Ultimate Fighting Calendar
UFCUFC Fight Night: Medić vs Rodriguez
Light Heavyweight3 rounds scheduled
Jan Blachowicz
PolandJan Blachowicz
29-11-2
STARTS IN··d ··h ··m

Jan Blachowicz vs Navajo Stirling

Navajo Stirling
New ZealandNavajo Stirling
10-0-0
Saturday, August 1, 2026
Belgrade Arena, BG, Serbia

UFCal model win probability (v1.2)

Jan Blachowicz 23%78% Navajo Stirling

What drove this number

  • Age & prime
    43.4Age28.7
    10.4y past primein prime
  • Opposition level (Elo)
    48%Elo win expectancy52%
    1641.0UFCal Elo rating1658.0
  • UFC record
    38.0UFC experience5.0
    0.0Win streak5.0
    28.0UFC wins5.0
  • Pre-UFC pedigree
    0%Pre-UFC win rate100%
    0.0Pre-UFC wins6.0
    1.0Pre-UFC losses0.0
  • Striking
    52%Striking defense59%
    3.6Strikes landed/min6.1
    3.0Strikes absorbed/min2.5

Model opinion, not betting advice. 18+.

Win probability

Jan Blachowicz 48%52% Navajo Stirling

Based on both fighters' current UFCal Elo ratings. See all Elo ratings

Tale of the Tape

29-11-2
Record
10-0-0
1641
Elo rating
1658
0
Win Streak
5
43
Age
28
6'2"
188 cm
Height
6'4"
193 cm
78"
198 cm
Reach
79"
201 cm
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Light Heavyweight
Weight Class
Light Heavyweight
Poland
Nationality
New Zealand

Striking Profile

3.55
SLpM
6.24
50%
Str. Acc.
54%
3.14
SApM
2.62
52%
Str. Def.
58%

Grappling Profile

0.98
TD Avg.
0.86
48%
TD Acc.
26%
69%
TD Def.
71%
0.40
Sub. Avg.
0.00

Recent form (last 5 fights)

Jan Blachowicz · 1-2-2
  • D
    Bogdan Guskov
    UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs Yan 2Sat, Dec 6, 2025
    Majority Decision · R3 · 5:00 · Light Heavyweight
  • L
    Carlos Ulberg
    UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs BradySat, Mar 22, 2025
    Unanimous Decision · R3 · 5:00 · Light Heavyweight
  • L
    Alex Pereira
    UFC 291: Poirier vs Gaethje 2Sat, Jul 29, 2023
    Split Decision · R3 · 5:00 · Light Heavyweight
  • D
    Magomed Ankalaev
    UFC 282: Błachowicz vs AnkalaevSat, Dec 10, 2022
    Split Decision · R5 · 5:00 · Light Heavyweight
  • W
    Aleksandar Rakic
    UFC Fight Night: Błachowicz vs RakićSat, May 14, 2022
    TKO · R3 · 1:11 · Light Heavyweight
Navajo Stirling · 5-0
  • W
    Ion Cuțelaba
    UFC Fight Night: Kape vs HoriguchiSat, Jun 20, 2026
    TKO · R2 · 3:23 · Light Heavyweight
  • W
    Bruno Lopes
    UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs PyferSat, Mar 28, 2026
    TKO · R2 · 4:05 · Light Heavyweight
  • W
    Rodolfo Bellato
    UFC Perth: Ulberg vs ReyesSat, Sep 27, 2025
    Unanimous Decision · R3 · 5:00 · Light Heavyweight
  • W
    Ivan Erslan
    UFC 315: Muhammad vs Della MaddalenaSat, May 10, 2025
    Unanimous Decision · R3 · 5:00 · Light Heavyweight
  • W
    Tuco Tokkos
    UFC Fight Night: Covington vs BuckleySun, Dec 15, 2024
    Unanimous Decision · R3 · 5:00 · Light Heavyweight

Career Averages

Based on 22 fights · 5 fights
47.1
Avg sig. strikes
76.8
0.86
Avg takedowns
0.80
1:47
Avg control time
2:14
107
Career high strikes
110
4
Career high TDs
3

Strike Distribution

Jan Blachowicz
Strike target
Navajo Stirling
62%
Head
52%
21%
Body
34%
18%
Leg
14%
Jan Blachowicz
Strike position
Navajo Stirling
78%
Distance
78%
10%
Clinch
6%
11%
Ground
16%

Betting Odds

Jan Blachowicz
+252
28% implied win probability
Open: +212Best: +275
Navajo Stirling
-321
76% implied win probability
Open: -324Best: -300

Average moneyline across 21 sportsbooks.

Line Movement

Jan BlachowiczNavajo Stirling
30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Jul 19Jul 22Jul 25Jul 27Jul 19, 10:50 PM UTC — Jan Blachowicz -1900 (95%)Jul 20, 12:50 AM UTC — Jan Blachowicz -1329 (93%)Jul 20, 2:50 AM UTC — Jan Blachowicz -900 (90%)Jul 20, 4:21 AM UTC — Jan Blachowicz -900 (90%)Jul 20, 4:50 AM UTC — Jan Blachowicz -900 (90%)Jul 20, 6:50 AM UTC — Jan Blachowicz -900 (90%)Jul 20, 8:50 AM UTC — Jan Blachowicz -900 (90%)Jul 20, 10:50 AM UTC — Jan Blachowicz -614 (86%)Jul 20, 12:51 PM UTC — Jan Blachowicz -567 (85%)Jul 20, 2:51 PM UTC — Jan Blachowicz -567 (85%)Jul 20, 4:50 PM UTC — Jan Blachowicz -525 (84%)Jul 20, 6:50 PM UTC — Jan Blachowicz -567 (85%)Jul 20, 10:50 PM UTC — Jan Blachowicz -567 (85%)Jul 21, 12:50 AM UTC — Jan Blachowicz -525 (84%)Jul 21, 6:50 AM UTC — Jan Blachowicz -488 (83%)Jul 21, 8:50 AM UTC — Jan Blachowicz -525 (84%)Jul 21, 10:50 AM UTC — Jan Blachowicz -488 (83%)Jul 21, 12:50 PM UTC — Jan Blachowicz -317 (76%)Jul 21, 2:50 PM UTC — Jan Blachowicz -300 (75%)Jul 21, 4:50 PM UTC — Jan Blachowicz -270 (73%)Jul 21, 6:50 PM UTC — Jan Blachowicz -245 (71%)Jul 21, 8:50 PM UTC — Jan Blachowicz -203 (67%)Jul 21, 10:50 PM UTC — Jan Blachowicz -178 (64%)Jul 22, 2:50 AM UTC — Jan Blachowicz -156 (61%)Jul 22, 10:51 AM UTC — Jan Blachowicz -163 (62%)Jul 22, 12:50 PM UTC — Jan Blachowicz -156 (61%)Jul 22, 4:50 PM UTC — Jan Blachowicz -163 (62%)Jul 22, 6:50 PM UTC — Jan Blachowicz -156 (61%)Jul 22, 8:50 PM UTC — Jan Blachowicz -163 (62%)Jul 23, 12:50 AM UTC — Jan Blachowicz -156 (61%)Jul 23, 2:50 AM UTC — Jan Blachowicz -156 (61%)Jul 23, 4:20 AM UTC — Jan Blachowicz -150 (60%)Jul 23, 4:50 AM UTC — Jan Blachowicz -138 (58%)Jul 23, 6:50 AM UTC — Jan Blachowicz +113 (47%)Jul 23, 8:50 AM UTC — Jan Blachowicz +138 (42%)Jul 23, 10:50 AM UTC — Jan Blachowicz +122 (45%)Jul 23, 12:50 PM UTC — Jan Blachowicz +122 (45%)Jul 23, 2:50 PM UTC — Jan Blachowicz +122 (45%)Jul 24, 12:50 AM UTC — Jan Blachowicz +156 (39%)Jul 24, 2:50 AM UTC — Jan Blachowicz +191 (34%)Jul 24, 6:50 AM UTC — Jan Blachowicz +209 (32%)Jul 24, 12:50 PM UTC — Jan Blachowicz +206 (33%)Jul 24, 2:50 PM UTC — Jan Blachowicz +209 (32%)Jul 24, 4:50 PM UTC — Jan Blachowicz +221 (31%)Jul 24, 6:50 PM UTC — Jan Blachowicz +224 (31%)Jul 24, 8:50 PM UTC — Jan Blachowicz +221 (31%)Jul 24, 10:50 PM UTC — Jan Blachowicz +224 (31%)Jul 25, 12:50 AM UTC — Jan Blachowicz +233 (30%)Jul 25, 10:50 AM UTC — Jan Blachowicz +236 (30%)Jul 25, 12:50 PM UTC — Jan Blachowicz +245 (29%)Jul 25, 2:50 PM UTC — Jan Blachowicz +245 (29%)Jul 25, 6:50 PM UTC — Jan Blachowicz +244 (29%)Jul 25, 8:50 PM UTC — Jan Blachowicz +243 (29%)Jul 26, 12:50 AM UTC — Jan Blachowicz +243 (29%)Jul 26, 4:50 AM UTC — Jan Blachowicz +224 (31%)Jul 26, 6:50 AM UTC — Jan Blachowicz +253 (28%)Jul 26, 8:50 AM UTC — Jan Blachowicz +252 (28%)Jul 26, 12:50 PM UTC — Jan Blachowicz +249 (29%)Jul 26, 2:50 PM UTC — Jan Blachowicz +256 (28%)Jul 26, 4:50 PM UTC — Jan Blachowicz +249 (29%)Jul 26, 6:50 PM UTC — Jan Blachowicz +249 (29%)Jul 26, 8:50 PM UTC — Jan Blachowicz +250 (29%)Jul 26, 10:50 PM UTC — Jan Blachowicz +252 (28%)Jul 27, 12:50 AM UTC — Jan Blachowicz +251 (28%)Jul 27, 2:50 AM UTC — Jan Blachowicz +252 (28%)Jul 27, 4:20 AM UTC — Jan Blachowicz +253 (28%)Jul 27, 6:50 AM UTC — Jan Blachowicz +252 (28%)Jul 27, 8:50 AM UTC — Jan Blachowicz +254 (28%)Jul 27, 12:50 PM UTC — Jan Blachowicz +252 (28%)Jul 19, 10:50 PM UTC — Navajo Stirling -1900 (95%)Jul 20, 12:50 AM UTC — Navajo Stirling -1567 (94%)Jul 20, 2:50 AM UTC — Navajo Stirling -1150 (92%)Jul 20, 4:21 AM UTC — Navajo Stirling -1329 (93%)Jul 20, 4:50 AM UTC — Navajo Stirling -1150 (92%)Jul 20, 6:50 AM UTC — Navajo Stirling -900 (90%)Jul 20, 8:50 AM UTC — Navajo Stirling -1150 (92%)Jul 20, 10:50 AM UTC — Navajo Stirling -614 (86%)Jul 20, 12:51 PM UTC — Navajo Stirling +100 (50%)Jul 20, 2:51 PM UTC — Navajo Stirling -104 (51%)Jul 20, 4:50 PM UTC — Navajo Stirling +104 (49%)Jul 20, 6:50 PM UTC — Navajo Stirling +100 (50%)Jul 20, 10:50 PM UTC — Navajo Stirling +104 (49%)Jul 21, 12:50 AM UTC — Navajo Stirling +100 (50%)Jul 21, 6:50 AM UTC — Navajo Stirling +104 (49%)Jul 21, 8:50 AM UTC — Navajo Stirling +100 (50%)Jul 21, 10:50 AM UTC — Navajo Stirling +100 (50%)Jul 21, 12:50 PM UTC — Navajo Stirling +104 (49%)Jul 21, 2:50 PM UTC — Navajo Stirling +100 (50%)Jul 21, 4:50 PM UTC — Navajo Stirling -117 (54%)Jul 21, 6:50 PM UTC — Navajo Stirling -117 (54%)Jul 21, 8:50 PM UTC — Navajo Stirling -117 (54%)Jul 21, 10:50 PM UTC — Navajo Stirling -117 (54%)Jul 22, 2:50 AM UTC — Navajo Stirling -113 (53%)Jul 22, 10:51 AM UTC — Navajo Stirling -113 (53%)Jul 22, 12:50 PM UTC — Navajo Stirling -117 (54%)Jul 22, 4:50 PM UTC — Navajo Stirling -117 (54%)Jul 22, 6:50 PM UTC — Navajo Stirling -117 (54%)Jul 22, 8:50 PM UTC — Navajo Stirling -117 (54%)Jul 23, 12:50 AM UTC — Navajo Stirling -117 (54%)Jul 23, 2:50 AM UTC — Navajo Stirling -257 (72%)Jul 23, 4:20 AM UTC — Navajo Stirling -270 (73%)Jul 23, 4:50 AM UTC — Navajo Stirling -270 (73%)Jul 23, 6:50 AM UTC — Navajo Stirling -270 (73%)Jul 23, 8:50 AM UTC — Navajo Stirling -317 (76%)Jul 23, 10:50 AM UTC — Navajo Stirling -270 (73%)Jul 23, 12:50 PM UTC — Navajo Stirling -245 (71%)Jul 23, 2:50 PM UTC — Navajo Stirling -186 (65%)Jul 24, 12:50 AM UTC — Navajo Stirling -220 (69%)Jul 24, 2:50 AM UTC — Navajo Stirling -230 (70%)Jul 24, 6:50 AM UTC — Navajo Stirling -230 (70%)Jul 24, 12:50 PM UTC — Navajo Stirling -243 (71%)Jul 24, 2:50 PM UTC — Navajo Stirling -247 (71%)Jul 24, 4:50 PM UTC — Navajo Stirling -294 (75%)Jul 24, 6:50 PM UTC — Navajo Stirling -270 (73%)Jul 24, 8:50 PM UTC — Navajo Stirling -266 (73%)Jul 24, 10:50 PM UTC — Navajo Stirling -266 (73%)Jul 25, 12:50 AM UTC — Navajo Stirling -278 (74%)Jul 25, 10:50 AM UTC — Navajo Stirling -288 (74%)Jul 25, 12:50 PM UTC — Navajo Stirling -297 (75%)Jul 25, 2:50 PM UTC — Navajo Stirling -299 (75%)Jul 25, 6:50 PM UTC — Navajo Stirling -302 (75%)Jul 25, 8:50 PM UTC — Navajo Stirling -302 (75%)Jul 26, 12:50 AM UTC — Navajo Stirling -303 (75%)Jul 26, 4:50 AM UTC — Navajo Stirling -311 (76%)Jul 26, 6:50 AM UTC — Navajo Stirling -314 (76%)Jul 26, 8:50 AM UTC — Navajo Stirling -316 (76%)Jul 26, 12:50 PM UTC — Navajo Stirling -309 (76%)Jul 26, 2:50 PM UTC — Navajo Stirling -321 (76%)Jul 26, 4:50 PM UTC — Navajo Stirling -312 (76%)Jul 26, 6:50 PM UTC — Navajo Stirling -315 (76%)Jul 26, 8:50 PM UTC — Navajo Stirling -314 (76%)Jul 26, 10:50 PM UTC — Navajo Stirling -317 (76%)Jul 27, 12:50 AM UTC — Navajo Stirling -317 (76%)Jul 27, 2:50 AM UTC — Navajo Stirling -317 (76%)Jul 27, 4:20 AM UTC — Navajo Stirling -317 (76%)Jul 27, 6:50 AM UTC — Navajo Stirling -317 (76%)Jul 27, 8:50 AM UTC — Navajo Stirling -319 (76%)Jul 27, 12:50 PM UTC — Navajo Stirling -321 (76%)+252-321
SportsbookJan BlachowiczNavajo Stirling
4casters+235-372
Bet105+260-318
BetAnything+240-320
BetMGM+260-325
BetOnline+256-315
BetRivers+230-303
BetUS+258-315
Betway+250-333
Bovada+260-320
Circa+275-330
Cloudbet+250-357
DraftKings+250-310
FanDuel+255-350
HardRockBet+230-300
Kalshi+270-300
MyBookie+244-330
Pinnacle+260-318
Polymarket+270-300
ProphetX+240-315
Stake+250-323
SXBet+252
YouWager+256-315

Odds are for information only. · Odds data: fightodds.io