China is 20-9 at home in the UFC, and Shanghai loads up again

The UFC has staged four Fight Night cards in mainland China. On those four cards, Chinese fighters have gone 20-9 against foreign opposition. That is a .690 win rate at home, accumulated across nine years, three cities and two eras of the roster, and it is not a number the promotion has ever made much noise about.

Saturday in Shanghai is the fifth card, and it is the heaviest load yet: eight Chinese fighters, including Song Yadong in the main event against Umar Nurmagomedov and Yan Xiaonan in the co-main.

Photo: Новости ННТ / CC BY 3.0

Let's do the card by card breakdown first, because the trend inside the 20-9 is more interesting than the total.

The four cards

Shanghai, November 2017: 5-2. Li Jingliang knocked out Zak Ottow, Wang Guan took a split from Alex Caceres, Song Kenan stopped Bobby Nash, Yan Xiaonan beat Kailin Curran, and a nineteen year old Song Yadong submitted Bharat Kandare in his UFC debut. Wu Yanan and Hu Yaozong lost.

Beijing, November 2018: 6-3. Song Yadong again, Li Jingliang again, Wu Yanan, Pingyuan Liu, Yan Xiaonan, and a fighter named Zhang Weili submitting Jessica Aguilar in what was, at the time, an unremarkable prelim. Song Kenan, Hu Yaozong and Sumudaerji took the losses.

Shenzhen, August 2019: 5-1. This is the high water mark and everyone remembers why. Zhang Weili knocked out Jessica Andrade in 42 seconds to win the strawweight title. Li Jingliang, Song Kenan, Sumudaerji and Alatengheili all won. Wu Yanan dropped a split.

Shanghai, August 2025: 4-3. Sumudaerji beat Kevin Borjas, Taiyilake Nueraji stopped Kiefer Crosbie, Rongzhu beat Austin Hubbard, Yizha knocked out Westin Wilson. Zhang Mingyang was knocked out by Johnny Walker in the main event, Maheshate lost a decision, Xiao Long lost a decision.

Five to two, six to three, five to one, four to three. The 2025 return was the first card where the home fighters did not win at least two thirds of their bouts.

What the UFC has actually been doing here

Here is the thing about that .690. It is not evidence that Chinese fighters are underrated. It is evidence of matchmaking, and the matchmaking has been extremely deliberate.

Look at who they beat. Zak Ottow, Bobby Nash, Kailin Curran, Vince Morales, Lauren Mueller, Martin Day, Andre Soukhamthath, Derrick Krantz, Bharat Kandare, Jessica Aguilar in the twilight, Austin Hubbard, Westin Wilson, Kiefer Crosbie. These are, with respect to every one of them, the opponents you book when you want a specific result in a specific building.

I do not say that as an accusation. Every promotion in every combat sport does this when it enters a market, and the alternative, which is throwing a developing national roster at ranked opposition on their home debut, is how you kill a market in one night. The UFC built a Chinese audience the way you are supposed to build one, and it worked. Zhang Weili is the proof and the payoff.

But it does mean the 20-9 is a manufactured number, and reading it as a talent signal is a mistake.

Which makes Saturday genuinely different

Now look at the 2026 card.

Song Yadong is 12-4 in seventeen UFC appearances and he is fighting the number three ranked bantamweight, a man who is 20-1 with his only loss coming in a five round title fight against Merab Dvalishvili. Umar Nurmagomedov has not fought since January 24, which is 212 days, and his last three wins came against Cory Sandhagen, Mario Bautista and Deiveson Figueiredo.

Song is coming off a second round submission of Figueiredo on May 30 and a decision loss to Sean O'Malley before that. He is ranked sixth. He is fighting the third ranked man, in his own country, off a layoff for the opponent and a win for him.

That is not a Zak Ottow booking.

Yan Xiaonan is 9-4 in thirteen UFC fights, ranked fourth at strawweight and twelfth in the women's pound for pound, and she fights Denise Gomes, who is ranked fourteenth. Aoriqileng, 4-5, fights a former RIZIN champion. Sumudaerji, 6-4, fights Alex Perez, who challenged Deiveson Figueiredo for the flyweight title at UFC 255 and is ranked eleventh in the division. Xiao Long is 1-3 in the UFC. Ding Meng is 0-1. Xiong Jing Nan is 0-1.

Add it up and the home roster on Saturday carries a combined 32-22 UFC record, and four of the eight are at or below .500 in the promotion. This is not the 2017 card where five of seven were being walked to a win. Three of these fights are against ranked opposition and two are against fighters with realistic paths to a title shot.

The prediction, since I owe you one

The home run rate drops again. I think Chinese fighters go 4-4 or worse on Saturday, and I think that is a good sign rather than a bad one.

A .690 record built on Bobby Nash and Derrick Krantz is worth less than a .500 record built on Umar Nurmagomedov and Alex Perez. The first number tells you the UFC picked the right opponents. The second would tell you the roster has grown into the level the promotion has been protecting it from.

Zhang Weili is the only Chinese fighter who has ever held a UFC title, and she got there by beating Jessica Andrade in Shenzhen off a card where the other five home fighters went 4-1 against exactly the tier of opponent I listed above. The pipeline worked once. Whether it works twice depends on nights that look more like Saturday and less like 2017.

Song Yadong has been in the UFC since he was nineteen. He is now fighting a man who has lost one fight in his life. If that goes his way in Shanghai, the 20-9 stops being a matchmaking artifact and starts being a record.