
Oct 26, 2026 · 5 min read
Investigations
UFC 333 predictions graded: fans vs our model vs the odds
UFC 333 predictions graded: the betting favorite won 10 of 13, fans and our AI model 8 each, yet the model scored best on probability. Every bout, every number.
Oct 24, 2026 · 8 min read
Investigations
UFC 333 prelims: where our model and the sportsbooks split
UFC 333 prelims predictions: our model makes underdog Jacob Malkoun the favorite and loves Colby Thicknesse far more than the odds do. All eight bouts compared.
Oct 22, 2026 · 9 min read
Investigations
UFC 333 predictions: model backs Reyes and Keita against the odds
UFC 333 predictions: our AI model takes underdogs Dominick Reyes and Losene Keita, and is far surer of Alexander Volkov than the odds are. The receipts.
Oct 21, 2026 · 7 min read
Investigations
Volkanovski vs Evloev: 10 UFC Wins, All 10 on the Scorecards
Volkanovski vs Evloev odds are a coin flip, but our model gives Evloev 66.5 percent at UFC 333. All 10 of his UFC wins went to the judges: the 30 cards.
Oct 20, 2026 · 7 min read
Investigations
Barriault vs Daukaus Odds: Barriault's 2-4 Record on Home Soil
Barriault vs Daukaus odds and prediction for UFC Fight Night Edmonton: Marc-Andre Barriault is 2-4 in Canada and a +169 underdog. The fight-by-fight receipts.
Oct 14, 2026 · 7 min read
Investigations
Blanchfield vs Jasudavicius odds: what three shared opponents say
Blanchfield vs Jasudavicius odds moved from -230 to -319 this week. Fiorot, Andrade and Cortez explain why, plus the layoff and the Edmonton history.
Oct 13, 2026 · 5 min read
Investigations
Buckley vs Malott: why the line keeps moving toward the underdog
Buckley vs Malott odds have moved from +131 to +107 for the higher-ranked man. Why Buckley's two losses explain the move, and what Malott's home run says.
Oct 13, 2026 · 5 min read
Investigations
Gerald Meerschaert's 60th fight: what five straight UFC losses predict
Gerald Meerschaert vs Julius Walker at UFC Fight Night Allen vs Duncan: a 38-year-old on five straight UFC losses, and how every fighter in that spot has fared.
Oct 9, 2026 · 6 min read
Investigations
Allen vs Duncan: the market says Allen, our model says Duncan
Allen vs Duncan odds against our AI model: sportsbooks make Brendan Allen a -132 favorite, the model gives Christian Leroy Duncan 63 percent. Here is why.
Oct 7, 2026 · 6 min read
Investigations
UFC 332 Prelims: Why the Model Picks Coria and Doubts Wint
UFC 332 prelims breakdown: why our model picks Alden Coria over Imanol Rodríguez and sits far below the market on Anthony Wint.
Oct 1, 2026 · 10 min read
Investigations
UFC 332 Early Prelims: Dos Anjos, Walker, Vettori, McGee, Counted
UFC 332 early prelims: Dos Anjos, Walker, Vettori and McGee bring 94 UFC fights and 23 main events to the opening block, and a 4-15 run in their last five.
Sep 30, 2026 · 7 min read
Investigations
Deiveson Figueiredo at +442: How a Two-Time Champion Got Here
Deiveson Figueiredo vs Payton Talbott odds: the two-time flyweight champion is +442 at UFC 332. His last seven prices show how the market got there.
Sep 29, 2026 · 4 min read
Investigations
Natalia Silva vs Wang Cong: Why Our Model Calls It a Coin Flip
UFC 332 Silva vs Wang predictions: our model has the flyweight title fight at 50.3 percent, the market has Natalia Silva at -210. Who is missing what?
Sep 29, 2026 · 4 min read
Investigations
Raul Rosas Jr. vs Raoni Barcelos and a 17-year age gap
Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos at UFC Fight Night 289: 21 against 39, the widest age gap in UFC bantamweight history, and what the odds and our model make of it.
Sep 23, 2026 · 5 min read
Investigations
Norma Dumont vs Ailin Perez is a prelim at UFC Fight Night 289
The UFC Fight Night 289 card puts the No. 2 and No. 4 women’s bantamweights on the prelims while an unranked Raul Rosas Jr. headlines. A look at the ordering.
Sep 22, 2026 · 6 min read
Investigations
UFC 331 scorecards: three splits and the one worth arguing about
Every UFC 331 scorecard: the judges, 332 fan cards and 38 media scores on three split decisions, and why one strike a round decided two of them.
Sep 20, 2026 · 6 min read
Investigations
UFC 331 odds: five weeks flat, then seven days of movement
UFC 331 betting odds moved every day since September 13 after five flat weeks. Where the money went, and the five fights our model prices differently.
Sep 19, 2026 · 5 min read
Investigations
Gable Steveson is a 19-to-1 favorite over an 0-2 heavyweight
Gable Steveson vs Sean Sharaf at UFC 331: one UFC fight against two knockout losses, priced at -1900, on a pay-per-view main card. The precedent is not kind.
Sep 17, 2026 · 6 min read
Investigations
UFC 331 prelims: Tuivasa, Vera and Chikadze fight to stay
UFC 331 prelims put Tai Tuivasa on a seven-fight skid, Marlon Vera on four and Giga Chikadze on three, and the betting market has moved against all three.
Sep 16, 2026 · 5 min read