ACA 209 results: Odilov beats Frolov, underdogs take 8 of 17

Seventeen fights in Dushanbe on Friday, and the betting favorite won nine of them. That is the whole story of ACA 209 in one number: a coin flip with a cage around it. The main event went exactly the way the line said it would, and then the undercard spent the evening making that line look like a guess.

All prices below are the sportsbook consensus at the last reading before each bout began. On this card that consensus was thin, one or two sportsbooks per fight, so treat every number as a read on opinion rather than a verdict. Odds here are information, not betting advice.

Odilov does it on the cards, again

Faridun Odilov beat Artem Frolov by unanimous decision, 30-27 on all three cards, in his own capital. Nobody should be surprised by the method. Odilov's last four fights before Friday had all gone to the judges, and this one made it five.

The numbers say it was not close. Odilov landed 50 significant strikes to Frolov's 22, took him down twice in four attempts and held 3:29 of control time against 22 seconds. Frolov came in off a second-round TKO of Mark Hulme in June and never found the exchange he needed.

The market wobbled more than the fight did. Odilov opened at -155 on October 23, stretched to -175 three days later, then drifted all the way back to -120 against -104 on fight morning, close to a pick'em. By the time the cage door shut it was -146 with Frolov at +119. Somebody got cold feet about the home fighter overnight, and Odilov spent fifteen minutes explaining why they shouldn't have.

He is now 22-4-2 and has won three straight since a decision loss to Elmar Gasanov last December. That loss and the December 2024 submission defeat to Adlan Ibragimov are the two names in the way of any title talk, and a man who wins every round 10-9 is a hard sell for an immediate rematch with either. Frolov drops to 21-8.

One correction to my own preview: I called this a five-round fight. The scorecards say three.

The upsets, in order of price

Felipe Bunes (+340) was the longest price of the night to win, and he won with the rarest finish of it: a twister on Azam Gaforov at 4:13 of the first round. Bunes arrived off two straight decision losses in the UFC, the second a split against Edgar Cháirez in February, and only one sportsbook bothered to price this fight. That book had Gaforov at -525. Bunes logged four submission attempts in a little over four minutes, which tells you he was hunting from the first exchange. He goes to 15-9. Gaforov, at home, has now lost two in a row and sits at 16-6.

Bakhtovar Yunusov (+313) was the prelim that nobody priced correctly. Yunusov did not just edge Saidyokub Kakhramonov, he swept him 30-26, 30-27, 30-27 with 66 significant strikes to 11, a knockdown, four takedowns in six tries and 9:07 of control in a 15-minute fight. A -429 favorite spent more than half the fight being held down. Yunusov is 12-1-1.

Bekhruz Zukhurov (+290) stopped Viskhan Kadirov with punches at 1:28 of the second round. This was the fight I was most confident about, and I was wrong in full: I picked Kadirov by submission. Kadirov had won eight straight, and he did drop Zukhurov once. Each man scored a knockdown; only Zukhurov's led to a finish. The strike counts were almost level (25 significant for Kadirov, 24 for Zukhurov), which is the point: a fighter whose last four bouts all went to decisions found a finish against the hottest prospect on the card. Zukhurov goes to 19-9, Kadirov to 17-5.

Ayk Kazaryan (+200) took a split decision from Eldar Munapov. Munapov won one card 29-28, Kazaryan won the other two by the same score. You can see why it split. Kazaryan out-landed him 39 to 36 in significant strikes, but Munapov had two takedowns in five tries and 6:00 of control to Kazaryan's 3:41. One judge paid for position, two paid for damage. Under the current criteria, the two had the better argument, and that is about as much as anyone should say about a three-strike margin.

Tural Ragimov (+190) beat Nashkho Galaev 29-27, 29-28, 29-28, with a knockdown and 74 significant strikes to 43. Ragimov is 38. Galaev was a -240 favorite.

Mamurzhon Khamdamov (+180) opened the night by dropping Ivan Soloviev twice and stopping him at 3:52 of the second round. Klidson Abreu (+160) snapped a three-fight losing streak with 30-26 on all three cards against Hamdy Abdelwahab, landing 81 significant strikes to 13, 65 of them on the ground. Abreu is 18-9. And Sayed Safarmamadov (+145) beat Ali Mashrapov when the doctor stopped it at the end of the first round.

A note on the crowd. Twelve bouts on this card had a Tajik fighter on one side, and Tajik fighters went 8-4 in them. The market had them as the underdog in seven of those bouts. They won four.

Everything else

Favorites held the rest. Kuat Khamitov (-280) stopped Alexey Makhno with punches at 0:44 of the second round, which makes Makhno's losing run four, all inside the distance. Firdavs Zaripov (-257) choked out Vagiz Ismagilov in 1:25. Alikhan Musaev, the biggest favorite of the night at -1048, stayed unbeaten with a second-round TKO of Jahongir Saidjamolov. Akhmed Khamzaev, Khafiz Sakibekov, Bektur Zhenishbek Uulu, Nizambek Abdrashitov and Emomakhdi Orzuzoda also won as favorites, the last four on the cards.

Eight of the 17 bouts ended inside the distance. Only one of the nine decisions was split.

Grading my picks

I made three ACA picks in the weekend predictions post. Odilov by decision: right, method and all. Khamitov by decision: right fighter, wrong method. Kadirov by submission: wrong fighter, wrong method, wrong everything. Two of three winners on a night when the favorite went 9-8 is not a boast.

ONE Friday Fights 176: nine finishes in 12

The same afternoon at Lumpinee Stadium, ONE Friday Fights 176 did what Friday Fights tends to do. Twelve bouts were completed, and nine ended early. Eight of the 12 were Muay Thai, two were kickboxing and two were MMA.

The advertised main event, Rambong Sor Therapat vs Jacob Thompson, did not happen, and neither did Petkhaokradong Lukjaomaesaithong vs Abdelali Zahidi. That left an atomweight Muay Thai bout on top, and Khunsuk T1 Fight Academy (-183) closed it by knocking out YodUdon K Tongtalingchan at 3:06 of the second round after two knockdowns.

Six of the eight Muay Thai bouts ended in knockouts, four of them in the first round. Adham Ruziev took 1:15 to finish Denchailek Sor Dechapan. Xavier Gonzalez needed 1:19 against Exza Wankhongohm, Akram Hamidi (+133) dropped Numsurin Chor Ketwina twice and finished him at 1:58, and Yassir Rassafi (+177) knocked out Tomyamkoong Bhumjaithai at 2:41. Sitthichai Sor Dechapan (+112) stopped Arthur Evan in the second. Only Caviar Pudprachachuen, on a split decision over Klapichit K Tongtalingchan, and Superbest Winnermuaythai (+146), on a unanimous one over Raize, needed the judges. I had picked Numsurin by decision in the preview. Hamidi had other plans.

In kickboxing, Yumeto Mizuno scored three knockdowns before stopping Nihad Taghizade at 2:16 of the second, and Ranma out-landed Evan Gambuto 82 to 43 in significant strikes on the way to a unanimous decision.

The two MMA bouts were the ones I got wrong. Pedro Duarte (+287) dropped Ethan Brockett twice and stopped him at 2:53 of the first round, ending Brockett's unbeaten run in ONE. I had Brockett by decision. Earlier in the night, Oga Akita (+123) stopped Prashanth Guda at 2:09 of the first. Counting the cancelled Rambong vs Thompson bout as no grade, my ONE picks went 0 for 2.

Underdogs won six of the 12 at Lumpinee. Add ACA and the day's favorites went 15-14 across two cards. If anybody tells you they saw Friday coming, ask them what they had on the twister.

The full results and every bout page are on the ACA 209 and ONE Friday Fights 176 event pages. Odilov is 4-1 since the Ibragimov loss, and all five of those fights went the distance. How many more 30-27s before ACA gives him another shot at the man who submitted him?