Wellmaker vs Tanzilovi: a -225 favorite our model calls a coin flip
Wellmaker vs Tanzilovi odds have firmed from -176 to -225 for UFC Fight Night on October 10, yet our model has it 49.8 percent. The takedown numbers explain why.
On Saturday, October 10, Malcolm Wellmaker opens the main card of UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan at the Meta Apex in Las Vegas against Otari Tanzilovi, a bantamweight bout with a highlight reel on one side and a wrestling file on the other.
The betting market has picked the highlight reel. The sportsbook consensus opened at -176 on Wellmaker on October 1, hit -205 within three hours, and has sat between -220 and -231 for four days. This afternoon it reads -225 on Wellmaker, +183 on Tanzilovi, across 18 books.
Our model gives Wellmaker 49.8 percent.
Not 60. Not "a slight lean." Forty-nine point eight. One of these two numbers is wrong by about 16 points, and I want to show you why I think it is the market's.
Two Georgians, two different résumés
The booking has a joke built in: Wellmaker was born in Augusta, Georgia, and Tanzilovi in Telavi, Georgia. Same name on the map, very different paths to the cage, identical 10-2 professional records.
Wellmaker's path is the one the market has priced. His first three bouts under the UFC banner looked like this:
| Event | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Contender Series 69 | Adam Bramhald | KO, round 1, 2:30 |
| UFC Fight Night, April 2025 | Cameron Saaiman | TKO, round 1, 1:59 |
| UFC Fight Night, June 2025 | Kris Moutinho | TKO, round 1, 2:37 |
A knockdown in every one of them. If you stopped reading the record there, -225 looks cheap.
Then come the last two, and they are the part of the file that matters for Saturday.
How Wellmaker actually lost
At UFC 322 in November 2025, up at featherweight, Ethyn Ewing beat him on all three cards. The striking was close, 85 of 163 significant strikes for Ewing to 77 of 146 for Wellmaker. The difference was the wrestling: Ewing landed 3 of 5 takedowns, Wellmaker went 0 for 3.
Back at bantamweight in May, Juan Díaz did not bother with the close part. He landed 5 of 8 takedowns, piled up 3:48 of control time and finished Wellmaker with a submission at 4:08 of the second round at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Costa. Wellmaker landed 15 significant strikes and did not attempt a single takedown.
So the two men who beat Wellmaker took him down eight times between them. Across the bouts we track, he stops 47 percent of takedown attempts. That is the number our model keeps circling.
What Tanzilovi brings
Tanzilovi is 0-2 in fights the UFC has promoted, and I am not going to pretend otherwise. But read the losses, not the column.
On Contender Series 71 he dropped a split decision to Josias Musasa (29-28, 28-29, 29-28) while shooting 16 times, landing 4 takedowns and banking 3:51 of control. In his UFC debut in June against Shane Collins, again at featherweight, he landed 5 of 9 takedowns and controlled Collins for 4:14 at UFC Fight Night: Kape vs Horiguchi. He lost a unanimous decision because Collins outlanded him 76 to 58 on the feet and threatened three submissions.
Tanzilovi's problem in both fights was what happened when he was not on top. His wrestling was never the problem. He now drops back to bantamweight to face a man whose two losses were both built on takedowns.
What the model is weighing
Our model breaks every pick into grouped drivers, and this one is a tug of war:
- Opposition level leans Wellmaker. Even our Power Index rating, which only cares about who beat whom, has him at 59 percent. That is the single biggest factor in his favor.
- Grappling leans hard Tanzilovi: 4.5 takedowns per 15 minutes to Wellmaker's 0.0, 86 percent takedown defense to Wellmaker's 47, and 4.0 minutes of control per 15 to Wellmaker's 0.7.
- Age and prime leans Tanzilovi. Wellmaker is 32.4 and the model reads his prime as fading; Tanzilovi is 28.5 and in it.
- UFC record favors Wellmaker 3-2 to 0-2, but the model discounts it as a small sample, which it is.
Put those together and you land at 49.8. The knockouts and the 3-2 pull one way, the takedown numbers and the birth certificate pull the other.
The case for the market
Here is the honest objection: the -176 was never a real consensus. It was one book's opener. The line had already reached -205 before a second book posted, and by the time ten books were pricing the fight on October 4 it was -223. So the dramatic "move" is mostly the market finding its level, not a flood of late money.
I'll concede that. The story is not that the price moved. The story is where it settled, and that it has not budged since. Strip out the bookmakers' margin and -225 still says Wellmaker wins about 66 times in 100. Our model says 50.
The market is pricing three first-round finishes in a row. The model is pricing the two fights since, which show what happens when someone shoots on Wellmaker, and the fact that Tanzilovi lands 4.5 takedowns per 15 minutes.
Saturday tells us who was right
Of the twelve bouts on this card, this is one of three where our model and the consensus sit more than 16 points apart. This one tests the cleanest single question: does a power striker with a 47 percent takedown defense get to keep the fight standing against a man who averages 4.5 takedowns per 15 minutes?
If Wellmaker stuffs the first shot and lands a fourth knockdown, the market was right and I will say so on Sunday. If Tanzilovi is on top by the two-minute mark, -225 was a price set off a highlight reel.
This is information, not betting advice. Make your own call on the pick'em page, and follow it live from the event page on fight night.