Kai Asakura over Aoriqileng
Aoriqileng arrives on 91 days' rest off a second-round knockout loss to Cody Haddon, sits 4-5 in the UFC, and carries a late-round dominance figure of -14.8, the worst on this card, so the model reads the fight as one Asakura mainly has to survive early. The mileage split is the clearest number in it: Aoriqileng has absorbed 456 significant strikes across his career to Asakura's 62, and Asakura holds 10 quality wins to his 4. The honest caution is that both of Asakura's UFC losses came by submission, to Alexandre Pantoja and Tim Elliott, and he defends only 50 percent of takedowns, but Aoriqileng attempts 1.2 takedowns per 15 minutes at 46.7 percent and is not the man built to punish it.
André Lima over Namsrai Batbayar
Lima is 5-1 in the UFC with kick power and kick speed in the 98th and 100th percentiles of the flyweight division and striking accuracy at the 96th, and he defends 75.9 percent of takedowns while landing 3.5 minutes of control per 15. The warning belongs to the other corner and the model's own drivers say so out loud: its two heaviest factors here are simply that Lima has 81 minutes of tracked UFC time and five quality wins while Namsrai Batbayar has zero of each. Batbayar won the 2026 Road to UFC flyweight tournament and is 10-1 with finishes in his last three, so this is a live debutant, and Lima himself dropped his most recent outing on the cards to Kevin Borjas, which is why the price is 1.372 and not shorter.
Sean Woodson over Jack Jenkins
Woodson is 8-2 in the UFC carrying a 78-inch reach at featherweight, 99th-percentile accuracy and 92nd-percentile cardio, and he defends 84.6 percent of takedowns, which matters because Jenkins wants exactly that route at 1.98 takedowns per 15 minutes on 60 percent accuracy with 4.39 minutes of control. The model does not pretend this is comfortable: its top driver is the scorecard curve, and Jenkins has taken round one on the judges' cards in 100 percent of his fights against Woodson's 60 percent, so the early frames belong to the Australian. We state the rest of the caveat plainly, that Woodson is 34, has not fought in 504 days, and Dan Ige stopped him last time out. Model and market land in the same place at 58 percent, and this is the longest price on the ticket.
Xiao Long over Francesco Nuzzi
The case is Nuzzi's inactivity rather than Xiao Long's form. Nuzzi has not had a completed fight in 505 days, his most recent bout was a no contest at Cage Warriors 204, and his rating trend across three fights is -196, the steepest decline of anyone on this card. The model's leading factor is starker still: Xiao Long has 71.5 minutes of tracked cage time and Nuzzi has none. Xiao Long is only 1-4 in the UFC, but every one of those losses went to the scorecards and he lands 5.04 significant strikes a minute, and with his takedown percentile at 10 and Nuzzi a kickboxing black belt this stays standing and gets decided on volume. It is the model's best positive edge among the favorites, 65 percent against a market price of 61.
Lawrence Lui over Hector Santiago
Lui is City Kickboxing's Road to UFC season 4 bantamweight winner and the number that carries this leg is 7.0 takedowns per 15 minutes at 46.7 percent accuracy with 4.98 minutes of control from his UFC debut. Hector Santiago is a WAKO Pro world champion kickboxer and a Muay Thai black prajied debuting at 33 with no wrestling anywhere on his ledger, which is the thin-data warning on this fight and also why the matchup reads clean: a grappler who wants the floor against a striker with no shown answer once he gets there. The model's own top two factors are the plainest ones available, three years of age and four inches of reach, both to Lui. The line has barely moved since it opened, from -300 to -283, and model and market agree at 72 and 71 percent.
Ding Meng over Cameron Nelson
This is the weakest leg on the ticket and it should be read that way. Ding Meng is 1-4 in the UFC with zero quality wins and the lowest average opponent rating on the card at 1600, coming off a split-decision loss, and the model's 57 percent for him rests almost entirely on experience, 26 career fights against Cameron Nelson's 8. Two of its other leading factors point the other way: Nelson is four years younger and owns an 88 percent career win rate to Ding Meng's 69. Nelson is a debutant, 7-1 with a five-fight FLA win streak, so the thin-data flag is doing real work here. What corroborates the side is the money rather than the model, since this opened with Nelson the slight favorite at -118 and now sits at -144 on Ding Meng.
Ce LiuWIN
4-1-0· The Oriental DragonLight Heavyweight· ★ FOTN
Levi Rodrigues Jr.
5-2-0· Baby Monster
