RIZIN 54 preview: Kleber Koike Erbst vs Kyoma Akimoto
RIZIN 54 predictions from Tokyo: Kleber Koike Erbst is an underdog against Kyoma Akimoto, plus odds, recent form and picks for all eleven bouts on the card.
RIZIN 54 runs Tuesday at the Toyota Arena Tokyo in Koto, which for most of the English-speaking audience means Monday night into Tuesday morning. Eleven fights, five on the main card, and a main event where the most decorated man in the building is a betting underdog. RIZIN.TV and FITE carry it internationally; ABEMA, U-NEXT and SKY PerfecTV! have it in Japan, and the full country list is on our how to watch page. Local start times for your timezone are on the event page.
I will say up front that I have been wrong about Kleber Koike Erbst before, in both directions, so read what follows accordingly.
Kleber Koike Erbst (36-9-1) vs Kyoma Akimoto, featherweight
Koike has 36 professional wins and a submission game that has been ending Japanese main events for a decade. The 2024 highlight is still the inverted heel hook that folded Juan Archuleta in the first round in June of that year, and he closed 2025 by out-pointing Vugar Karamov on New Year's Eve. The problem is what sits between those two results: a first-round knockout loss to Rajabali Shaidullaev in May 2025 and a split-decision loss to Mikuru Asakura in July. Two fights, both bad, both against pressure.
Kyoma Akimoto has won five straight and none of them went the distance except one. Since dropping a decision to Yuki Motoya on New Year's Eve 2024 he has beaten Ryo Takagi on the cards, submitted Koki Akada with a rear naked choke in the first, stopped Kyohei Hagiwara, knocked out Suguru Nii with a knee to the body inside a round, and then in March did the thing that put him here: a second-round TKO of Patrick Mix with punches and soccer kicks. That is not a hot streak against tomato cans. That is a man solving problems in different ways every three months.
The market has Akimoto at -243 and Koike at +182, and I understand why. I also think it is slightly too wide. Koike's route is not a mystery, it is a scramble and a neck, and Akimoto's aggression is exactly the profile that has fed Koike his best finishes. But the two losses on Koike's recent record came against fighters who walked him down, and Akimoto walks people down for a living.
Prediction: Akimoto by TKO, round two, with Koike live at +182 for anyone who wants the submission ticket.
Shoko Sato (38-17-2) vs Patrick Mix, bantamweight
Fifty-seven professional fights for Shoko Sato, which is a career and a half, and he is somehow still finishing people: a first-round triangle choke on John Sweeney in March. Before that he split a pair, beating Soo Chul Kim on the cards last May and dropping a split decision to Danny Sabatello in September.
Mix comes in off the Akimoto knockout, which is the sort of loss that either sharpens a wrestler or hollows him out, and there is no way to know which from the outside. He is a -313 favorite here, which prices that defeat as an aberration rather than a trend.
I keep going back and forth on this one. Sato at +225 against a man who just got soccer-kicked into next week is the best-priced ticket on the card, and if this fight hits the mat with Mix loose in transition, the veteran has the neck. But Sato has been finished plenty and the miles are real.
Prediction: Mix by decision, and I do not feel good about it.
Yuki Ito (20-7) vs Alibek Gadzhammatov (6-1), flyweight
Gadzhammatov has seven pro fights and RIZIN already has him at -253 over a man with 27. He earned it: a first-round TKO on Daichi Kitakata in November 2024, a third-round TKO on Takaki Soya last July, and a competitive unanimous-decision loss to Hiromasa Ougikubo in September that is the only blemish on his record.
Ito opened 2026 by head-kicking Carlos Mota out in the first round, which is the version of him that beats anybody at this weight. The other version lost decisions to Erson Yamamoto and Makoto Takahashi inside the last 15 months. Eight of his last ten have gone to the cards.
Prediction: Gadzhammatov by TKO, round three.
Mikio Ueda (5-3) vs King Edokpolo, heavyweight
Japanese heavyweight, so calibrate expectations to the division rather than the sport. Ueda owns the best win between them, a second-round stoppage of Tsuyoshi Sudario on New Year's Eve 2023 with knees and punches. Edokpolo is the -256 favorite on the back of a second-round TKO of Ryo Sakai in March 2025.
Nobody in this fight is going to out-technique anybody. Somebody is going to land first.
Prediction: Edokpolo by TKO, round one.
Tsuyoshi Sudario (9-4) vs Ryo Sakai (15-15), heavyweight
At -670, Sudario is the biggest favorite on the card, and the number is not an insult to Sakai so much as a description of his last two nights: knocked out in the first by Satoshi Kamiyama in June, stopped in the second by Edokpolo in March 2025. Sudario has his own problems, including a decision loss to Jose Augusto in May 2025 and the Ueda stoppage on New Year's Eve 2023, but he has not been the one getting flattened lately.
Prediction: Sudario by TKO, round one.
The prelims, quickly
Six fights, and the one worth setting an alarm for is Kazumasa Majima vs Koji Takeda at featherweight, the tightest line on the card at +131 and -171. Joji Goto vs Azizbek Temirov and Joe Hiramoto vs Ryoma Shishimoto are both priced around two to one for the favorite. Naoki Tanaka is a -382 favorite over Issa Hosokawa at a 152-pound catchweight, Arata Mizuno is a modest favorite over Kaiwen Li, and Keito Oyama vs Noeru Narita at 108 pounds is the sort of fight RIZIN puts on that nobody else in the world would.
That is a card with one genuine crossroads fight, two heavyweight coin flips, and a main event where a 36-win submission artist is getting money. RIZIN in August, basically.
Card, records, odds and finish rates for all eleven bouts are on the RIZIN 54 page.