UFCalendar
UFC & MMA Blog
Analysis, explainers, and stories written on top of UFCalendar's live MMA database.
Editorials
Editorials
UFC Fight Night 289 odds: every big line move went toward our model
UFC Fight Night 289 odds movement: Vieira, Brener, Jackson and Bellato all moved toward our market-blind model, plus Till vs Romero and a Cage Warriors flip.
Sep 26, 2026 · 6 min read
Editorials
UFC 332 Is a Fight Night Wearing a Number. I Counted.
The UFC 332 card has three top-10 fighters and no champion, the second-emptiest numbered event since 2016. Even with Shevchenko back, it barely moves.
Sep 23, 2026 · 9 min read
Editorials
Contender Series 93: 22 of the last 30 fights ended early
Dana White’s Contender Series 93 is tonight. Over the six cards before it, 22 of 30 fights were finished, 18 points above the UFC’s own 2026 rate.
Sep 22, 2026 · 5 min read
Editorials
UFC 331's veteran cull: Tuivasa, Chikadze and the one exception
Tai Tuivasa has lost seven straight and Giga Chikadze four. Marlon Vera was cast in the same role at UFC 331 and won instead. What the odds said about all three.
Sep 21, 2026 · 5 min read
Editorials
Gable Steveson was a 16-to-1 favorite and lasted twelve seconds
Gable Steveson closed at minus-1636 and Sean Sharaf knocked him out in twelve seconds at UFC 331. What the price, our numbers and his purse all got wrong.
Sep 20, 2026 · 5 min read
Editorials
Van vs Pantoja: the model, the market and our readers disagree
UFC 331 predictions: our model gives Joshua Van 71.9 percent over Alexandre Pantoja, the betting market says 56, and our readers still pick Pantoja.
Sep 19, 2026 · 5 min read
Editorials
Patricio Pitbull is 1-2 in the UFC and the line is moving
Patricio Pitbull vs Dooho Choi at UFC 331: Pitbull has drifted from +177 to +219 in three weeks while Choi rides three straight knockouts into Los Angeles.
Sep 16, 2026 · 4 min read
Editorials
The UFC paid Jose Delgado $6,000 to save its main event
Jose Delgado stepped in on short notice to keep Noche UFC's main event intact and lost to Jean Silva. His verified minimum payout was $6,000, exposing a pay tier that prices tenure, never risk.
Sep 13, 2026 · 4 min read
Editorials
David Martinez vs. Dan Ige: an 82 Percent Mismatch at Noche UFC
Vegas prices David Martinez as an 81 percent favorite over Dan Ige at Noche UFC, and our model agrees at 82, yet it is the least previewed fight on the card.
Sep 11, 2026 · 4 min read
Editorials
Super Rizin 5 and the myth of the moving line
Super Rizin 5 odds review: the line moved on all eight fights and went 3-1 either way, while six of the eight were decided on the mat.
Sep 10, 2026 · 5 min read
Editorials
DWCS 91: where our model and the betting market split
DWCS 91 odds vs our model: the books have Kwon Won Il at a coin flip and Martin Kozak at -474. We disagree on three of Tuesday's five Contender Series fights.
Sep 7, 2026 · 5 min read
Editorials
UFC Paris scored: the favorites held, our numbers did not
We scored every UFC Paris prediction against the closing odds: our model went 8 of 14, the market 9 of 14, and three upsets beat both of us in Paris.
Sep 5, 2026 · 5 min read
Editorials
Rafael Lovato Jr. deserved a better fight than this one
Rafael Lovato Jr. was 11-0 with a world title win over Gegard Mousasi. ONE booked him against a submission grappling specialist and it took 112 seconds.
Sep 5, 2026 · 4 min read
Editorials
Kai Asakura, Xiong Jing Nan and the UFC's import problem
Kai Asakura knocked out Aoriqileng in 34 seconds. Xiong Jing Nan lost in a round and is 0-2. The UFC keeps signing champions and spending them immediately.
Aug 31, 2026 · 5 min read
Editorials
China is 20-9 at home in the UFC, and Shanghai loads up again
Chinese fighters are 20-9 across the four UFC cards staged in China. Saturday in Shanghai puts eight more on, with Song Yadong headlining vs Umar Nurmagomedov.
Aug 24, 2026 · 5 min read
Editorials
Three knockdowns, no 10-8: the UFC Sacramento scorecards
UFC Sacramento scorecards: Rodrigues scored three knockdowns and still won by a round on two cards. Judges have used the 10-8 on 2.8% of rounds since 2023.
Aug 23, 2026 · 4 min read
Editorials
Islam Makhachev won a championship round without landing a strike
Makhachev vs Machado Garry scorecards, round by round: Garry outlanded the champion 29 to 22 and still lost, and round five went to Makhachev on zero strikes.
Aug 17, 2026 · 5 min read
Editorials
The winningest welterweight in UFC history opens UFC 330
Neil Magny owns the UFC welterweight wins record with 24, six clear of Georges St-Pierre. At UFC 330 he fights second on the card, at age 39.
Aug 12, 2026 · 4 min read
Editorials
UFC rankings lag the market, and Saturday proved it twice
No. 12 beat No. 8 twice on one UFC card, and both times the lower-ranked fighter was the betting favorite. The panel is four places behind the board.
Aug 9, 2026 · 4 min read
Editorials
Usman Nurmagomedov to the UFC: the case for and against 22-0
Usman Nurmagomedov's 22 opponents were a combined 239-88, and 18 had winning records. What the UFC is really signing, and the honest case against it.
Aug 4, 2026 · 6 min read
Editorials
141 UFC fights: the veterans on the next two cards
Elkins, Ferreira, Magny, Barboza and Luque bring 141 UFC appearances and 52 bonuses to two August cards. Magny is one walkout from sole third all-time.
Aug 4, 2026 · 4 min read