Yan vs Dvalishvili 3 Odds: What Changed Between Fights 1 and 2

Petr Yan and Merab Dvalishvili have fought ten rounds against each other, and the judges have given each of them one fight. On Saturday at UFC 333 in Abu Dhabi they settle it, with Yan defending the bantamweight title he took from Dvalishvili in December.

The market and our model disagree about who settles it. The sportsbook consensus has Yan at -175 and Dvalishvili at +145, and it has been moving toward the champion since it opened at -157 in August. Our model goes the other way and gives Dvalishvili 57.1 percent.

The way to understand that split is to put the two fights next to each other. The same two men produced two very different sets of numbers, and almost all of the difference is in one column.

Fight one: 49 attempts, 11 takedowns

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The first fight, in March 2023 at the Theater at Virgin Hotels in Las Vegas, was a non-title main event and it was not close. All three judges scored it 50-45 for Dvalishvili. He shot 49 takedowns and finished 11 of them, held Yan down for 6:53 against 1:50 the other way, and in significant strikes outlanded him 147 to 75 while throwing 338 to Yan's 143.

That last number is the one that explains the style. Dvalishvili landed only 43 percent of what he threw, and Yan landed 52 percent of his, so Yan was the more accurate striker in the fight he lost every round of. It did not matter, because Dvalishvili threw more than twice as much and kept shooting. Look at the third round: Yan stopped 13 of the 14 takedown attempts in it, and Dvalishvili still won the round on all three cards, because a man defending 14 takedowns in five minutes is not doing much else. In the fifth he got 5 of 12 and 2:09 of control.

That was the template that took Dvalishvili to the title. He beat Sean O'Malley for it at UFC 306 in September 2024 and then defended it three times in 2025: Umar Nurmagomedov in January, O'Malley again by submission in June, and Cory Sandhagen at UFC 320 on October 4, where he went 20 of 37 on takedowns and held Sandhagen down for 10:02.

Fight two: 29 attempts, 2 takedowns

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Nine weeks after Sandhagen, Dvalishvili defended again, against Yan at UFC 323 in Las Vegas on December 6. He went in as a clear favorite, closing at -216 in the consensus. He shot 29 takedowns and finished two.

Two of 29 is 7 percent, down from 22 percent in the first fight. Yan stopped all eight attempts in the first round, all five in the second, five of seven in the third, and every attempt in the fourth and fifth. And with the wrestling gone, the striking numbers turned over. Dvalishvili threw 383 significant strikes and landed 134, 35 percent. Yan threw 230 and landed 139, 60 percent. For the first time in the series Yan landed more, and he also took Dvalishvili down five times in nine tries, against one of five in the first fight.

The cards make the shape clear. All three judges gave Dvalishvili the first round, which he spent shooting eight takedowns and holding 1:33 of control without finishing one. Eric Colón and Michael Bell gave Yan every round after that, 49-46. Derek Cleary gave Dvalishvili the second as well and had it 48-47 Yan. Dvalishvili still held more control time overall, 5:12 to 2:55, and it bought him one round, maybe two.

Side by side

The striking volume was roughly the same: Dvalishvili threw 338 significant strikes in the first fight and 383 in the second. What changed is the wrestling. He shot 20 fewer times, finished 9 fewer takedowns, and once the takedowns stopped working, his volume became Yan's target practice.

Which fight is the real one

There are two ways to read that table, and the market and the model have each picked one.

The market's reading is that the second fight is the truth: Yan solved the takedown, and a solved problem stays solved. Yan has won four in a row, Song Yadong, Deiveson Figueiredo, Marcus McGhee and then Dvalishvili, and he is the younger man, 33 to Dvalishvili's 35.

The model's reading leans on the career rather than the last fight. In its inputs Dvalishvili lands 6.0 takedowns per 15 minutes to Yan's 1.7, and holds 5.4 minutes of control per 15 to Yan's 2.3. Yan, for his part, concedes 1.8 minutes of control per 15 to Dvalishvili's 0.8. One fight in December did not erase a career of those numbers, and the model does not let it.

And the calendar matters. UFC 323 was Dvalishvili's fourth five-round fight of 2025: January 18, June 7, October 4 and December 6. The Sandhagen fight, with its 37 takedown attempts, was 63 days before Yan. By Saturday Dvalishvili will have had 322 days off, the longest rest he has taken before any of the three Yan fights. If the 2-of-29 was a man on his fourth hard camp in eleven months, the market is pricing an exhausted version of him. If it was Yan, the model is pricing a version of Dvalishvili that no longer exists.

I lean toward the model's reading, with a caveat I can't model away: Yan did not just survive the takedowns in December, he stopped 27 of 29 of them, and some of those were in the first round on fresh legs. On Saturday we find out whether that was a wall or a tired man.

Make your pick at the UFC 333 pick'em, and the full card and start times are in our UFC 333 viewing guide.