OKTAGON 96 results: Gogoladze survives two knockdowns, wins title

OKTAGON 96 was a good card that got better the longer it went, and that's mostly down to one five-minute stretch I had backwards. Eleven fights at SAP Garden in Munich, four first-round stoppages, seven decisions, two underdogs, and a main event that looked like an upset for five minutes before it turned into a wrestling seminar.

Amiran Gogoladze is the new OKTAGON welterweight champion, beating Jessin Ayari by unanimous decision over five rounds. He is 19-3, he has won five straight in OKTAGON, and he spent the first round of his title fight on the receiving end.

The first round was Ayari's, and then it wasn't

In the case for Ayari I wrote that round one was the whole knockout file, that Gogoladze's danger was front-loaded, and that if Ayari was still standing at 5:00 the fight was a lot closer to even than -789 said. Ayari was still standing at 5:00. Gogoladze was the one who'd been on the floor.

Our stat sheet credits Ayari with two knockdowns in the first round. He out-landed Gogoladze 25 to 10 in significant strikes, landed 24 of them on the ground, threw in a submission attempt and had 1:45 of control to Gogoladze's 1:09. A 34-year-old who took this fight four days out, against the longest price on the card (Gogoladze closed at -880, Ayari +542 across five sportsbooks, about 85 percent to 15 once the margin is out), won the opening round about as clearly as you can win one without ending it.

And then the other half of my piece came true, the half I'd buried. I'd written that once a Gogoladze fight survives round one it becomes a decision fight, and that the long version of him is a wrestler who digs. Here is the dig:

Over rounds two through four Gogoladze out-landed him 55 to 24. Ayari edged the volume in the fifth, which fits the late-round pattern I flagged, but Gogoladze landed the only takedown of the fight in that same round and held him for 2:14 of it. Over 25 minutes it came to 80 significant strikes to 66 and 7:53 of control to 3:50.

So, honestly: I built a path for Ayari, he walked the first part of it better than I imagined, and the part I said was his edge (the scrambles, the submission threat) never came back after round one. We don't have the judges' cards for this one, so I can't tell you whether anyone gave him a 10-8. On our numbers, it wouldn't have mattered. The Sniper's rule still holds, too: thirteen fights since 2018 and he has still never finished anyone, or been finished, after the first five minutes. This time he needed the other twenty. Ayari drops to 19-7, and he goes home having knocked down the champion twice in a title fight he didn't know about on Monday. There are worse ways to lose.

Next for Gogoladze, the board makes it simple. Jack Grant is No. 2 on OKTAGON's welterweight rankings, right behind him.

On to the rest of the card

• Lazar Todev def. Simon Biyong, split decision. I'd like a word with the dissenting judge. By our round-by-round count Todev out-landed Biyong in every round (14 to 9, 20 to 14, 30 to 19), 64 to 42 overall, and landed 29 leg kicks to Biyong's zero. Neither man attempted a takedown. To score that for Biyong you have to give him two rounds in which he landed less, on the feet, with nothing else happening. I picked Todev by decision in the weekend preview, so I'm not complaining about the result, only about how close the system came to getting it wrong. Todev is 15-7, No. 1 at heavyweight, and has won four straight.

• Marek Bartl def. Brian Manning, TKO, round 1, 3:03. This is the one that pays off our odds-movement piece, and not in the direction the overnight money pointed. Manning opened as a coin flip, jumped from -167 to -254 in one 90-minute window early on Saturday morning with no card change underneath it, and closed at -240. Bartl (+208) took him down twice in two tries, landed 13 strikes on the ground and had it stopped at 3:03. Manning landed six significant strikes. Bartl is 18-16 at 33, a record that tells you nothing about what he did here.

• Michael Deiga-Scheck def. Lukáš Chotěnovský, unanimous decision. The local man, 40 years old, out of Munich Allstars Gym, on a three-fight losing streak, at +239. He was also the only bout on the card where the overnight line drifted toward the underdog. He won the first round 32 to 22 in significant strikes and dropped Chotěnovský in the second, then got out-landed 48 to 12 in the third and hung on. All three judges gave it to him anyway. He's 12-8, and I'd let him enjoy the walk home before anyone mentions retirement.

• Ronald Paradeiser def. Tyrone Pfeifer, unanimous decision. I picked Pfeifer by TKO and leaned on the direction of travel. Wrong, and not close. Paradeiser landed five of six takedowns, held Pfeifer for 7:55 of the 15 minutes and out-landed him 49 to 28; Pfeifer landed two significant strikes in the third round. Paradeiser, No. 4, snaps a two-fight skid and goes to 24-11. Pfeifer, No. 8, is 8-2.

• Gökhan Aksu def. Rene Runge, TKO, round 1, 1:58. The 73 kg catchweight built on Tuesday went the way the -871 closing price said. Aksu took him down twice, landed 34 significant strikes to Runge's five, 24 of them on the ground. That's the TKO I picked, and a clean reset after the Legierski title loss in June. Aksu is 15-7-1 and No. 3 at lightweight.

• Endrit Brajshori def. Christian Mach, TKO, round 1, 4:38. Forty-six significant strikes in under five minutes, a knockdown, 23 strikes on the ground. Mach shot six takedowns and landed none of them. Brajshori goes to 7-2.

• Abdulmalik Aliev def. Marat Nessar, unanimous decision. The market's favorite was the 21-year-old who hadn't fought in almost two years, and the market was right. Aliev was close in the first round, then took over: 62 significant strikes in the third alone, 95 to 22 for the fight, 9:29 of control. He's 2-0.

• Ivan Klevets def. Ronaldo Ferreira, unanimous decision. The Wednesday add-on was against Hafeni Nafuka. By the time the prelims started, Ferreira (14-5-1 coming in) was in the other corner, a change that reached our card on fight day itself and never got a betting line. Klevets landed four of five takedowns, controlled him for 10:35 and attempted three submissions in the first round. After starting his career 0-3, he has now won six straight.

• Burak Kizilirmak def. Kevin Hangs, TKO, round 1, 1:54. One takedown, 14 strikes on the ground, 16 significant strikes to one. Kizilirmak is 13-3, and with Aliev, MT Gym 23 went 2-0 on the night.

• Henrique Madureira def. Daniel Schordje, unanimous decision. The closest line on the card (-123 to -102) and the first round wasn't close at all: a knockdown and 28 significant strikes to five. Madureira is 11-7. Schordje takes the second loss of his career at 10-2-1.

What Friday night knew

A few loose ends, since I asked the question in print. The closing favorite won eight of the ten bouts that had a line. The two that didn't, Bartl and Deiga-Scheck, were the two biggest stories in the overnight movement: Manning's line was the largest firming move on the card and he lost in 3:03, while the only line that drifted toward an underdog went to the underdog. Todev's overnight jump to the high -500s came in, by a split. All of that is information, not betting advice, and a handful of bouts is not a pattern. It's a reminder that a price moving at 1 a.m. tells you when somebody acted, not that they were right.

My own ledger from the weekend preview: Gogoladze by TKO (right fighter, wrong method), Pfeifer by TKO (wrong), Todev by decision and Aksu by TKO (both right). Three of four winners, and the one I'd most like back is the one I argued hardest for.

OKTAGON is back on Saturday with Igor Severino vs Max Holzer for the bantamweight title at OKTAGON 97. Gogoladze has the belt now. Ayari has the tape of round one, and I suspect he'll be the first man the new champion is asked about.