UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld · Results

Quillan Salkilld over Mateusz Gamrot

Salkilld is 5-0 in the UFC with three first-round knockouts and has never been dropped, scoring 1.85 knockdowns per 15 minutes against Gamrot's 0.10. The two share Beneil Dariush: Gamrot lost to him on the cards in 2022, Salkilld knocked him out in May. Gamrot is 35.7 and past the age where our own curve says decline steepens, and he gives up nine years and five inches of reach here.

Alexia Thainara over Amanda Lemos

Thainara is 3-0 in the UFC and 14-1 overall, with 100 percent takedown defense and not a single knockdown suffered across 35 UFC minutes. Lemos is 39.2 and has lost three of her last four, with the worst late-round fade number in this pairing. The model has Thainara at 70.6 percent, essentially where the market has her, so this is a stability leg rather than a value leg.

Diyar Nurgozhay over Bruno Lopes

Nurgozhay is the more accurate and more protected striker here: 61 percent accuracy, 4.87 landed to 2.85 absorbed per minute, against Lopes at 45 percent and 2.47 landed to 4.28 absorbed. Lopes is coming off a second-round knockout loss 133 days ago and has been knocked down at a rate of 1.16 per 15 minutes. The model gives Nurgozhay 63.9 percent against the market's 59.6.

Louie Sutherland over Jose Montanha

This leg carries the thin-data warning because Montanha is a UFC debutant with no fight-level stats in our database at all, so the model is pricing him off his 6-1 regional record. What we do know is on Sutherland's side: he beat Tai Tuivasa on the cards in May and has five UFC appearances to Montanha's none. We are taking the known quantity, and the 72.8 percent should be read as less certain than it looks.

Miles Johns over Gianni Vazquez

Johns has 142 UFC minutes and the best late-round profile on this ticket, improving as fights go long, while Vazquez lost his UFC debut to Javid Basharat landing at 22 percent accuracy and getting knocked down once per 15 minutes. Johns has lost three straight, which is why this is priced at only -181, but every loss came against a live bantamweight and none by knockout. Model and market agree almost exactly here at roughly 62 percent.

Billy Ray Goff over Ty Miller

The market has Ty Miller at -407 off five minutes of UFC tape, one spectacular first-round knockout in his debut, and that is the thin-data warning on this fight. Goff has four times as many UFC minutes, the better striking defense of the two at 59 percent, and four knockout wins of his own. The 434-day layoff is real and is why he is not shorter, but the model's 32 percent against the market's 22.7 says the price is paying for a highlight reel.

Guilherme Pat over Steven Asplund

Both heavyweights have exactly two UFC fights, so this leg is warned on both corners and the model is working with thin evidence on each. What it has, it likes: Pat lands at 62 percent accuracy and absorbs 2.03 significant strikes per minute, while Asplund throws far more volume at 9.70 per minute but absorbs 6.63 and defends at 50 percent. Both men have stopped every takedown attempted on them, so this stays standing, and the model reads a 38.2 percent chance where the market offers 27.3.