UFC 332 Odds vs Our Model: Roberto Soldic Is the Big Split
UFC 332 odds vs our model: Roberto Soldic is -309 against Khaos Williams, our model has him at 43.8 percent. Every gap on the card, information only.
Our prediction model never sees a betting line. It knows records, rates, ages, layoffs and level of competition, and it has no idea what anyone is paying for either corner. So every fight week I line its numbers up against the market and look for the places where they disagree. Last week, at UFC Fight Night 289, every big line move went toward the model.
UFC 332 is four days out. The lines have been up for a week, 18 sportsbooks deep on most bouts, and there is one fight where the two numbers are not even in the same neighborhood. This is information only, not betting advice.
The whole card
Market numbers are the consensus across sportsbooks with the bookmaker margin stripped out, for the fighter listed first. The first line is the earliest one we logged, mostly on September 24.
| Bout | First line | Now | Market | Model | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natalia Silva vs Wang Cong | -228 | -210 | 64.7% | 49.6% | 15.1 |
| Deiveson Figueiredo vs Payton Talbott | +385 | +442 | 17.6% | 20.0% | 2.4 |
| King Green vs Esteban Ribovics | +260 | +200 | 31.9% | 39.8% | 7.9 |
| Roberto Soldic vs Khaos Williams | -300 | -309 | 72.2% | 43.8% | 28.4 |
| Ateba Gautier vs Roman Kopylov | -190 | -208 | 64.6% | 69.9% | 5.3 |
| Imanol Rodríguez vs Alden Coria | -140 | -155 | 58.1% | 45.4% | 12.7 |
| Damian Pinas vs Andrey Pulyaev | -500 | -493 | 79.2% | 74.8% | 4.4 |
| Marcus McGhee vs Benardo Sopaj | -175 | -148 | 57.0% | 42.3% | 14.7 |
| Anthony Wint vs Lucas Armand | -245 | -463 | 78.6% | 72.9% | 5.7 |
| Johnny Walker vs Mick Parkin | -144 | -142 | 56.0% | 40.6% | 15.4 |
| Rafael Dos Anjos vs Alexander Hernandez | +186 | +213 | 30.6% | 41.1% | 10.5 |
| Marvin Vettori vs Ismail Naurdiev | +115 | +115 | 44.4% | 41.6% | 2.8 |
| Jacobe Smith vs Bruce Whitehead | -987 | -992 | 86.6% | 89.2% | 2.6 |
| Court McGee vs Eric Nolan | +226 | +197 | 32.2% | 46.8% | 14.6 |
Six fights carry a gap of more than 12 points. The main event is one of them, and I went through that one on its own in a separate piece. The rest of this is about the one that dwarfs it.
Soldic at -309, the model at 43.8
Photo: PIXSELL / CC BY-SA 3.0
Roberto Soldic is making his UFC debut against Khaos Williams on the main card, and the market has had him at roughly -300 since the first line went up. It has not moved. The model has him as the underdog.
The market's case is the résumé. Soldic is 21-4 with one no contest, and he held KSW titles at welterweight and middleweight. He took the middleweight belt by knocking out Mamed Khalidov in the second round at KSW 65 in December 2021. Fans agree with the market almost to a person: 18 of the 20 picks on our pick'em have Soldic.
The model's case is what happened after that. Soldic went to ONE, where Zebaztian Kadestam knocked him out in the second round in May 2023. He came back to knock out Dagi Arslanaliev in 1:55 at ONE 171 in February 2025, and he has not fought since. By Saturday that is 590 days. Williams last fought in May, when he knocked out Nikolay Veretennikov in 3:31, 140 days before this card.
The single biggest reason the model gives is the level of competition. It reads Soldic's wins as coming against a weaker pool than the UFC welterweight division Williams has spent 11 fights in, and it prices the layoff on top of that.
Williams is 16-5 and 7-4 in the UFC, and he is not a comfortable fighter to back on paper. He absorbs 5.34 significant strikes a minute and avoids only 41 percent of what is thrown at him. He has not landed a takedown in the UFC. His two losses before the Veretennikov win were a second-round submission to Gabriel Bonfim and a decision to Andreas Gustafsson. A knockout artist with a two-division title history against a man who gets hit that often is a fight the market is always going to like.
Twenty-eight points is still a lot of daylight. When the model and the market were this far apart at Fight Night 289, it was the market that moved. This time the line has not moved at all.
Walker, McGhee and the other age gaps
Johnny Walker is ranked 13th at light heavyweight and is fighting up at heavyweight against Mick Parkin. The market has Walker at 56 percent. The model has Parkin at 59.4. Walker has lost three of his last four, two of them by knockout, the most recent a split decision to Dominick Reyes at UFC 327 in April. Parkin is 10-1 and has been out since a decision loss to Marcin Tybura in March 2025. The model sees an unbeaten pre-UFC record and a younger man. The market sees the bigger name.
Marcus McGhee opened at -175 against Benardo Sopaj and has drifted to -148, a move of almost five points toward the model, which has Sopaj at 57.7 percent. The reason is the one the model states most often on this card: McGhee is 36, Sopaj is 26. McGhee is ranked 15th at bantamweight. Five of the six fans who have picked this fight took him anyway.
Age is also why the model likes Ateba Gautier more than the market does. He is 24, unbeaten in five UFC fights, and faces the 34-year-old Roman Kopylov. That line has shortened from -190 to -208, toward the model.
The lines that went the other way
The market is not following the model everywhere this week.
Anthony Wint opened at -245 against the debuting Lucas Armand and is now -463. That move blew straight past the model's 72.9 and kept going. Wint is 8-0, with a 34-second knockout on Dana White's Contender Series 87 and a first-round submission of Terrance Chatman in his UFC debut 11 days later. Armand is 6-0 and has never fought in the UFC.
Rafael Dos Anjos has drifted from +186 to +213 against Alexander Hernandez, away from a model that has him at 41.1. He turns 42 later in October. The model knows that and still likes him more than the market does, because 49 pro fights is a lot of evidence.
And Deiveson Figueiredo has gone from +385 to +442 against Payton Talbott, a small move away from a model that has him at 20 percent. That price has its own story, which I told here.
Saturday's test
Last week the model got to say "told you" on four lines. This week the market is holding its ground on the biggest gap on the card, and the model's case for Williams rests on a 590-day layoff and a level of competition that no betting board prices the same way.
One of them is going to look silly on Saturday night. The lines, the model numbers and the pick'em are all live on the UFC 332 event page until the first bell.