Kavanagh vs Temirov: how UFC 333's flyweight coin flip breaks

The betting line on Lone'er Kavanagh vs Ramazan Temirov has sat at -110 on both sides for most of fight week, across 18 sportsbooks. The usual reading of a line like that is that nobody knows what happens. I think that reading is wrong. The market knows exactly what each man's win looks like. It just can't decide which one shows up.

The fight is the three-round flyweight bout that leads into the two title fights on the UFC 333 main card on Saturday at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi. Kavanagh is No. 6 in the flyweight rankings, Temirov No. 10. Our model gives Temirov 53 percent, which is about as close to a shrug as a model gets.

Look at the method props and the shrug goes away. The likeliest single outcome on the board is Temirov by knockout at +177. The next one is Kavanagh by decision at +238. Kavanagh by knockout is +422, Temirov by decision +420, and neither man is given much of a submission chance. So the market's picture is simple: if this ends early it is probably Temirov, and if it goes 15 minutes it is probably Kavanagh. Let's see whether the film and the numbers agree.

How Kavanagh wins: length, body work and the scorecards

Photo: DiarioMMA / CC BY-SA 4.0

Start with the tape measure. Kavanagh is 5 feet 6 with a 67-inch reach. Temirov is 5 feet 4 with a 63-inch reach. Four inches of reach is a lot at 125 pounds, and Kavanagh fights like a man who knows he has it. He lands 4.10 significant strikes per minute in the UFC at 50 percent accuracy, and he spreads them out: of his 321 landed significant strikes in five UFC fights, 79 went to the body and 58 to the legs. That's 43 percent of his work below the head, which is the kind of number that wins rounds without anyone noticing it happening.

The best version of Kavanagh is the one that beat Brandon Moreno in the Mexico City main event in February. He outlanded the former champion 97 to 79 over five rounds, and 42 of those came in the second round alone. All three judges gave him the first two rounds. Then the fight changed. Moreno went 0 for 8 on takedowns but still logged 440 seconds of control without completing one, every second of it in rounds three through five. Kavanagh survived it and took the decision 48-47, 48-47 and 49-46, but the shape is worth remembering: early rounds at range were his, late rounds, once Moreno got hold of him, were not.

The other tool is the wrestling, and it is underrated. Against Felipe dos Santos in London he went 4 for 6 on takedowns and held 393 seconds of control. Temirov's takedown defense reads 100 percent in the UFC, but that is 4 attempts stopped across three fights, which says more about how rarely anyone has tried than about how good it is. If Kavanagh can bank a round with a couple of takedowns and some top time, he takes away the one thing Temirov has never had to deal with in the UFC: a fight where he is behind and on his back.

How Temirov wins: the right hand, aimed high

Temirov is the simpler fighter to describe and the harder one to plan for. In three UFC fights he has landed 105 significant strikes, and 85 of them went to the head. He has landed two leg kicks. Two, in three fights. Ninety-one of those 105 strikes came at distance. He is not interested in a body-kick exchange or a clinch battle. He walks forward and throws heavy shots at your chin until one lands.

It has worked. He knocked CJ Vergara down three times and finished him at 2:50 of the first round in October 2024, and he dropped Steve Erceg twice before stopping him at 4:21 of the first in July, in this same Etihad Arena. That is five knockdowns in roughly 22 minutes of UFC cage time, and two Performance of the Night bonuses. Before the UFC he finished both of his RIZIN opponents in the first round in 2023. His 41 percent striking accuracy looks low next to Kavanagh's 50, but that is what accuracy looks like for a man throwing power shots, not touch shots. And he is hard to hit back: opponents land 3.65 per minute on him against 3.94 on Kavanagh, and his 62 percent striking defense beats Kavanagh's 54.

For Temirov, the path is to make the first ten minutes a fight in the pocket, where Kavanagh's length matters least and his own hands matter most. Kavanagh's habit of hanging in range to keep his volume up is exactly what Temirov wants to see.

The Charles Johnson problem

Here is where it gets interesting, because both men have fought Charles Johnson, and the two fights tell opposite stories.

Kavanagh fought Johnson in Shanghai in August 2025 and was winning comfortably. He outlanded him 36 to 14 in the first round. In the second, Johnson landed 30 to his 23, knocked him down, and finished him at 4:35. Over the whole fight Kavanagh outlanded Johnson 59 to 44 and lost by knockout. Volume was not protection.

Temirov fought Johnson in March 2025 and went the other way. He won the first round 21 to 15 and the second 19 to 14, then got buried in the third, 37 to 15. Johnson outlanded him 66 to 55 over the fight. Temirov won 29-28 on all three cards anyway, because he banked the first two rounds.

Two lessons come out of that, one for each corner. Kavanagh can be hurt by a flyweight who is behind on the scorecards and swinging, and Temirov brings five UFC knockdowns in three fights. And Temirov's only 15-minute UFC fight ended with his worst round. Kavanagh has fought 25 minutes against Moreno and went into the third round against Brandon Royval, now No. 3, at UFC 329 before Royval's grappling caught up with him (Royval took him down three times, held 293 seconds of control, and submitted him at 3:40 of the third). Kavanagh's loss there came on the mat, which is exactly where Temirov is least likely to take him.

Where it breaks

So the model and the market are not split on how this goes. They are split on when. The model's case for Temirov leans on his record, a 91 percent career win rate against Kavanagh's 83 and a UFC run he has not lost yet. Its case for Kavanagh is age (27 against 29) and the reach.

My read, for what it's worth: watch the first five minutes. If Kavanagh is landing his jab and his body kick from the end of his reach and Temirov is reaching for him, this starts to look like the Moreno fight, and a third round where Temirov fades. If Temirov is getting inside and Kavanagh is answering in the pocket to keep his numbers up, this starts to look like the Johnson fight, and Johnson did not need a third round.

The fight goes the distance at +119 and does not at -152, which is the market's way of saying it leans toward the second picture. I'm not so sure. Kavanagh has shown he can win the early rounds against a former champion in Moreno. He has also shown what happens when he forgets that his best weapon is the four inches between him and the other man.

Make your call on the UFC 333 pick'em before the main card, and follow it round by round on the event page on Saturday.