Moicano vs Nolan fan picks: the 12.34x Fan Parlay, leg by leg

Seventeen of the 18 people who have picked Zach Reese vs Mickey Gall on our pick'em board took Reese. That is 94 percent of the room. The sportsbooks, with their margin stripped out, give him 74 percent. No bout on UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs Nolan has a wider gap between the people voting and the people setting prices, and it sits in the middle of the prelims.

The card is at the Meta Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday, October 31. Prelims start at 5 p.m. ET (2 p.m. PT) and the main card at 8 p.m. ET, all of it on Paramount+ in the United States. Every other country is on the how to watch page.

The Fan Parlay is built from the fans' picks, not mine. For every bout we take the side the fans back by a clear majority, rank the bouts from most united to least, and stack them at the consensus line until the ticket reaches 10x. It is a record of what the fans think, priced by the books. It is not betting advice, and it is for readers 18 and over.

The ticket

Eight legs made it, and together they pay 12.34x, or +1134 in American odds. A $100 ticket would return $1,234 if every leg lands. The books, multiplying their own numbers, give all eight about a 5.6 percent chance. Odds are the consensus line as of Saturday morning, October 31, 11:20 UTC.

The order is the fans' own, with thin samples pulled toward 50-50 before ranking, which is why Smith's 20 of 24 sits above Kropschot's 15 of 19.

Every leg is a favorite. The first seven took the ticket to 9.23x, just short of the target, and Lebosnoyani carried it to 12.34x, inside the 12.5x ceiling the rule allows. A total of 121 fan picks stand behind the eight legs, out of 148 votes cast on those bouts.

Reese is where the fans and the books are furthest apart

Reese (10-4) comes off a split decision loss to Michel Pereira in February. Before that he submitted Jackson McVey in the second round in November 2025 and outpointed Duško Todorović that May. Gall (7-7) has lost four straight: Alex Morono on the cards in December 2021, a first-round stoppage loss to Mike Malott in April 2022, a decision to Bassil Hafez in June 2024 and a first-round stoppage against Ramiz Brahimaj at UFC 309 in November 2024. He has not fought since.

The fans read that and stopped arguing. The market is getting there more slowly. Reese opened at -265 on October 25 and has been bet to -344, which is still 20 points short of the room. I wrote about the case for both sides earlier in the week in Reese vs Gall odds.

Durden is the leg that sets the price

Cody Durden (18-11-1) does almost nothing to the ticket's popularity and almost everything to its price. He was the seventh leg in, and he took the slip from 4.98x to 9.23x on his own. Thirteen of the 19 fans who picked the bout took him, 68 percent, against the books' 51.

That is a big lean for a fight the market calls a coin flip. Durden lost three straight, to Jose Ochoa in June 2025, Allan Nascimento in November 2025 and Nyamjargal Tumendemberel at UFC 326 in March, before he snapped the run with a unanimous decision over Jafel Filho in April. Ode Osbourne (13-9) also fought Jafel Filho, in March 2024, and lost in the first round. Osbourne's last fight was a decision loss to Steve Erceg in August 2025. The bout was added on October 23 with Osbourne the -126 favorite and Durden at +106. It has flipped since: Durden -117, Osbourne -105.

The rest of the slip

Lucia Szabová (12-0) is the only unanimous leg on the card, 18 of 18, and the shortest price at -740. Her last four fights were all in OKTAGON, and the last of them was a five-round decision over Lucie Pudilová in August. Tainara Lisboa (7-4) has lost two straight, to Melissa Croden by knockout in October 2025 and to Luana Santos by a submission at 4:59 of the second round in May 2025.

That Lisboa loss is the receipt behind the third leg. Luana Santos (11-2) is No. 7 in the women's bantamweight rankings and has won three straight, the last two on the cards over Melissa Croden and Karol Rosa. Yana Santos (17-8) is No. 6 and has also won three straight, all decisions, over Chelsea Chandler, Miesha Tate and Macy Chiasson. The higher-ranked fighter is the underdog here, and the fans went 16 of 18 against her, 18 points ahead of the books' 70 percent. Luana has been bet from -200 to -280.

Jacobe Smith (13-0) stepped in for Carlos Leal against Randy Brown on October 23. Smith has finished all three of his UFC opponents since the Contender Series, the latest a first-round stoppage of Josiah Harrell in February. Brown (20-8) has lost two straight, to Gabriel Bonfim by knockout and Kevin Holland on the cards. The fans' 83 percent is about 12 points ahead of the books' 71.

Joseph Kropschot (9-3) has won his last four, three of them by submission in the second round. Nick Klein (6-3) has been stopped in both of his UFC fights since the Contender Series. The fans give Kropschot 79 percent, the books 74, and our model only 53, the widest model gap on the ticket.

Francis Marshall (10-3) has won two straight, a first-round submission of Erik Silva and a decision over Lucas Brennan. Dakota Hope (11-2) lost a split decision to Kai Kamaka III in his UFC debut in April. Ten of 14 is the smallest sample on the ticket, and the line has moved toward Hope, from -255 to -233.

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani (11-2) is the one leg where the books are surer than the fans, 71 percent to 67. He won his UFC debut by split decision over Phil Rowe. Farman Hasanov (6-0) won his by unanimous decision over Eric Nolan in June. The price has gone from -240 to -297, and the Lebosnoyani vs Hasanov breakdown covers what our model makes of that price.

The main event is not on it

Photo: Sexto Round / CC BY 3.0

The most-voted bout on the card is the headliner. Fifty-eight fans have picked Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan, and 36 of them took Moicano, 62 percent. The books give Moicano 52 percent. That lean was not strong enough to beat the eight legs above it, and the ticket had already passed 10x before the main event came up, so it stays off.

It is also the bout where the fans have watched the market come around to them. Nolan opened as the favorite at -130 on October 23, with Moicano at +110. It is Moicano -122 and Nolan +101 now. No. 12 Moicano (21-7-1) submitted Chris Duncan in the second round in April, after losses to Islam Makhachev and Beneil Dariush. No. 14 Nolan (11-1) has won three straight, the latest a decision over Farès Ziam in June. It is the biggest crowd on the card, for the only fight on it scheduled for five rounds. The full card predictions go through it in detail.

Where the fans split

No bout on this card is tied, and every bout cleared the five-vote minimum, so the open fights are the close ones.

• Talita Alencar vs Piera Rodriguez is 9-7 for Rodriguez, 56 percent, against the books' 72. It is the closest vote on the card and the bout where the fans are least sure of a favorite the books like a lot. Both women have won three straight, and Rodriguez has been bet from -225 to -299.
• Julian Erosa vs JeongYeong Lee is the only bout where the fans back the underdog: 9 of 15 took Erosa at +140, where the books give him 40 percent. Erosa (31-13) has lost two straight. So has Lee (11-3), who has not fought since May 2025. The fans' 60 percent is 20 points ahead of the price, nearly as wide as the Reese gap, in the other direction. It missed the ticket only because the ticket was already full.
• Rodrigo Sezinando vs Theodor Berggren is 10-6 for Sezinando, and here the fans and the books say the same thing, 62.5 percent and 61.

The math

• Combined price: 12.34x (+1134)
• The books' chance that all eight land: about 5.6 percent
• The same ticket at the fans' own shares: about 18 percent
• Fan picks behind the eight legs: 121 of 148 votes cast on those bouts

One caution you can act on: eight bouts on one card are not eight independent coin flips. Results on the same night, in the same room, tend to move together, so treat the books' 5.6 percent as an upper-bound style estimate rather than a hard number.

The ticket keeps moving with the votes until the first bell at 5 p.m. ET, then freezes and settles on the event page leg by leg. If you think the room has been too kind to Durden, or too hard on Erosa, the fix is simple: make your own picks, and your vote moves the next ticket. Fan picks, not betting advice, 18+.