Moicano vs Nolan predictions: all 12 UFC Fight Night picks

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs Nolan puts 12 fights in the cage at the Meta Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday, October 31. Prelims start at 5 p.m. ET (21:00 UTC), the main card at 8 p.m. ET (00:00 UTC Sunday). In the United States the whole card streams on Paramount+, and every other country is in our how-to-watch grid.

The short version of my card starts with a disagreement. Our model, which works from fight data and never sees a betting line, gives Tom Nolan 60 percent against Renato Moicano. The sportsbooks opened the fight the same way, Nolan -130 and Moicano +110, then turned it around. The consensus across 18 books now reads Moicano -122, Nolan +101. The fans on our pick'em went further still: 22 of the 32 who had called the fight by Thursday took Moicano.

So the model stands alone on the headliner. On five of the other 11 bouts it sits within four points of the market, which is about as close as two independent readings of a fight get. Away from the headliner, the two disagreements I'd watch with the numbers open are both on the prelims, and both favor the underdog. The odds quoted here are information, not advice.

Main event: Moicano vs Nolan

Photo: Show Me The Money / CC BY 3.0

No. 12 Moicano (21-7-1) against No. 14 Nolan (11-1) in the lightweight rankings, over five rounds. I already walked through the move hour by hour in the line-flip piece, so here is only the shape of the argument. The model's heaviest input is age: Moicano is 37, Nolan is 26. Its second is form, a five-fight win streak against a one-fight streak. The only column that tips toward Moicano is takedowns, and it tips only slightly.

The market and the crowd are reading the résumé instead, and it is a good résumé. Moicano's last three opponents were Islam Makhachev, Beneil Dariush and Chris Duncan, and he submitted Duncan in the second round of his own headliner in April. Seven of his 13 UFC wins came by submission. Nolan's run, by contrast, is built on decisions: three of his five straight went the distance, against Alex Reyes, Viacheslav Borshchev and Farès Ziam, with a first-round knockout of Victor Martinez and a first-round submission of Charlie Campbell in between.

I went back and forth on this one, and I'll admit the Duncan finish nearly talked me out of the model. What talked me back is the format. Twenty-five minutes is a long time to ask a 37-year-old to keep a bigger, younger southpaw from settling into the kind of fight he has already won three times on the cards. If Moicano gets his hands on Nolan early, none of this matters. If he doesn't, the later rounds belong to the man born in 2000.

Prediction: Tom Nolan by decision. Model: Nolan 60 percent.

Where the model breaks from the books

Nick Klein vs Joseph Kropschot, middleweight. Leave aside Farman Hasanov, whose number rests on a single UFC fight, and this is the widest gap on the card. The consensus has Kropschot at -338 and Klein at +264, which gives Klein about a 26 percent chance once the margin is removed. Our model gives him 47.

On paper the books have the easier argument. Klein (6-3) is 0-2 in the UFC, and both losses were knockouts in the second round, against Mansur Abdul-Malik and Andrey Pulyaev. He has not fought since August 2025, and a booking that November fell through. Kropschot (9-3) comes off a Contender Series decision in August (30-27, 30-27, 29-28) in which he landed 119 significant strikes and threw three submission attempts, winning every card against an opponent who took him down twice. He is also the bigger body, 6-foot-3 with a 79-inch reach to Klein's 6-foot-1 and 77.

The model knows all of that. Its own breakdown scores the striking clearly for Kropschot. What it will not let go of is Klein's wrestling: across his two UFC fights he completed 5 of 16 takedowns and spent 7:46 in control, including 4:45 against Pulyaev before the stoppage. He took the Contender Series route by submitting Heraldo Souza in under 40 seconds. The model's case is that a wrestler with that much control time is closer to a coin flip than a 3-to-1 shot. The market's case is that Klein keeps getting hit before the wrestling pays off. I lean with the market, though nowhere near as hard as 3-to-1.

Prediction: Joseph Kropschot by TKO. Model: Klein 47 percent.

Talita Alencar vs Piera Rodriguez, women's strawweight. This gap is roughly the size of the main event's. The model has Alencar at 40 percent; the line has her at 28, and it has moved away from her since opening at +189. She is now +236 against Rodriguez's -299.

Both women are wrestlers on three-fight win streaks, and neither has been taken down in any of those six fights. Alencar (8-1-1, 4-1 in the UFC) held Vanessa Demopoulos for 12:38 of a 15-minute fight in which Demopoulos landed 10 significant strikes. Rodriguez (12-2, 5-2 in the UFC) went 8 for 10 on takedowns against Josefine Lindgren Knutsson and controlled her for 10:24. Over their last three fights Alencar has the edge in control time, 21:15 to 17:35. Rodriguez has the edge in volume and accuracy, and the model's own breakdown gives her the striking and the two years in age.

There is a shared opponent, and it is a strange one. Rodriguez lost to Ariane Carnelossi by disqualification in May 2024 after outlanding her 40 to 16 and scoring a knockdown. Alencar submitted Carnelossi in the third round last November. That proves nothing about Saturday except that both of them were winning that fight.

Prediction: Piera Rodriguez by decision. Model: Rodriguez 60 percent.

The rest of the main card

Randy Brown vs Jacobe Smith, welterweight. Smith is 13-0, and all five of his fights under the UFC banner, Contender Series included, ended inside the distance. He knocked out Bruce Whitehead in 1:32 on October 3 and is back 28 days later. Brown is 36, five inches taller and coming off a knockout loss to Gabriel Bonfim and a decision loss to Kevin Holland. The model is more certain than the market here, 79 percent to roughly 71.

Prediction: Jacobe Smith by TKO. Model: Smith 79 percent.

Ode Osbourne vs Cody Durden, flyweight. The closest fight on the card in the betting: Durden -117, Osbourne -105, the model 52 to 48 for Durden. They share two opponents. Osbourne beat Charles Johnson by split decision in 2023; Durden beat him two months later going 11 for 18 on takedowns. Jafel Filho submitted Osbourne in the first round in 2024; Durden beat Filho in April, 5 for 5 on takedowns. Osbourne has six inches of reach and has not fought since August 2025.

Prediction: Cody Durden by decision. Model: Durden 52 percent.

Yana Santos vs Luana Santos, women's bantamweight. No. 6 against No. 7. Yana's three-fight streak is three unanimous decisions; Luana's includes a submission of Tainara Lisboa, who fights on the prelims. The model gives Luana 83 percent, well past the market's 70.5.

Prediction: Luana Santos by decision. Model: Luana 83 percent.

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs Farman Hasanov, welterweight. Lebosnoyani is -297 and 2-0 in the UFC, both by decision. Hasanov is 6-0 with one UFC fight, a wrestling-heavy decision over Eric Nolan in June. The model calls it even, 51 to 49 Hasanov, on a file one fight thick.

Prediction: Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani by decision. Model: Lebosnoyani 49 percent.

The rest of the prelims

Francis Marshall vs Dakota Hope, featherweight. Hope lost his UFC debut to Kai Kamaka III by split decision in April, landing 106 significant strikes and scoring a knockdown along the way. Marshall has won two straight and held Lucas Brennan for 6:36 in April. Marshall wrestles, Hope throws, and the model (63 percent) and the market agree on who that suits.

Prediction: Francis Marshall by decision. Model: Marshall 63 percent.

Rodrigo Sezinando vs Theodor Berggren, welterweight. Both men lost their UFC debuts to the same fighter, Daniil Donchenko: Sezinando by first-round TKO in September 2025, Berggren in the second round in June after being dropped twice. One of them gets a first UFC win on Saturday.

Prediction: Rodrigo Sezinando by TKO. Model: Sezinando 59 percent.

Julian Erosa vs JeongYeong Lee, featherweight. The model gives Erosa 51 percent as a +140 underdog. The full case for the upset is in how Erosa beats Lee: survive round one, then go to work on a fighter who has spent a lot of his UFC time under control.

Prediction: Julian Erosa by submission. Model: Erosa 51 percent.

Zach Reese vs Mickey Gall, middleweight. Model and market have agreed on this one from the start, 72 percent to about 74. Why they agree is its own piece.

Prediction: Zach Reese by TKO. Model: Reese 72 percent.

Lucia Szabová vs Tainara Lisboa, women's flyweight. Szabová is 12-0 and makes her UFC debut after three straight five-round title fights in OKTAGON. Lisboa is 35 and has lost two in a row, by submission to Luana Santos and by third-round TKO to Melissa Croden. The shortest price on the card, -740, and the model goes higher still.

Prediction: Lucia Szabová by TKO. Model: Szabová 87 percent.

All 12 picks

I'm with the model on the headliner and against it on the two prelim fights where it is most out on its own. That is not a comfortable split. If Klein and Alencar both win, the model will have read two fights better than 18 sportsbooks did, and I will have been the one who blinked. Make your own calls on the pick'em before the first bell, and follow results on the event page on Saturday night.