Ultimate Fighting Calendar
Middleweight3 rounds scheduled
WIN
Rafael Natal
Sapo
21-9-1
RESULT

Rafael Natal def. Kevin Casey (TKO)

TKO · Round 3 · 3:37
Kevin Casey
King
9-5-2 (2 NC)
Sunday, January 31, 2016
Prudential Center, Newark, United States

Rafael Natal defeated Kevin Casey by TKO in round 3 (3:37) in the Middleweight bout of UFC Fight Night: Johnson vs Bader, held Sunday, January 31, 2016 at Prudential Center, Newark.

Fight stats

Rafael Natal
Kevin Casey
1
Knockdowns
0
54 of 87
Significant strikes
16 of 49
62%
Sig. strike accuracy
33%
123 of 168
Total strikes
30 of 64
4 of 7
Takedowns
0 of 2
57%
Takedown accuracy
0%
0
Submission attempts
0
0
Reversals
0
5:31
Control time
2:09
Significant strikes by target
43 of 74
Head
10 of 41
5 of 7
Body
5 of 6
6 of 6
Leg
1 of 2
16 of 35
Distance
12 of 45
7 of 9
Clinch
4 of 4
31 of 43
Ground
0 of 0

By round

ROUND 1
1
KD
0
7 of 15
Sig. str.
10 of 30
22 of 31
Total str.
17 of 38
1 of 4
Takedowns
0 of 1
0
Sub. att
0
0:35
Ctrl
1:33
ROUND 2
0
KD
0
24 of 33
Sig. str.
2 of 7
59 of 74
Total str.
9 of 14
2 of 2
Takedowns
0 of 1
0
Sub. att
0
3:12
Ctrl
0:36
ROUND 3
0
KD
0
23 of 39
Sig. str.
4 of 12
42 of 63
Total str.
4 of 12
1 of 1
Takedowns
0 of 0
0
Sub. att
0
1:44
Ctrl
0:00

Betting Odds

Rafael Natal
-187
65% implied win probability
Open: -157Best: -185
Kevin Casey
+155
39% implied win probability
Open: +133Best: +160

Average moneyline across 2 sportsbooks.

SportsbookRafael NatalKevin Casey
Bookmaker-189+160
Bovada-185+150

Odds are for information only. · Odds data: fightodds.io

Frequently asked questions

Who won Rafael Natal vs Kevin Casey?

Rafael Natal defeated Kevin Casey by TKO in round 3 (3:37) in the Middleweight bout of UFC Fight Night: Johnson vs Bader, held Sunday, January 31, 2016 at Prudential Center, Newark.

Referee
Gary Copeland
Time format
3 Rnd (5-5-5)
Pre-fight comparison

Win probability

Rafael Natal 61%39% Kevin Casey

What the model gave each fighter going into the fight, from their pre-fight UFCalendar Power Index ratings. See the full Power Index

Fight DNA

Head to head

UFCalendar's style model · Middleweight roster (229 fighters)

Rafael Natal
Grappling Specialist
8 edges
Kevin Casey
Knockout Artist
3 edges
PowerSpeedPrecisionDurabilityEngineWrestlingGround

Radar scaled to this matchup · bars show the gap

Style shape

81Power94
84Speed67
85Precision55
84Durability73
93Engine64
98Wrestling86
94Ground90

Biggest edge Rafael Natal, Accuracy +30

Attribute by attribute

Rafael Natal is on the left of every row, Kevin Casey on the right.
70Punch power93
91Kick power94
75Punch speed60
93Kick speed73
85Accuracy55
98Takedowns86
95Ground striking97
92Submissions82
72Chin63
95Body strength82
93Cardio64

Attributes are rated 0-100 by UFCalendar's style model.

Tale of the Tape

21-9-1
Record
9-5-2 (2 NC)
1747
Power Index rating
1667
0
Win Streak
0
43
Age
45
6'0"
183 cm
Height
5'11"
180 cm
77"
196 cm
Reach
77"
196 cm
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Middleweight
Weight Class
Middleweight
Brazil
Nationality
United States

Style Matchup

BJJ
vs
-
Rafael Natal
  • Black belt · BJJ · Vinicius "Draculino" Magalhaes and Renzo Gracie
  • Ring of Combat Middleweight Championship · Ring of Combat
  • 2005Champion · IBJJF Worlds · blue belt
  • Gracie Barra Belo Horizonte · Brazilian jiu Jitsu · 2003-2008

Camp Renzo Gracie Academy · New York City, US

Kevin Casey

No background on record

Striking Profile

3.10
SLpM
2.27
47%
Str. Acc.
53%
2.48
SApM
3.76
57%
Str. Def.
46%

Grappling Profile

2.55
TD Avg.
0.79
34%
TD Acc.
22%
77%
TD Def.
27%
0.50
Sub. Avg.
0.40

Recent form (last 5 fights)

Rafael Natal · 2-3
  • L
    UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs Gastelum · Jul 23, 2017
    TKO · R1 · 2:54 · Middleweight
  • L
    UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor · Nov 13, 2016
    TKO · R1 · 3:22 · Middleweight
  • L
    UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux · Apr 23, 2016
    Unanimous Decision · R3 · 5:00 · Middleweight
  • W
    UFC Fight Night: Johnson vs Bader · Jan 31, 2016
    TKO · R3 · 3:37 · Middleweight
  • W
    UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier · May 23, 2015
    Split Decision · R3 · 5:00 · Middleweight
Kevin Casey · 2-3

Career Averages

Based on 17 fights · 5 fights
38.6
Avg sig. strikes
31.0
2.12
Avg takedowns
0.60
3:09
Avg control time
3:31
73
Career high strikes
59
8
Career high TDs
2

Strike Distribution

Rafael Natal
Strike target
Kevin Casey
58%
Head
57%
14%
Body
24%
28%
Leg
19%
Rafael Natal
Strike position
Kevin Casey
66%
Distance
56%
12%
Clinch
13%
22%
Ground
31%