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Investigations· Page 3

  1. Kelvin Gastelum

    Investigations

    What 14 years of line movement says about the UFC betting market

    We analyzed line movement across 6,210 UFC fights since 2012. The side the money moves toward wins more often than the odds imply, and the gap is growing.

    Aug 11, 2026 · 6 min read

  2. Investigations

    Dern vs Robertson: the numbers under UFC 330's other title fight

    Mackenzie Dern defends the strawweight title against Gillian Robertson at UFC 330. The streaks, submission stats, and odds behind Saturday's co-main event.

    Aug 11, 2026 · 5 min read

  3. Islam Makhachev holding a UFC title belt

    Investigations

    Ten fighters won a second UFC belt. Seven defended it

    Islam Makhachev defends the welterweight title at UFC 330. Across 482 UFC title fights, two-division champions have a strange record with the second belt.

    Aug 10, 2026 · 6 min read

  4. Investigations

    When do UFC fighters get washed? 16,429 fights name two culprits

    We tracked 16,429 UFC appearances to find when fighters get washed. Age and knockdowns absorbed predict the fall; cage time and strikes eaten do not.

    Aug 7, 2026 · 8 min read

  5. Investigations

    Octagon experience is an anti-predictor: 1,379 fights say so

    Across three years of UFC results, the more experienced fighter wins 43.9 percent of the time. Saturday's Apex card is built entirely on that gap.

    Aug 6, 2026 · 6 min read

  6. Investigations

    What 34,509 judged rounds show: the 10-8 is vanishing again

    A 2017 rules revision made UFC judges use the 10-8 round. By 2025 they used it less than before the reform, and the four busiest judges all drove it.

    Aug 5, 2026 · 7 min read

  7. Investigations

    Amanda Lemos is No. 8, and a 2-to-1 underdog to No. 12

    Since 2013 the betting market has favored the lower-ranked fighter in 603 ranked UFC matchups and won 63 percent of them. Lemos vs Thainara is next.

    Aug 5, 2026 · 8 min read

  8. Investigations

    Salkilld's 24 minutes: why the market likes him over Gamrot

    Quillan Salkilld has 24:20 of Octagon time and four bonuses in five fights. The market favors him over No. 8 Mateusz Gamrot. Our Elo rating does not.

    Aug 4, 2026 · 5 min read

  9. Investigations

    Half the roster under $25,000: what a decade of disclosed UFC pay actually showed

    We re-digitized 92 archived commission payroll reports, over 1,000 paychecks from 2008-2026. The median barely moved for a decade, then the numbers went dark.

    Aug 3, 2026 · 5 min read