Ultimate Fighting Calendar
CatchweightFight of the Night3 rounds scheduled
RESULT

Mateusz Rębecki def. Myktybek Orolbai (Split Decision)

Split Decision · Round 3 · 5:00
Saturday, October 26, 2024
Etihad Arena, Yas Island/Yas West, United Arab Emirates

Mateusz Rębecki defeated Myktybek Orolbai by Split Decision in round 3 (5:00) in the Catchweight bout of UFC 308: Topuria vs Holloway, held Saturday, October 26, 2024 at Etihad Arena, Yas Island/Yas West. The judges scored it 29-28, 29-28, 28-29, Mateusz Rębecki won the decision.

Fight stats

Mateusz Rębecki
Myktybek Orolbai
1
Knockdowns
0
71 of 146
Significant strikes
61 of 135
49%
Sig. strike accuracy
45%
93 of 174
Total strikes
85 of 162
3 of 4
Takedowns
2 of 5
75%
Takedown accuracy
40%
0
Submission attempts
0
0
Reversals
1
2:24
Control time
2:05
Significant strikes by target
52 of 123
Head
46 of 114
10 of 11
Body
6 of 11
9 of 12
Leg
9 of 10
54 of 126
Distance
60 of 133
5 of 6
Clinch
0 of 1
12 of 14
Ground
1 of 1

By round

ROUND 1
0
KD
0
27 of 57
Sig. str.
22 of 51
27 of 57
Total str.
22 of 51
0 of 1
Takedowns
0 of 0
0
Sub. att
0
0:00
Ctrl
0:00
ROUND 2
0
KD
0
23 of 55
Sig. str.
25 of 57
24 of 56
Total str.
28 of 61
0 of 0
Takedowns
1 of 4
0
Sub. att
0
0:15
Ctrl
0:44
ROUND 3
1
KD
0
21 of 34
Sig. str.
14 of 27
42 of 61
Total str.
35 of 50
3 of 3
Takedowns
1 of 1
0
Sub. att
0
2:09
Ctrl
1:21

Judges' Scorecards

#RębeckiOrolbai
1109
2910
3109
Total2928
#RębeckiOrolbai
1109
2910
3109
Total2928
#RębeckiOrolbai
1109
2910
3910
Total2829

Media Scores

10
Rębecki
-
1
Orolbai
29-28 Rębecki×930-27 Rębecki29-28 Orolbai
All 11 media scorecards

Fan Scorecards

74%
Rębecki
3%
Draw
23%
Orolbai
315 fan scorecards submitted
29-28 Rębecki66%29-28 Orolbai22.2%30-27 Rębecki3.5%29-27 Rębecki2.9%
Fans' round-by-round verdict
R1
88%
Rębecki
R2
91%
Orolbai
R3
75%
Rębecki

Scorecard data via mmadecisions.com

Betting Odds

Mateusz Rębecki
+195
34% implied win probability
Open: +195Best: +250
Myktybek Orolbai
+113
47% implied win probability
Open: -237Best: +1000

Average moneyline across 15 sportsbooks.

SportsbookMateusz RębeckiMyktybek Orolbai
4casters+235-246
BetAnything+225-265
BetMGM+250-350
BetOnline+230-270
BetRivers+250-335
BetUS+210-260
Betway-333+220
Bovada+240-290
Caesars+205-250
Cloudbet+209-324
DraftKings-2100+1000
FanDuel+190-230
MyBookie+199-250
Pinnacle+240-286
SXBet+210-274

Odds are for information only. · Odds data: fightodds.io

Frequently asked questions

Who won Mateusz Rębecki vs Myktybek Orolbai?

Mateusz Rębecki defeated Myktybek Orolbai by Split Decision in round 3 (5:00) in the Catchweight bout of UFC 308: Topuria vs Holloway, held Saturday, October 26, 2024 at Etihad Arena, Yas Island/Yas West. The judges scored it 29-28, 29-28, 28-29, Mateusz Rębecki won the decision.

What were the judges' scorecards for Mateusz Rębecki vs Myktybek Orolbai?

The judges scored it 29-28, 29-28, 28-29, Mateusz Rębecki won the decision.

Was Mateusz Rębecki vs Myktybek Orolbai a robbery?

Public scoring backed the judges: 74% of 315 fan cards scored it for Mateusz Rębecki; 91% of 11 media scores picked Mateusz Rębecki.

Full robbery index
Referee
Vitor Ribeiro
Time format
3 Rnd (5-5-5)
Pre-fight comparison

Win probability

Mateusz Rębecki 61%39% Myktybek Orolbai

What the model gave each fighter going into the fight, from their pre-fight UFCalendar Power Index ratings. See the full Power Index

Fight DNA

Head to head

UFCalendar's style model. Each fighter is rated against their own division, so read the gaps as directional.

Mateusz Rębecki
Grappling Specialist
7 edges
Myktybek Orolbai
Grappling Specialist
3 edges
PowerSpeedPrecisionDurabilityEngineWrestlingGround

Radar scaled to this matchup · bars show the gap

Style shape

83Power76
87Speed55
73Precision48
85Durability78
83Engine84
96Wrestling98
91Ground96

Biggest edge Mateusz Rębecki, Punch speed +45

Attribute by attribute

Mateusz Rębecki is on the left of every row, Myktybek Orolbai on the right.
97Punch power95
68Kick power56
95Punch speed50
78Kick speed60
73Accuracy48
96Takedowns98
95Ground striking95
87Submissions96
91Chin82
79Body strength73
83Cardio84

Attributes are rated 0-100 by UFCalendar's style model.

Tale of the Tape

21-5-0
Record
16-2-1
1866
Power Index rating
1792
1
Win Streak
3
33
Age
28
5'7"
170 cm
Height
5'10"
178 cm
66"
168 cm
Reach
74"
188 cm
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Catchweight
Weight Class
Catchweight
Poland
Nationality
Kyrgyzstan

Striking Profile

5.28
SLpM
2.78
49%
Str. Acc.
50%
4.19
SApM
2.70
54%
Str. Def.
51%

Grappling Profile

3.05
TD Avg.
8.77
50%
TD Acc.
59%
53%
TD Def.
40%
0.40
Sub. Avg.
0.50

Recent form (last 5 fights)

Mateusz Rębecki · 2-3
  • W
    UFC Fight Night: Medić vs Rodriguez · Aug 1, 2026
    TKO · R1 · 4:41 · Lightweight
  • L
    UFC 328: Chimaev vs Strickland · May 9, 2026
    Submission · R3 · 4:42 · Lightweight
  • L
    UFC 321: Aspinall vs Gane · Oct 25, 2025
    Majority Decision · R3 · 5:00 · Lightweight
  • L
    UFC Fight Night: Taira vs Park · Aug 2, 2025
    Unanimous Decision · R3 · 5:00 · Lightweight
  • W
    UFC 308: Topuria vs Holloway · Oct 26, 2024
    Split Decision · R3 · 5:00 · Catchweight
Myktybek Orolbai · 4-1
  • W
    UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs Vallejos · Mar 14, 2026
    Unanimous Decision · R3 · 5:00 · Welterweight
  • W
    UFC Qatar: Tsarukyan vs Hooker · Nov 22, 2025
    TKO · R1 · 2:46 · Welterweight
  • W
    UFC Fight Night: Hill vs Rountree Jr. · Jun 21, 2025
    Submission · R1 · 4:35 · Catchweight
  • L
    UFC 308: Topuria vs Holloway · Oct 26, 2024
    Split Decision · R3 · 5:00 · Catchweight
  • W
    UFC 301: Pantoja vs Erceg · May 4, 2024
    Unanimous Decision · R3 · 5:00 · Lightweight

Career Averages

Based on 9 fights · 6 fights
63.3
Avg sig. strikes
28.5
2.22
Avg takedowns
6.00
3:22
Avg control time
5:30
114
Career high strikes
65
4
Career high TDs
19

Strike Distribution

Mateusz Rębecki
Strike target
Myktybek Orolbai
72%
Head
75%
15%
Body
13%
13%
Leg
12%
Mateusz Rębecki
Strike position
Myktybek Orolbai
71%
Distance
67%
5%
Clinch
4%
25%
Ground
30%