UFC Fight Night: Medić vs Rodriguez · Results

Navajo Stirling over Jan Blachowicz

Stirling is 5-0 in the UFC and 11-0 as a pro, coming off back-to-back second-round knockouts of Cutelaba and Lopes, and his Elo (1658) has already passed Blachowicz's (1641). Jan is 43, hasn't won a fight since May 2022, and returns from a 497-day layoff with no win in his last four. Model 77% vs market 74%: a rare favorite the model likes MORE than the books. Under the hood the model's case is the age curve (it tracks Jan as more than 10 years past the typical peak) plus Stirling's Elo edge; official rank is the one thing left on Jan's side (#4 vs #15).

Vlasto Cepo over Gilbert Urbina

Cepo is 13-2 with back-to-back TKO wins as an OKTAGON import; Urbina is 1-3 in the UFC, was knocked out in round one by Uros Medic a year ago, has a 0% takedown defense in our data, and his Elo has dropped 117 points over his last three. Model and market agree almost exactly (75% vs 75%), so we are just taking a clean, model-confirmed price.

Miloš Janičić over Noah Gugnon

The model's biggest safe-side edge: 58% vs a pick'em market (48%), on a near-even fight where the rules let us take the model's side. Janicic has won six straight including a TKO of longtime UFC vet Alex Oliveira in December, and is 2-1 in the UFC with two finishes; Gugnon is a 25-year-old debutant off the French regional circuit. The thin-data warning is real, but it comes from Gugnon's zero UFC fights, and the model's edge rests on Janicic's proven level, not the debutant's unknowns. Notably the sequence half of the model is even more bullish (62%) than the tabular half (54%).

Ludovit Klein over Tofiq Musayev

Klein carries the highest Elo on the entire card (1685), has won 15 of his last 18, and just beat Mateusz Rebecki, while 36-year-old Musayev was submitted in round one by Orolbai just three fights ago. Their common opponent Bahamondes: both beat him, but Klein did it two and a half years earlier in his career. Model 64% is a touch below the market's 69%, so we are paying a small premium here, shown honestly. The model's drivers: Klein wins the opening round on 62% of his cards vs Musayev's 0%, and the age curve has Musayev past his prime while Klein is barely off his.

Bogdan Grad over Dennis Buzukja

Grad averages five takedowns and nearly seven minutes of control per 15 minutes; Buzukja has landed zero takedowns in the UFC, is 1-4 in the promotion, and is coming off a first-round knockout loss 105 days ago. Grad is also coming off a KO loss, but to the hyped Luke Riley, and the model still prices him at 69% vs the market's 64%: a positive-EV favorite (EV 1.05). The takedown differential is the model's number one driver in this fight, backed by the striking-absorption gap (Buzukja eats 4.8 a minute, Grad 2.2).

Mateusz Rębecki over Kyle Prepolec

The biggest favorite on the card, and the model agrees with the price (85% vs 84%). Rebecki has lost three straight, but to Dawson, Klein and Duncan, the highest-rated opposition run on this card (average opponent Elo 1626); Prepolec is 0-4 in the UFC at age 36, coming off a knockout loss, and absorbs 5.7 significant strikes a minute with a 34% accuracy of his own. One more model driver worth naming: Rebecki takes 75% of third rounds on the cards, Prepolec 0%, so even the long fight favors the favorite.

Oban Elliott over Michael Oliveira

The books make Elliott a +294 underdog against 9-0 debutant Michael Oliveira; the model says this is close to a coin flip (43% vs 24.5% market, a 19pp gap). The gap and thin-data warnings exist because Oliveira has zero UFC fights: all nine wins came on the Brazilian regional circuit against unrated opposition, while Elliott has gone 3-2 against UFC-level competition and has never been knocked out. The honest caveat is that Elliott has lost two straight (a submission and a decision), which is exactly why he is on the upset ticket and not the safe one. Full disclosure on the other side of the ledger: the model counts Oliveira's 89% pre-UFC finish rate and 6-inch reach edge against Elliott, which is why it says 43%, not 50%.

Alexander Poppeck over Jovan Leka

The model does not just like Poppeck as a live dog at +224: it makes him the outright favorite (52% vs the market's 30%, a 22pp gap). He rides a five-fight win streak topped by an April decision over former KSW champion Tomasz Narkun, with an Elo of 1622 trending up 31 points; Leka is a 24-year-old UFC debutant off the Serbian regional circuit and Contender Series. The warnings come from Leka's zero UFC fights, so the model leans on the career-record and Elo gulf between them, which is exactly the situation where a 22pp disagreement with the books is at least explainable. One honest wrinkle: the model's two halves disagree here, the tabular half says 59% Poppeck while the career-sequence half says 37%, blending to 52%; the age gap (24 vs 34) is the single biggest driver on Leka's side.