UFC 333 prelims: where our model and the sportsbooks split

The top of UFC 333 has had its week on this blog, including the three fights where our model had already broken with the market. This piece is about the eight bouts underneath them. The early prelims at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi start at 10 a.m. ET on Saturday, which is 6 p.m. in the building, and the prelims follow at noon ET.

Same ground rules as before. The model's numbers were generated on October 19 against the same two corners each bout carries today. The current line is the UFCalendar consensus across 18 sportsbooks as of Thursday morning; the opening line is the first consensus we logged, which on five of these fights came from a single book. All of it is information only, not betting advice.

The last column is the line as a probability with the bookmakers' cut stripped out. Five of the eight sit within five points of the model. Three flip the pick, and one of those is Dawson at 49.9, a rounding error wearing a disagreement costume. The other two are the story.

Vagaev vs Malkoun: the market is walking toward the model

Jacob Malkoun (10-3) is the underdog at +124. Our model makes him the favorite, at 58.2 percent. What makes this the lead fight is the direction. When the line first went up on October 17, Abubakar Vagaev (25-4) was -185 with Malkoun at +157. It stretched to -200 on the morning of October 19, with 16 books posting. Then it turned: -170 on October 20, -161 by Wednesday, -150 now. With the margin removed, the market has gone from 62.5 percent Vagaev to 57.3. That is still a long way from the model's 41.8, but every step for five days has been in the model's direction.

Vagaev, a career welterweight, is a grinder. His last 11 wins have all gone to the judges, and his last finish dates to May 2017. His UFC debut in July was the template: Saygid Izagakhmaev landed more significant strikes, 33 to 27, and Vagaev took the unanimous decision anyway on 4 of 10 takedowns and 7:46 of control. In his last ACA fight, a five-round decision over Albert Tumenov in February 2025, he held control for 16:16.

The model's biggest objection is the striking: in the UFC, Vagaev lands 1.8 significant strikes a minute at 39 percent accuracy, Malkoun 4.2 at 57. Malkoun also wrestles, 5.39 takedowns per 15 minutes, and comes in on three straight wins. He knocked out Andre Petroski at 0:39 of the second round in March 2024, then came back from a 22-month gap to beat Torrez Finney at UFC 325, landing 117 of 181 significant strikes with a knockdown and three submission attempts. In May he outpointed Gerald Meerschaert and went 3 for 3 on takedowns. So this is a wrestler against a wrestler, and the model's argument is that only one of them does much else.

The pick'em crowd is with the money, 15 of 21 on Vagaev. Trivia for the Australians: Malkoun has already beaten a man on this card, Cam Rowston, at BRACE 47 in March 2017.

Thicknesse vs Chopurov: the number I would not sign

Our model gives Colby Thicknesse (9-1) 60.8 percent. The sportsbooks give him 18.3. That gap, 42.5 points, is wider than in any of the 147 completed UFC bouts since mid-July, Contender Series aside, that carried both a model number and a consensus line. The widest of those was 32.8. And the market is moving away: Thicknesse opened at +387 and is +423, with Asaf Chopurov at -595.

Here is why I don't trust it. Chopurov (11-0) is making his UFC debut, so the model has zero UFC fights for him, and when it ran it did not even have his height or reach on file. What it cannot see: a 35-1 amateur record, 10 of 11 pro wins inside the distance (five by knockout, five by submission), and a first-round stoppage of Reece McLaren in 1:03 at UAE Warriors 72 on July 23. He is 24.

Of the five drivers the model publishes with its number, three lean Chopurov: his 11-0 pre-UFC record against Thicknesse's 7-1, his career win rate, and our Power Index rating, which has Chopurov at 69 percent and which the model flags as resting on a thin sample. The two that lean Thicknesse are a UFC record Chopurov does not have yet and size, where Chopurov's side was blank. The 60.8 comes from the parts of the model that are not itemized. It is a number produced by absence.

Thicknesse, 27, deserves better than being a footnote to a data gap. His one loss is a decision to Aleksandre Topuria at UFC 312, and he has won two straight on the cards since, over Josias Musasa and Vince Morales. The worry is the entry: he is 2 for 28 on takedowns across three UFC fights, against a finisher.

The receipt that matters most: since mid-July, the six biggest gaps between the model and the line have all gone to the betting favorite. Only once did the model pick a fighter the market priced under 25 percent, Tai Tuivasa at +345 against Robelis Despaigne at UFC 331, and Despaigne won a split. Thicknesse is further out than Tuivasa was. The fans are split 10 and 10.

Oki vs Santos: the line left the model behind

This one started in agreement. The line opened on October 19 with 15 books posting, Bolaji Oki at +113 and Daniel Santos at -137: 44.8 percent Oki, margin removed. The model, run the same day, said 44.5. Since then the line has come in on Oki, to -103 against Santos at -118, or 48.4 percent. The model has not followed.

Oki (10-4) is moving to featherweight. Every one of his 14 pro fights before this one was at lightweight, except a catchweight bout in 2018. He arrives on two straight knockout losses: Mason Jones at 3:18 of the second round in September 2025, and Manoel Sousa at 4:12 of the third in March, after Oki had outlanded him 84 to 71 and been dropped twice. That is his UFC profile in one fight: 6.17 significant strikes landed a minute, 5.15 absorbed.

Santos (13-3) is coming off a stoppage too, Dooho Choi at 4:29 of the second round in May, with Santos 0 for 6 on takedowns. Before that he stopped Joo Sang Yoo 21 seconds into the second round at UFC 320 and outworked Jeongyeong Lee with 6 of 18 takedowns.

The model's drivers pull both ways: striking defense and size (a 73-inch reach to 67) lean Oki, grappling and career record lean Santos. The final number lands on Santos at 55.5 percent, and the pick'em crowd agrees, 6 of 10. The market is pricing what six inches of reach and a lower weight class do for Oki. The model is still reading a man who gets hit five times a minute.

Krylov vs Yakhyaev: same pick, smaller blowout

Everyone has Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev (10-0); the question is by how much. No. 15 Nikita Krylov (31-12) opened at +354 and is +389 against -535, 19.5 percent margin removed. Our model gives him 25.5. The fans are harsher than either, 45 of 50 on Yakhyaev.

Krylov is 34 and has lost three of his last four, all by knockout, most recently to Robert Whittaker at 1:01 of the third round at UFC 329 in July. Yakhyaev is 25, and his four fights under the UFC banner, Contender Series 79 included, have lasted a combined 4:02: Alik Lorenz in 29 seconds, Rafael Cerqueira in 33, Brendson Ribeiro in 2:52, Julius Walker in eight. The model sees that too, with Yakhyaev at 11.2 takedowns per 15 minutes to Krylov's 2.2.

So why six points kinder to the veteran? Sample. Strip out the Contender Series and Yakhyaev has 3:33 of UFC cage time, against 22 UFC fights for Krylov. A model built on tape hedges when there is almost none. The market, having watched the same four highlights, does not.

The rest: close enough to call it agreement

Photo: Verisurma / CC0

No. 12 Abus Magomedov (29-7-1) against Cam Rowston (15-3) is the closest thing to a consensus on the card. The line drifted from -115 to -126 on Magomedov, 53.1 percent, and the model says 51.4. Magomedov, 36, answered a submission loss to Joe Pyfer by tapping Michal Oleksiejczuk in the first round in June. Rowston, 31, has won four straight starting at Contender Series 78, three by knockout. The pick'em crowd leans Magomedov, 28 of 37.

Grant Dawson (24-3-1) was No. 13 at lightweight until Manuel Torres knocked him out in 2:25 in December, then submitted Mateusz Rebecki in the third round at UFC 328. Nurullo Aliev (12-0), 25, has won all four of his UFC fights on the scorecards. The market has Dawson at 51.3, the model has Aliev at 50.1, and the fans have Aliev comfortably, 27 of 41.

Kody Steele (8-1) against Noah Gugnon (10-2) barely moved, -159 to -156, 58.3 percent for Steele against the model's 61.3. Steele submitted Dom Mar Fan in the first round in May; Gugnon won his UFC debut in August by submitting Milos Janicic in 1:21.

Iasmin Lucindo (18-6) was No. 7 at strawweight as recently as January and has since dropped off the board; her last fight, a decision over Angela Hill, was 441 days before Saturday. Nicolle Caliari (9-4) came down from flyweight after two losses there and submitted Shauna Bannon in May. Model 80.2 percent Lucindo, market 75.4. The fans, for reasons I cannot reconstruct from any of the above, are split 5 and 5.

Here is what the eight fights add up to. Where the model has real UFC tape on both men, it lands within a few points of the books. Its two big breaks from the market are both about men it has barely seen: Vagaev has 15 minutes in the UFC, Chopurov has none. In one, the market has spent five days walking toward the model. In the other, it keeps walking away. The pick'em is open until the first bell at 10 a.m. ET. Which disagreement do you believe?