UFCalendar
UFC & MMA Blog
Analysis, explainers, and stories written on top of UFCalendar's live MMA database.
Archive· Page 12
Investigations
Can Ian Machado Garry decision his way to Makhachev's belt?
Ian Machado Garry enters UFC 330 on six straight decisions. Our sweep of every UFC title fight shows challengers like him almost never win the belt.
Aug 12, 2026 · 6 min read
Investigations
What 14 years of line movement says about the UFC betting market
We analyzed line movement across 6,210 UFC fights since 2012. The side the money moves toward wins more often than the odds imply, and the gap is growing.
Aug 11, 2026 · 6 min read
News
UFC 330 odds: Makhachev's price on Machado Garry keeps sliding
UFC 330 odds tracker: Islam Makhachev opened near -390 on Ian Machado Garry in March. Five months of line movement have the champion at -340 on fight week.
Aug 11, 2026 · 2 min read
Investigations
Dern vs Robertson: the numbers under UFC 330's other title fight
Mackenzie Dern defends the strawweight title against Gillian Robertson at UFC 330. The streaks, submission stats, and odds behind Saturday's co-main event.
Aug 11, 2026 · 5 min read
Recaps
RIZIN 54 results: Sato upsets Patchy Mix, Akimoto beats Koike
RIZIN 54 results from Tokyo: Shoko Sato hands Patchy Mix a fourth straight loss and 20-year-old Kyoma Akimoto outpoints Kleber Koike Erbst in the main event.
Aug 11, 2026 · 5 min read
News
UFC 330 card changes: four bouts gone in eleven days
UFC 330 card changes tracked hour by hour: Blanchfield off, Geoff Neal out, a main-card flyweight bout that lasted 104 minutes, and the card as it stands today.
Aug 10, 2026 · 3 min read
Investigations
Ten fighters won a second UFC belt. Seven defended it
Islam Makhachev defends the welterweight title at UFC 330. Across 482 UFC title fights, two-division champions have a strange record with the second belt.
Aug 10, 2026 · 6 min read
Previews
RIZIN 54 preview: Kleber Koike Erbst vs Kyoma Akimoto
RIZIN 54 predictions from Tokyo: Kleber Koike Erbst is an underdog against Kyoma Akimoto, plus odds, recent form and picks for all eleven bouts on the card.
Aug 10, 2026 · 5 min read
Recaps
Salkilld submits Gamrot in 4:25: UFC Fight Night results
UFC Fight Night results and analysis: Quillan Salkilld submitted Mateusz Gamrot in round one, and 11 of 12 bouts went the way the betting board called it.
Aug 9, 2026 · 4 min read
Editorials
UFC rankings lag the market, and Saturday proved it twice
No. 12 beat No. 8 twice on one UFC card, and both times the lower-ranked fighter was the betting favorite. The panel is four places behind the board.
Aug 9, 2026 · 4 min read
News
UFC Fight Night payouts: how much did Salkilld and Gamrot make?
UFC Fight Night payouts and bonuses: $525,000 paid out, four $100,000 awards and five $25,000 finish incentives. Who earned what, and what the UFC never discloses.
Aug 9, 2026 · 4 min read
Previews
Gamrot vs Salkilld parlay: the legs our model refused to add
Our model built two Gamrot vs Salkilld tickets, at 9.03x and 15.00x. The math offered a bigger number. Here is every leg we left off, and the rule that removed it.
Aug 8, 2026 · 6 min read
Previews
Gamrot vs Salkilld: where our model splits from the board
Gamrot vs Salkilld predictions: our model disagrees with 25 sportsbooks on four fights tonight, and marks down every favorite priced above 70 percent.
Aug 8, 2026 · 7 min read
Investigations
When do UFC fighters get washed? 16,429 fights name two culprits
We tracked 16,429 UFC appearances to find when fighters get washed. Age and knockdowns absorbed predict the fall; cage time and strikes eaten do not.
Aug 7, 2026 · 8 min read
Technique
Gamrot vs Salkilld: how you out-wrestle a 26-fight wrestler
Gamrot vs Salkilld breakdown: Salkilld lands more takedowns per 15 minutes than Gamrot, and 19 attempts bought Gamrot two minutes on Dariush.
Aug 7, 2026 · 6 min read
Previews
UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld preview and predictions
Gamrot is the No. 8 lightweight and the underdog against unbeaten-in-the-UFC Quillan Salkilld. Full card picks, odds and start times for Saturday at the Apex.
Aug 6, 2026 · 6 min read
Investigations
Octagon experience is an anti-predictor: 1,379 fights say so
Across three years of UFC results, the more experienced fighter wins 43.9 percent of the time. Saturday's Apex card is built entirely on that gap.
Aug 6, 2026 · 6 min read
Investigations
What 34,509 judged rounds show: the 10-8 is vanishing again
A 2017 rules revision made UFC judges use the 10-8 round. By 2025 they used it less than before the reform, and the four busiest judges all drove it.
Aug 5, 2026 · 7 min read
Investigations
Amanda Lemos is No. 8, and a 2-to-1 underdog to No. 12
Since 2013 the betting market has favored the lower-ranked fighter in 603 ranked UFC matchups and won 63 percent of them. Lemos vs Thainara is next.
Aug 5, 2026 · 8 min read
Editorials
Usman Nurmagomedov to the UFC: the case for and against 22-0
Usman Nurmagomedov's 22 opponents were a combined 239-88, and 18 had winning records. What the UFC is really signing, and the honest case against it.
Aug 4, 2026 · 6 min read
News
UFC 330 loses Blanchfield vs Jasudavicius, with no replacement
The No. 4 vs No. 7 women's flyweight bout came off UFC 330 on July 27 with no replacement, and our change log dates every other UFC card move this week.
Aug 4, 2026 · 3 min read
Investigations
Salkilld's 24 minutes: why the market likes him over Gamrot
Quillan Salkilld has 24:20 of Octagon time and four bonuses in five fights. The market favors him over No. 8 Mateusz Gamrot. Our Elo rating does not.
Aug 4, 2026 · 5 min read
Editorials
141 UFC fights: the veterans on the next two cards
Elkins, Ferreira, Magny, Barboza and Luque bring 141 UFC appearances and 52 bonuses to two August cards. Magny is one walkout from sole third all-time.
Aug 4, 2026 · 4 min read
Previews
Makhachev vs Machado Garry: 61 percent, or 77?
The market prices Islam Makhachev at 77 percent to beat Ian Machado Garry at UFC 330. Our Power Index says 61. The takedown numbers explain the gap.
Aug 4, 2026 · 4 min read