Ultimate Fighting Calendar
Lightweight5 rounds scheduled
RESULT

Renato Moicano def. Chris Duncan (Submission)

Submission · Round 2 · 3:14
Chris Duncan
The Problem
15-3-0
Saturday, April 4, 2026
Meta Apex, Las Vegas, United States

Renato Moicano defeated Chris Duncan by Submission in round 2 (3:14) in the Lightweight main event of UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs Duncan, held Saturday, April 4, 2026 at Meta Apex, Las Vegas.

Fight stats

Renato Moicano
Chris Duncan
0
Knockdowns
0
21 of 36
Significant strikes
27 of 62
58%
Sig. strike accuracy
44%
62 of 84
Total strikes
30 of 66
1 of 4
Takedowns
0 of 2
25%
Takedown accuracy
0%
1
Submission attempts
0
0
Reversals
0
3:16
Control time
0:01
Significant strikes by target
16 of 31
Head
8 of 39
4 of 4
Body
5 of 7
1 of 1
Leg
14 of 16
20 of 34
Distance
25 of 60
1 of 1
Clinch
2 of 2
0 of 1
Ground
0 of 0

By round

ROUND 1
0
KD
0
14 of 20
Sig. str.
17 of 38
16 of 22
Total str.
19 of 41
0 of 2
Takedowns
0 of 1
0
Sub. att
0
1:13
Ctrl
0:01
ROUND 2
0
KD
0
7 of 16
Sig. str.
10 of 24
46 of 62
Total str.
11 of 25
1 of 2
Takedowns
0 of 1
1
Sub. att
0
2:03
Ctrl
0:00

Betting Odds

Renato Moicano
+118
46% implied win probability
Open: +146Best: +127
Chris Duncan
-139
58% implied win probability
Open: -183Best: -129

Average moneyline across 23 sportsbooks.

SportsbookRenato MoicanoChris Duncan
4casters+125-131
4Cx+124-136
Bet105+122-136
BetAnything+115-145
BetMGM+110-135
BetOnline+125-145
BetRivers+118-147
BetUS+118-140
Betway+120-150
Bookmaker+110-130
Bovada+120-140
Caesars+110-130
Circa+110-130
Cloudbet+114-129
DraftKings+110-130
FanDuel+116-136
HardRockBet+120-145
MyBookie+115-141
Pinnacle+115-130
Polymarket+127-133
ProphetX+121-136
Stake+123-208
SXBet+116-135

Odds are for information only. · Odds data: fightodds.io

Frequently asked questions

Who won Renato Moicano vs Chris Duncan?

Renato Moicano defeated Chris Duncan by Submission in round 2 (3:14) in the Lightweight main event of UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs Duncan, held Saturday, April 4, 2026 at Meta Apex, Las Vegas.

Referee
Herb Dean
Time format
5 Rnd (5-5-5-5-5)
Pre-fight comparison

Win probability

Renato Moicano 36%64% Chris Duncan

What the model gave each fighter going into the fight, from their pre-fight UFCalendar Power Index ratings. See the full Power Index

Fight DNA

Head to head

UFCalendar's style model · Lightweight roster (24 fighters)

Renato Moicano
Complete Fighter
6 edges
Chris Duncan
Submission Ace
4 edges
PowerSpeedPrecisionDurabilityEngineWrestlingGround

Radar scaled to this matchup · bars show the gap

Style shape

91Power88
92Speed84
94Precision72
90Durability81
92Engine90
89Wrestling95
95Ground93

Biggest edge Renato Moicano, Accuracy +22

Attribute by attribute

Renato Moicano is on the left of every row, Chris Duncan on the right.
92Punch power94
89Kick power82
92Punch speed74
92Kick speed93
94Accuracy72
89Takedowns95
96Ground striking90
94Submissions96
90Chin90
90Body strength72
92Cardio90

Attributes are rated 0-100 by UFCalendar's style model.

Tale of the Tape

21-7-1
Record
15-3-0
1763
Power Index rating
1861
1
Win Streak
0
37
Age
33
5'11"
180 cm
Height
5'10"
178 cm
72"
183 cm
Reach
71"
180 cm
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Lightweight
Weight Class
Lightweight
Brazil
Nationality
Scotland

Striking Profile

4.10
SLpM
4.83
49%
Str. Acc.
45%
3.55
SApM
4.57
59%
Str. Def.
50%

Grappling Profile

1.68
TD Avg.
2.92
40%
TD Acc.
40%
64%
TD Def.
55%
0.60
Sub. Avg.
0.60

Recent form (last 5 fights)

Renato Moicano · 2-3
  • W
    UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs Duncan · Apr 4, 2026
    Submission · R2 · 3:14 · Lightweight
  • L
    ACBJJ 19 · Nov 14, 2025
    Decision
  • L
    UFC 317: Topuria vs Oliveira · Jun 28, 2025
    Unanimous Decision · R3 · 5:00 · Lightweight
  • L
    UFC 311: Makhachev vs Moicano · Jan 18, 2025
    Submission · R1 · 4:05 · Lightweight
  • W
    UFC Paris: Moicano vs Saint Denis · Sep 28, 2024
    TKO · R2 · 5:00 · Lightweight
Chris Duncan · 4-1
  • L
    UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs Duncan · Apr 4, 2026
    Submission · R2 · 3:14 · Lightweight
  • W
    UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs Yan 2 · Dec 6, 2025
    Submission · R1 · 2:30 · Lightweight
  • W
    UFC Fight Night: Taira vs Park · Aug 2, 2025
    Unanimous Decision · R3 · 5:00 · Lightweight
  • W
    UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs Brady · Mar 22, 2025
    Submission · R2 · 3:42 · Lightweight
  • W
    UFC Paris: Moicano vs Saint Denis · Sep 28, 2024
    Submission · R1 · 3:34 · Lightweight

Career Averages

Based on 20 fights · 8 fights
38.5
Avg sig. strikes
40.1
1.05
Avg takedowns
1.63
2:04
Avg control time
1:54
116
Career high strikes
92
5
Career high TDs
5

Strike Distribution

Renato Moicano
Strike target
Chris Duncan
73%
Head
60%
10%
Body
23%
17%
Leg
17%
Renato Moicano
Strike position
Chris Duncan
82%
Distance
82%
3%
Clinch
7%
14%
Ground
11%