Light Heavyweight3 rounds scheduled
Saturday, August 15, 2026
Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia, United States
Win probability
Rafael Tobias 38%62% Lucas Fernando
Based on both fighters' current UFCalendar Power Index ratings. See the full Power Index
Tale of the Tape
14-2-0
Record
13-3-0
1682
Power Index rating
1764
0
Win Streak
0
23
Age
29
6'2"
188 cm
Height
6'3"
191 cm
74"
188 cm
Reach
80"
203 cm
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Light Heavyweight
Weight Class
Light Heavyweight
Brazil
Nationality
Brazil
Striking Profile
2.77
SLpM
1.87
36%
Str. Acc.
51%
5.81
SApM
4.73
35%
Str. Def.
38%
Grappling Profile
2.40
TD Avg.
3.00
33%
TD Acc.
30%
100%
TD Def.
0%
1.60
Sub. Avg.
1.00
Recent form (last 5 fights)
Rafael Tobias · 0-1
Lucas Fernando
No recent UFC fights on record
Career Averages
Based on 1 fight · 0 fights
39.0
Avg sig. strikes
-
2.00
Avg takedowns
-
2:31
Avg control time
-
39
Career high strikes
-
2
Career high TDs
-
Strike Distribution
Rafael Tobias
Strike target
Lucas Fernando
74%
Head
-
18%
Body
-
8%
Leg
-
Rafael Tobias
Strike position
Lucas Fernando
67%
Distance
-
10%
Clinch
-
23%
Ground
-
Betting Odds
Rafael Tobias
+194
34% implied win probability
Open: +154Best: +223
Lucas Fernando
-238
70% implied win probability
Open: -235Best: -223
Average moneyline across 18 sportsbooks.
Line Movement
| Sportsbook | Rafael Tobias | Lucas Fernando |
|---|---|---|
| Bet105 | +200 | -239 |
| BetOnline | +192 | -230 |
| BetRivers | +190 | -244 |
| BetUS | +190 | -230 |
| Bookmaker | +194 | -245 |
| Bovada | +190 | -230 |
| Caesars | +190 | -230 |
| Circa | +200 | -235 |
| Cloudbet | +190 | -256 |
| DraftKings | +195 | -238 |
| HardRockBet | +190 | -240 |
| Kalshi | +223 | -223 |
| MyBookie | +178 | -260 |
| Pinnacle | +200 | -239 |
| Polymarket | +203 | -233 |
| ProphetX | +188 | -250 |
| Stake | +190 | -238 |
| YouWager | +192 | -230 |
Odds are for information only. · Odds data: fightodds.io