UFC & MMA Blog · Investigations
Gable Steveson is a 19-to-1 favorite over an 0-2 heavyweight
Gable Steveson vs Sean Sharaf at UFC 331: one UFC fight against two knockout losses, priced at -1900, on a pay-per-view main card. The precedent is not kind.
On Saturday night at Crypto.com Arena, the fourth fight on the UFC 331 main card will be Gable Steveson against Sean Sharaf. Steveson has had one fight in the UFC. Sharaf has had two, and was knocked out in both. Between them they have three appearances and one win, and that win came against a man who is 0-2 himself.
I want to be careful here, because none of this is Sharaf's fault, and none of it is Steveson's either. Fighters take the fights they are offered. What follows is about the offer.
The number
Across the 24 sportsbooks we track, the median price on this fight is Steveson -1900, Sharaf +1000. It opened at -1500 and +722, so the money that has come in since has pushed it further apart, not closer together. In plain terms the market is asking you to risk nineteen dollars to win one, and it moved that way on its own.
For a main-card fight on a pay-per-view, that is close to the ceiling. Bo Nickal against Cody Brundage at UFC 300 closed at a median -1692. Benoit Saint Denis against Kyle Prepolec at UFC 315 closed at -1400. Those are the comparison points, and both of them are remembered as showcase bookings rather than fights.
What Sharaf has actually done in the UFC
Sharaf is 33, fights out of Xtreme Couture, and came to the sport late: UFC.com lists his prior career as the US Marines and his first recorded competition of any kind is an amateur bout in June 2019, at 25. He won regional heavyweight titles at Fight Club OC and LXF in 2024, both by first-round stoppage, which is what got him the call.
Inside the UFC his record is two fights and two knockout losses.
- October 12, 2024, against Junior Tafa: TKO, round two, 2:15. Sharaf landed 53 of 118 significant strikes, went 1 for 8 on takedowns, and had 46 seconds of control before the finish.
- December 14, 2025, against Steven Asplund: TKO, round two, 3:49. Asplund landed 170 of 292 significant strikes in under two rounds. Sharaf landed 66 and attempted one takedown.
Absorbing 170 significant strikes inside seven minutes is the sort of line that normally precedes a release, not a promotion. Sharaf's reward was the main card of the biggest show of the fall.
What Steveson actually did in July
Steveson's amateur wrestling résumé is not in dispute and does not need inflating. Olympic gold at 125 kg in Tokyo, won by taking Geno Petriashvili down as the clock expired, 10-8. Two NCAA titles at Minnesota in 2021 and 2022, two Hodge Trophies, four Big Ten titles, a 210-3 high school record in Minnesota with a 171-match winning streak. He is the first American super-heavyweight freestyle Olympic champion since 1992. There is no version of this where the man is not an extraordinary athlete.
His MMA career is one fight long. At UFC 329 on July 11 he stopped Elisha Ellison by TKO at 2:31 of round one, on the prelims. The stat line is the interesting part:
| Steveson vs Ellison, UFC 329 | Steveson | Ellison |
|---|---|---|
| Significant strikes | 41 of 57 | 13 of 33 |
| Takedowns | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Control time | 10 seconds | 0 seconds |
| Knockdowns | 1 | 0 |
The greatest American heavyweight wrestler of his generation attempted one takedown, landed none of them, spent ten seconds in control and won the fight by punching a man in the face. That is a perfectly good way to win. It is also almost no evidence about anything, which is the problem with the next booking being built on top of it.
And Ellison, for the record, is 0-2 in the UFC with two first-round knockout losses, the first to Brando Pericic at 1:55 in Perth last September.
The precedent
I pulled every main-card fighter on a UFC pay-per-view over the last three years and counted how many UFC fights each of them had walked in with. Two others arrived with exactly two appearances and no wins.
Kyle Prepolec was 0-2 when he was matched with Benoit Saint Denis at UFC 315 in May 2025 at a median -1400. He was submitted in round two at 2:35. He has since lost to Drew Dober and Mateusz Rębecki and is 0-5 in the promotion.
Muin Gafurov was 0-2 when he was matched with Said Nurmagomedov at UFC 294 in October 2023. He was submitted in 1:13.
That is the company this booking keeps. It is not a coincidence of scheduling. A fighter with two losses and no wins does not get a pay-per-view main card because of what he has done; he gets it because of who he is standing across from, and because the promotion has decided the other man is worth building.
The part I do not like
I have no problem with a prospect being protected. Every promotion in the history of the sport has fed its investments, boxing has done it for a century, and Steveson at 26 with one professional fight is exactly the kind of athlete who should be brought along slowly.
The objection is where they are doing it. A protected fight belongs on the prelims, where Steveson's first one was, and where the audience understands what it is watching. Putting it fourth on a pay-per-view main card, between Patricio Pitbull against Dooho Choi and Alonzo Menifield against Iwo Baraniewski, asks the customer to pay for it at the same rate as a title fight. The main event on Saturday is Joshua Van defending the flyweight belt against Alexandre Pantoja, a rematch of a 26-second knockout, priced at a near coin flip. Four fights later the same ticket includes a bout the market has already settled at nineteen to one.
The UFC did not hide any of this. The odds are public, both records are public, and nobody has claimed Sharaf is a contender. The card was also thinner than planned once Renato Moicano against Brian Ortega came off on Monday, which is its own story and not one the matchmakers wanted either.
Still, there is a difference between a promotion knowing a fight is a showcase and a promotion charging for it as though it is not.
Steveson will probably win, quickly and impressively, and Dana White will be asked on Saturday night how far away he is. The honest answer will be the same as it was in July: nobody knows, because he has not been asked a question yet.
If you are watching
UFC 331 is at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles on Saturday, September 19. Early prelims start at 21:30 UTC, prelims at 23:00 UTC and the main card at 01:00 UTC on Sunday. The full card, the local start times in your country and the broadcaster list are on the event page.