Ultimate Fighting Calendar
Light Heavyweight3 rounds scheduled
Rafael Tobias
Bipolar
14-3-0
RESULT

Diyar Nurgozhay def. Rafael Tobias (Unanimous Decision)

Unanimous Decision · Round 3 · 5:00
Saturday, March 7, 2026
T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, United States

Diyar Nurgozhay defeated Rafael Tobias by Unanimous Decision in round 3 (5:00) in the Light Heavyweight bout of UFC 326: Holloway vs Oliveira 2, held Saturday, March 7, 2026 at T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas. The judges scored it 30-27, 29-28, 29-28, Diyar Nurgozhay won the decision.

Fight stats

Rafael Tobias
Diyar Nurgozhay
0
Knockdowns
0
39 of 101
Significant strikes
94 of 143
39%
Sig. strike accuracy
66%
52 of 114
Total strikes
100 of 150
2 of 8
Takedowns
0 of 1
25%
Takedown accuracy
0%
1
Submission attempts
0
0
Reversals
1
2:31
Control time
1:28
Significant strikes by target
29 of 86
Head
33 of 71
7 of 10
Body
37 of 47
3 of 5
Leg
24 of 25
26 of 84
Distance
81 of 122
4 of 6
Clinch
5 of 6
9 of 11
Ground
8 of 15

By round

ROUND 1
0
KD
0
10 of 38
Sig. str.
36 of 57
10 of 38
Total str.
36 of 58
0 of 0
Takedowns
0 of 0
0
Sub. att
0
0:00
Ctrl
0:18
ROUND 2
0
KD
0
16 of 34
Sig. str.
27 of 46
28 of 46
Total str.
32 of 51
1 of 6
Takedowns
0 of 0
0
Sub. att
0
1:44
Ctrl
1:03
ROUND 3
0
KD
0
13 of 29
Sig. str.
31 of 40
14 of 30
Total str.
32 of 41
1 of 2
Takedowns
0 of 1
1
Sub. att
0
0:47
Ctrl
0:07

Judges' Scorecards

#TobiasNurgozhay
1910
2910
3910
Total2730
#TobiasNurgozhay
1910
2109
3910
Total2829
#TobiasNurgozhay
1910
2910
3109
Total2829

Media Scores

0
Tobias
-
11
Nurgozhay
30-27 Nurgozhay×929-28 Nurgozhay×2
All 11 media scorecards

Fan Scorecards

6%
Tobias
3%
Draw
91%
Nurgozhay
32 fan scorecards submitted
30-27 Nurgozhay50%29-28 Nurgozhay37.5%29-28 Tobias6.2%30-28 Nurgozhay3.1%
Fans' round-by-round verdict
R1
100%
Nurgozhay
R2
56%
Nurgozhay
R3
84%
Nurgozhay

Scorecard data via mmadecisions.com

Betting Odds

Rafael Tobias
+102
50% implied win probability
Open: -271Best: +1000
Diyar Nurgozhay
+132
43% implied win probability
Open: +196Best: +152

Average moneyline across 21 sportsbooks.

SportsbookRafael TobiasDiyar Nurgozhay
4casters-162+152
4Cx-166+148
Bet105-164+145
BetAnything-175+145
BetMGM-165+135
BetOnline-170+145
BetRivers+1000-5000
BetUS-180+150
Betway-175+140
Bookmaker-170+148
Bovada-163+137
Caesars-175+145
Circa-170+150
Cloudbet-158+140
DraftKings-170+142
FanDuel-172+144
HardRockBet-190+150
MyBookie-179+145
Pinnacle-163+144
Polymarket-376-525
Stake-152+139

Odds are for information only. · Odds data: fightodds.io

Frequently asked questions

Who won Rafael Tobias vs Diyar Nurgozhay?

Diyar Nurgozhay defeated Rafael Tobias by Unanimous Decision in round 3 (5:00) in the Light Heavyweight bout of UFC 326: Holloway vs Oliveira 2, held Saturday, March 7, 2026 at T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas. The judges scored it 30-27, 29-28, 29-28, Diyar Nurgozhay won the decision.

What were the judges' scorecards for Rafael Tobias vs Diyar Nurgozhay?

The judges scored it 30-27, 29-28, 29-28, Diyar Nurgozhay won the decision.

Was Rafael Tobias vs Diyar Nurgozhay a robbery?

Public scoring backed the judges: 91% of 32 fan cards scored it for Diyar Nurgozhay; 100% of 11 media scores picked Diyar Nurgozhay.

Full robbery index
Referee
Herb Dean
Time format
3 Rnd (5-5-5)
Pre-fight comparison

Win probability

Rafael Tobias 64%36% Diyar Nurgozhay

What the model gave each fighter going into the fight, from their pre-fight UFCalendar Power Index ratings. See the full Power Index

Tale of the Tape

14-3-0
Record
12-2-0
1736
Power Index rating
1635
0
Win Streak
2
23
Age
29
6'2"
188 cm
Height
6'2"
188 cm
74"
188 cm
Reach
74"
188 cm
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Light Heavyweight
Weight Class
Light Heavyweight
Brazil
Nationality
Kazakhstan

Striking Profile

2.17
SLpM
5.19
32%
Str. Acc.
61%
5.95
SApM
2.81
37%
Str. Def.
59%

Grappling Profile

2.00
TD Avg.
1.19
40%
TD Acc.
75%
100%
TD Def.
72%
1.00
Sub. Avg.
0.00

Recent form (last 5 fights)

Rafael Tobias · 3-2
  • L
    UFC 330: Makhachev vs Machado Garry · Aug 15, 2026
    TKO · R3 · 1:10 · Light Heavyweight
  • L
    UFC 326: Holloway vs Oliveira 2 · Mar 7, 2026
    Unanimous Decision · R3 · 5:00 · Light Heavyweight
  • W
    Contender Series 2025 · Sep 23, 2025
    Submission · R1 · 3:46 · Light Heavyweight
  • W
    TKO Palmasnet 3 · Apr 12, 2025
    TKO · Light Heavyweight
  • W
    FFC 79: Sordi vs. Lezama · Aug 1, 2024
    TKO · R1 · 1:10 · Light Heavyweight
Diyar Nurgozhay · 3-2
  • W
    UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld · Aug 8, 2026
    TKO · R1 · 4:59 · Light Heavyweight
  • W
    UFC 326: Holloway vs Oliveira 2 · Mar 7, 2026
    Unanimous Decision · R3 · 5:00 · Light Heavyweight
  • L
    UFC Fight Night: Walker vs Zhang · Aug 23, 2025
    Submission · R1 · 2:45 · Light Heavyweight
  • L
    UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs Dolidze 2 · Mar 15, 2025
    Submission · R2 · 1:28 · Light Heavyweight
  • W
    Contender Series 2024 · Oct 1, 2024
    TKO · R2 · 3:32 · Light Heavyweight

Career Averages

Based on 2 fights · 4 fights
26.0
Avg sig. strikes
41.5
1.50
Avg takedowns
0.75
1:43
Avg control time
0:41
39
Career high strikes
94
2
Career high TDs
2

Strike Distribution

Rafael Tobias
Strike target
Diyar Nurgozhay
65%
Head
34%
23%
Body
37%
12%
Leg
30%
Rafael Tobias
Strike position
Diyar Nurgozhay
71%
Distance
83%
10%
Clinch
5%
19%
Ground
12%