Blanchfield vs Jasudavicius odds: what three shared opponents say

Of the 13 fights on Saturday's card in Edmonton, the co-main is the one the market has moved on hardest. The first price we recorded, on October 9, had Erin Blanchfield at -230 and Jasmine Jasudavicius at +192. This morning it is -319 and +249 across 18 sportsbooks. With the margin stripped out, that is Blanchfield going from 67.1 percent to 72.7 in four days.

It is a strange direction for a line to travel. Blanchfield has not fought since November. Jasudavicius is Canadian, fighting in Canada, and has won six of her last seven. The fans on our pick'em are with the market anyway, 7 to 2 for Blanchfield.

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs Malott is Saturday, October 17, at Rogers Place. The main card starts at 8 p.m. ET, and the women's flyweight fight goes on just before Joaquin Buckley and Mike Malott. As always, the odds here are information only, not betting advice. I think the reason for the move is sitting in plain sight, in three names both women have already fought.

Three shared opponents

Against the same three women, Blanchfield went 2-1 and Jasudavicius 1-2. That is not a law of nature, and fights from 2023 are not fights from 2026. But the two losses that line up side by side are as different as losses get. Blanchfield lost a full decision to Fiorot in a main event, outlanded 172 to 130 in significant strikes. Jasudavicius lasted 74 seconds with her, landed two significant strikes and was stopped.

Cortez is the other telling one. Jasudavicius dropped a decision to her in 2023, landing 77 significant strikes to Cortez's 103. Blanchfield, two years later, submitted her in the second round, and got there after holding control for 2:43 of the fight to Cortez's 30 seconds.

The case Jasudavicius has

Photo: MM-eh / CC BY 3.0

None of this makes Jasudavicius (15-4) a pushover, and her record since that Cortez loss is the reason she is in a co-main at all. She is 6-1 in that stretch, and her wins are built on one thing: holding people down. She controlled Priscila Cachoeira for 11:25 of a fight she finished in the third round. She held Fatima Kline for 7:48, Mayra Bueno Silva for 7:11 and, in April, Karine Silva for 8:09 of 15 minutes in a fight in which she landed only 18 significant strikes. Her UFC numbers say the same thing in shorthand: 2.49 takedowns per 15 minutes, landed at 45 percent.

That is how she climbed from No. 15 at the start of 2024 to the edge of the top five. It is also the problem with this matchup. Blanchfield (14-2) stops 78 percent of the takedowns tried on her, the best figure of anyone on the card's top two fights, and she is the more dangerous grappler of the two once it hits the floor, with four UFC wins by submission. Jasudavicius has 0.6 submission attempts per 15 minutes in the UFC; Blanchfield has 0.9 and has finished people with them.

On the feet, Blanchfield throws more and gets hit more. She lands 5.24 significant strikes a minute to Jasudavicius's 3.35 and absorbs 4.25 to Jasudavicius's 3.38, both at 44 percent accuracy. If Jasudavicius cannot get the takedown, she is in a volume fight with a woman who out-lands her by almost two significant strikes a minute.

The layoff, and the last time they were both here

The one thing that should have held the line in place is time. Blanchfield's submission of Cortez at UFC 322 in New York was on November 15, eleven months before Saturday. She is 27; Jasudavicius is 37.

The other thing worth knowing is that both of them have done this in this building. On November 2, 2024, at Rogers Place, Blanchfield beat Rose Namajunas by unanimous decision, controlling her for 8:54. On the same card Jasudavicius submitted Ariane Lipski da Silva in the third round, and Malott, the man headlining this week, beat Trevin Giles. Edmonton has already seen what each of them looks like on a good night.

What it has not seen is the two of them together. Blanchfield has been in the top five for most of the last two and a half years, and before the Fiorot loss she was No. 2. A win over a fighter with Jasudavicius's ranking does not move her much. A loss would cost her nearly everything she rebuilt with the Namajunas and Cortez wins. That asymmetry is usually where upsets live, and the market has priced it at about one in four.

I would not argue with the line's direction. The line has made up its mind about Jasudavicius. She has spent the last two and a half years making people who had made up their minds about her look early.

The full odds history, the fight-by-fight stats and the pick'em are on the event page, and the women's flyweight board is at /rankings/womens-flyweight. I wrote about the main event here.