Ultimate Fighting Calendar
Lightweight3 rounds scheduled
Terrance McKinney
T. Wrecks
18-9-0
RESULT

Chris Duncan def. Terrance McKinney (Submission)

Submission · Round 1 · 2:30
WIN
Chris Duncan
The Problem
15-3-0
Saturday, December 6, 2025
T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, United States

Chris Duncan defeated Terrance McKinney by Submission in round 1 (2:30) in the Lightweight bout of UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs Yan 2, held Saturday, December 6, 2025 at T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas.

Fight stats

Terrance McKinney
Chris Duncan
0
Knockdowns
1
31 of 57
Significant strikes
38 of 55
54%
Sig. strike accuracy
69%
31 of 57
Total strikes
53 of 75
0 of 0
Takedowns
1 of 2
-
Takedown accuracy
50%
0
Submission attempts
1
0
Reversals
0
0:00
Control time
1:10
Significant strikes by target
26 of 50
Head
36 of 51
5 of 7
Body
2 of 3
0 of 0
Leg
0 of 1
24 of 45
Distance
10 of 20
6 of 11
Clinch
6 of 8
1 of 1
Ground
22 of 27

By round

ROUND 1
0
KD
1
31 of 57
Sig. str.
38 of 55
31 of 57
Total str.
53 of 75
0 of 0
Takedowns
1 of 2
0
Sub. att
1
0:00
Ctrl
1:10

Betting Odds

Terrance McKinney
-108
52% implied win probability
Open: +150Best: +100
Chris Duncan
-109
52% implied win probability
Open: -197Best: -103

Average moneyline across 22 sportsbooks.

SportsbookTerrance McKinneyChris Duncan
4casters-105-106
4Cx-107-108
Bet105-107-105
BetAnything-115-115
BetMGM+100-120
BetOnline-115-105
BetRivers-111-111
BetUS-110-110
Betway-110-110
Bookmaker-104-116
Bovada-110-107
Caesars-105-115
Circa-105-115
Cloudbet-107-105
DraftKings-112-108
FanDuel-108-108
HardRockBet-110-110
MyBookie-110-111
Pinnacle-107-105
Polymarket+100-104
Stake-110-103
SXBet-108-104

Odds are for information only. · Odds data: fightodds.io

Frequently asked questions

Who won Terrance McKinney vs Chris Duncan?

Chris Duncan defeated Terrance McKinney by Submission in round 1 (2:30) in the Lightweight bout of UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs Yan 2, held Saturday, December 6, 2025 at T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas.

Referee
Marc Goddard
Time format
3 Rnd (5-5-5)
Pre-fight comparison

Win probability

Terrance McKinney 36%64% Chris Duncan

What the model gave each fighter going into the fight, from their pre-fight UFCalendar Power Index ratings. See the full Power Index

Fight DNA

Head to head

UFCalendar's style model · Lightweight roster (302 fighters)

Terrance McKinney
Grappling Specialist
3 edges
Chris Duncan
Submission Ace
7 edges
PowerSpeedPrecisionDurabilityEngineWrestlingGround

Radar scaled to this matchup · bars show the gap

Style shape

70Power88
47Speed84
48Precision72
70Durability81
85Engine90
97Wrestling95
97Ground93

Biggest edge Chris Duncan, Kick speed +47

Attribute by attribute

Terrance McKinney is on the left of every row, Chris Duncan on the right.
93Punch power94
47Kick power82
48Punch speed74
46Kick speed93
48Accuracy72
97Takedowns95
96Ground striking90
97Submissions96
68Chin90
72Body strength72
85Cardio90

Attributes are rated 0-100 by UFCalendar's style model.

Tale of the Tape

18-9-0
Record
15-3-0
1733
Power Index rating
1836
0
Win Streak
0
31
Age
33
5'10"
178 cm
Height
5'10"
178 cm
73"
185 cm
Reach
71"
180 cm
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Lightweight
Weight Class
Lightweight
United States
Nationality
Scotland

Striking Profile

6.83
SLpM
4.83
55%
Str. Acc.
45%
4.07
SApM
4.57
42%
Str. Def.
50%

Grappling Profile

3.27
TD Avg.
2.92
42%
TD Acc.
40%
72%
TD Def.
55%
1.80
Sub. Avg.
0.60

Recent form (last 5 fights)

Terrance McKinney · 3-2
  • L
    UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2 · Jul 11, 2026
    TKO · R1 · 4:59 · Lightweight
  • W
    UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs Pyfer · Mar 28, 2026
    TKO · R1 · 0:24 · Lightweight
  • L
    UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs Yan 2 · Dec 6, 2025
    Submission · R1 · 2:30 · Lightweight
  • W
    UFC 317: Topuria vs Oliveira · Jun 28, 2025
    Submission · R1 · 0:55 · Lightweight
  • W
    UFC Saudi Arabia: Adesanya vs Imavov · Feb 1, 2025
    TKO · R1 · 2:01 · Lightweight
Chris Duncan · 4-1
  • L
    UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs Duncan · Apr 4, 2026
    Submission · R2 · 3:14 · Lightweight
  • W
    UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs Yan 2 · Dec 6, 2025
    Submission · R1 · 2:30 · Lightweight
  • W
    UFC Fight Night: Taira vs Park · Aug 2, 2025
    Unanimous Decision · R3 · 5:00 · Lightweight
  • W
    UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs Brady · Mar 22, 2025
    Submission · R2 · 3:42 · Lightweight
  • W
    UFC Paris: Moicano vs Saint Denis · Sep 28, 2024
    Submission · R1 · 3:34 · Lightweight

Career Averages

Based on 14 fights · 8 fights
19.6
Avg sig. strikes
40.1
0.50
Avg takedowns
1.63
1:07
Avg control time
1:54
54
Career high strikes
92
2
Career high TDs
5

Strike Distribution

Terrance McKinney
Strike target
Chris Duncan
87%
Head
60%
13%
Body
23%
0%
Leg
17%
Terrance McKinney
Strike position
Chris Duncan
47%
Distance
82%
12%
Clinch
7%
42%
Ground
11%