Ultimate Fighting Calendar
Lightweight3 rounds scheduled
WIN
Grant Dawson
KGD
24-3-1
RESULT

Grant Dawson def. Mateusz Rębecki (Submission)

Submission · Round 3 · 4:42
Saturday, May 9, 2026
Prudential Center, Newark, United States

Grant Dawson defeated Mateusz Rębecki by Submission in round 3 (4:42) in the Lightweight bout of UFC 328: Chimaev vs Strickland, held Saturday, May 9, 2026 at Prudential Center, Newark.

Fight stats

Grant Dawson
Mateusz Rębecki
0
Knockdowns
1
35 of 94
Significant strikes
33 of 64
37%
Sig. strike accuracy
52%
71 of 136
Total strikes
49 of 81
1 of 3
Takedowns
1 of 5
33%
Takedown accuracy
20%
4
Submission attempts
0
0
Reversals
1
7:08
Control time
2:22
Significant strikes by target
19 of 67
Head
27 of 56
14 of 23
Body
1 of 2
2 of 4
Leg
5 of 6
24 of 81
Distance
27 of 50
6 of 7
Clinch
4 of 4
5 of 6
Ground
2 of 10

By round

ROUND 1
0
KD
0
13 of 21
Sig. str.
8 of 11
24 of 35
Total str.
9 of 12
0 of 0
Takedowns
0 of 2
1
Sub. att
0
2:37
Ctrl
0:50
ROUND 2
0
KD
1
20 of 69
Sig. str.
24 of 51
21 of 70
Total str.
34 of 62
0 of 2
Takedowns
1 of 3
0
Sub. att
0
0:14
Ctrl
1:29
ROUND 3
0
KD
0
2 of 4
Sig. str.
1 of 2
26 of 31
Total str.
6 of 7
1 of 1
Takedowns
0 of 0
3
Sub. att
0
4:17
Ctrl
0:03

Betting Odds

Grant Dawson
-145
59% implied win probability
Open: -143Best: -135
Mateusz Rębecki
+124
45% implied win probability
Open: +106Best: +138

Average moneyline across 23 sportsbooks.

SportsbookGrant DawsonMateusz Rębecki
4casters-143+136
4Cx-146+131
Bet105-148+130
BetAnything-140+110
BetMGM-150+125
BetOnline-140+120
BetRivers-143+115
BetUS-135+114
Betway-150+120
Bookmaker-142+122
Bovada-142+122
Caesars-150+125
Circa-147+127
Cloudbet-149+120
DraftKings-148+124
FanDuel-146+124
HardRockBet-145+115
MyBookie-147+120
Pinnacle-147+130
Polymarket-138+133
ProphetX-142+138
Stake-152+119
SXBet-151+135

Odds are for information only. · Odds data: fightodds.io

Frequently asked questions

Who won Grant Dawson vs Mateusz Rębecki?

Grant Dawson defeated Mateusz Rębecki by Submission in round 3 (4:42) in the Lightweight bout of UFC 328: Chimaev vs Strickland, held Saturday, May 9, 2026 at Prudential Center, Newark.

Referee
Mike Beltran
Time format
3 Rnd (5-5-5)
Pre-fight comparison

Win probability

Grant Dawson 51%49% Mateusz Rębecki

What the model gave each fighter going into the fight, from their pre-fight UFCalendar Power Index ratings. See the full Power Index

Fight DNA

Head to head

UFCalendar's style model · Lightweight roster (24 fighters)

Grant Dawson
Grappling Specialist
7 edges
Mateusz Rębecki
Grappling Specialist
4 edges
PowerSpeedPrecisionDurabilityEngineWrestlingGround

Radar scaled to this matchup · bars show the gap

Style shape

89Power83
88Speed87
92Precision73
90Durability85
94Engine83
92Wrestling96
94Ground91

Biggest edge Grant Dawson, Kick power +20

Attribute by attribute

Grant Dawson is on the left of every row, Mateusz Rębecki on the right.
90Punch power97
88Kick power68
87Punch speed95
89Kick speed78
92Accuracy73
92Takedowns96
93Ground striking95
94Submissions87
92Chin91
88Body strength79
94Cardio83

Attributes are rated 0-100 by UFCalendar's style model.

Tale of the Tape

24-3-1
Record
21-5-0
1851
Power Index rating
1845
1
Win Streak
1
32
Age
33
5'10"
178 cm
Height
5'7"
170 cm
72"
183 cm
Reach
66"
168 cm
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
Lightweight
Weight Class
Lightweight
United States
Nationality
Poland

Striking Profile

3.14
SLpM
5.28
51%
Str. Acc.
49%
2.14
SApM
4.19
44%
Str. Def.
54%

Grappling Profile

3.58
TD Avg.
3.05
39%
TD Acc.
50%
66%
TD Def.
53%
1.40
Sub. Avg.
0.40

Recent form (last 5 fights)

Grant Dawson · 4-1
  • W
    UFC 328: Chimaev vs Strickland · May 9, 2026
    Submission · R3 · 4:42 · Lightweight
  • L
    UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs Yan 2 · Dec 6, 2025
    TKO · R1 · 2:25 · Lightweight
  • W
    UFC 311: Makhachev vs Moicano · Jan 18, 2025
    Unanimous Decision · R3 · 5:00 · Lightweight
  • W
    UFC Fight Night: Royval vs Taira · Oct 12, 2024
    TKO · R2 · 1:42 · Lightweight
  • W
    UFC 302: Makhachev vs Poirier · Jun 1, 2024
    Unanimous Decision · R3 · 5:00 · Lightweight
Mateusz Rębecki · 2-3
  • W
    UFC Fight Night: Medić vs Rodriguez · Aug 1, 2026
    TKO · R1 · 4:41 · Lightweight
  • L
    UFC 328: Chimaev vs Strickland · May 9, 2026
    Submission · R3 · 4:42 · Lightweight
  • L
    UFC 321: Aspinall vs Gane · Oct 25, 2025
    Majority Decision · R3 · 5:00 · Lightweight
  • L
    UFC Fight Night: Taira vs Park · Aug 2, 2025
    Unanimous Decision · R3 · 5:00 · Lightweight
  • W
    UFC 308: Topuria vs Holloway · Oct 26, 2024
    Split Decision · R3 · 5:00 · Catchweight

Career Averages

Based on 15 fights · 9 fights
35.2
Avg sig. strikes
63.3
2.73
Avg takedowns
2.22
7:22
Avg control time
3:22
57
Career high strikes
114
7
Career high TDs
4

Strike Distribution

Grant Dawson
Strike target
Mateusz Rębecki
69%
Head
72%
19%
Body
15%
13%
Leg
13%
Grant Dawson
Strike position
Mateusz Rębecki
50%
Distance
71%
10%
Clinch
5%
40%
Ground
25%