UFC 330 odds: Makhachev's price on Machado Garry keeps sliding
UFC 330 odds tracker: Islam Makhachev opened near -390 on Ian Machado Garry in March. Five months of line movement have the champion at -340 on fight week.
Islam Makhachev is getting cheaper to fade. When our odds tracker logged its first prices on the UFC 330 main event back on February 19, Makhachev was a -370 favorite over Ian Machado Garry, and by March 7 the consensus had stretched to -390. On Tuesday of fight week the same consensus sits at -340, with Garry at +272. Five months of trading, and nearly all of it has gone one way.
Photo: Oisinvg / CC BY 3.0
The shape of the move, from our daily consensus history:
| Date | Makhachev | Machado Garry |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 19 | -370 | +285 |
| Mar 7 | -390 | +300 |
| Jun 17 | -320 | +262 |
| Jun 23 | -372 | +281 |
| Jul 28 | -332 | +255 |
| Aug 7 | -367 | +286 |
| Aug 11 | -340 | +272 |
It has not been a straight line. The number firmed back toward the champion through late June, softened through July to a low of -332, spiked to -367 on August 7, and then gave back 26 points between Friday and Monday, which happened to be the stretch when the card churn we covered on Monday was at its busiest. I am not going to pretend I know whose money did that. The tracker logs prices, not intentions.
What the book-level board shows right now is real disagreement about the champion. Of the 25 books we track, 4casters has Makhachev shortest at -309 and FanDuel longest at -390, an 81 point spread on the same fight four days out. Garry backers can find +300 on Polymarket, +290 at Bovada, and +285 at ProphetX, while the stingiest shop on the challenger is 4Cx at +241.
For context on what is being priced: Makhachev is 28-1 and the reigning welterweight champion, and Garry, ranked #2 at welterweight on the official board, is 17-1 with the only loss a unanimous decision against Shavkat Rakhmonov in December 2024, followed by back to back wins over Carlos Prates and Belal Muhammad. A -390 price in March said Garry wins this fight about one time in five. The -340 consensus today says closer to one in four, and the best available +300 says the market's most Garry-curious corner has him at one in four exactly. Nobody has moved off Makhachev winning. The argument is entirely about how often.
Whether that drift is sharp money, Irish money, or just five months of a challenger's highlight reel doing its quiet work, the number that matters gets settled Saturday. UFC 330 goes down August 15 at Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia, with Makhachev vs Machado Garry on top and Mackenzie Dern defending the strawweight title against Gillian Robertson in the co-main. Live odds for every bout are on our event page.