Ultimate Fighting Calendar
Bantamweight3 rounds scheduled
RESULT

Umar Nurmagomedov def. Mario Bautista (Unanimous Decision)

Unanimous Decision · Round 3 · 5:00
Saturday, October 25, 2025
Etihad Arena, Yas Island/Yas West, United Arab Emirates

Umar Nurmagomedov defeated Mario Bautista by Unanimous Decision in round 3 (5:00) in the Bantamweight bout of UFC 321: Aspinall vs Gane, held Saturday, October 25, 2025 at Etihad Arena, Yas Island/Yas West. The judges scored it 30-27, 30-27, 30-27, Umar Nurmagomedov won the decision.

Fight stats

Umar Nurmagomedov
Mario Bautista
0
Knockdowns
1
32 of 54
Significant strikes
20 of 54
59%
Sig. strike accuracy
37%
81 of 105
Total strikes
33 of 67
11 of 14
Takedowns
0 of 1
79%
Takedown accuracy
0%
0
Submission attempts
1
0
Reversals
0
10:46
Control time
0:04
Significant strikes by target
24 of 44
Head
6 of 37
6 of 8
Body
11 of 14
2 of 2
Leg
3 of 3
23 of 44
Distance
17 of 50
2 of 2
Clinch
2 of 3
7 of 8
Ground
1 of 1

By round

ROUND 1
0
KD
0
5 of 6
Sig. str.
1 of 1
32 of 34
Total str.
8 of 8
2 of 2
Takedowns
0 of 0
0
Sub. att
1
4:37
Ctrl
0:00
ROUND 2
0
KD
1
12 of 21
Sig. str.
9 of 28
29 of 39
Total str.
14 of 33
2 of 3
Takedowns
0 of 1
0
Sub. att
0
3:02
Ctrl
0:04
ROUND 3
0
KD
0
15 of 27
Sig. str.
10 of 25
20 of 32
Total str.
11 of 26
7 of 9
Takedowns
0 of 0
0
Sub. att
0
3:07
Ctrl
0:00

Judges' Scorecards

#NurmagomedovBautista
1109
2109
3109
Total3027
#NurmagomedovBautista
1109
2109
3109
Total3027
#NurmagomedovBautista
1109
2109
3109
Total3027

Media Scores

19
Nurmagomedov
-
0
Bautista
30-27 Nurmagomedov×1329-28 Nurmagomedov×6
All 19 media scorecards

Fan Scorecards

92%
Nurmagomedov
2%
Draw
6%
Bautista
194 fan scorecards submitted
30-27 Nurmagomedov46.9%29-28 Nurmagomedov42.8%29-28 Bautista4.1%30-27 Bautista1.5%
Fans' round-by-round verdict
R1
91%
Nurmagomedov
R2
51%
Nurmagomedov
R3
95%
Nurmagomedov

Scorecard data via mmadecisions.com

Betting Odds

Umar Nurmagomedov
-633
86% implied win probability
Open: -446Best: -535
Mario Bautista
+481
17% implied win probability
Open: +340Best: +525

Average moneyline across 20 sportsbooks.

SportsbookUmar NurmagomedovMario Bautista
4casters-546+494
4Cx-557+484
Bet105-647+513
BetAnything-650+385
BetMGM-700+475
BetOnline-650+475
BetRivers-560+420
BetUS-650+450
Betway-649+450
Bookmaker-675+492
Bovada-650+500
Caesars-700+500
Circa-710+525
Cloudbet-613+516
DraftKings-675+490
FanDuel-650+480
MyBookie-699+470
Pinnacle-639+508
Stake-588+520
SXBet-535+480

Odds are for information only. · Odds data: fightodds.io

Frequently asked questions

Who won Umar Nurmagomedov vs Mario Bautista?

Umar Nurmagomedov defeated Mario Bautista by Unanimous Decision in round 3 (5:00) in the Bantamweight bout of UFC 321: Aspinall vs Gane, held Saturday, October 25, 2025 at Etihad Arena, Yas Island/Yas West. The judges scored it 30-27, 30-27, 30-27, Umar Nurmagomedov won the decision.

What were the judges' scorecards for Umar Nurmagomedov vs Mario Bautista?

The judges scored it 30-27, 30-27, 30-27, Umar Nurmagomedov won the decision.

Was Umar Nurmagomedov vs Mario Bautista a robbery?

Public scoring backed the judges: 92% of 194 fan cards scored it for Umar Nurmagomedov; 100% of 19 media scores picked Umar Nurmagomedov.

Full robbery index
Referee
Jason Herzog
Time format
3 Rnd (5-5-5)
Pre-fight comparison

Win probability

Umar Nurmagomedov 54%46% Mario Bautista

What the model gave each fighter going into the fight, from their pre-fight UFCalendar Power Index ratings. See the full Power Index

Fight DNA

Head to head

UFCalendar's style model · Bantamweight roster (15 fighters)

Umar Nurmagomedov
Complete Fighter
7 edges
Mario Bautista
Complete Fighter
3 edges
PowerSpeedPrecisionDurabilityEngineWrestlingGround

Radar scaled to this matchup · bars show the gap

Style shape

93Power93
95Speed94
94Precision92
93Durability93
94Engine95
95Wrestling91
94Ground93

Biggest edge Umar Nurmagomedov, Takedowns +4

Attribute by attribute

Umar Nurmagomedov is on the left of every row, Mario Bautista on the right.
93Punch power92
92Kick power93
95Punch speed94
95Kick speed94
94Accuracy92
95Takedowns91
94Ground striking93
94Submissions93
93Chin94
92Body strength92
94Cardio95

Attributes are rated 0-100 by UFCalendar's style model.

Tale of the Tape

20-1-0
Record
18-3-0
1902
Power Index rating
1872
2
Win Streak
2
30
Age
33
5'8"
173 cm
Height
5'9"
175 cm
69"
175 cm
Reach
69"
175 cm
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Bantamweight
Weight Class
Bantamweight
Russia
Nationality
United States

Striking Profile

3.86
SLpM
5.52
56%
Str. Acc.
50%
1.86
SApM
4.17
61%
Str. Def.
54%

Grappling Profile

4.03
TD Avg.
2.49
46%
TD Acc.
38%
79%
TD Def.
57%
0.20
Sub. Avg.
1.10

Recent form (last 5 fights)

Umar Nurmagomedov · 4-1
  • W
    UFC 324: Gaethje vs Pimblett · Jan 24, 2026
    Unanimous Decision · R3 · 5:00 · Bantamweight
  • W
    UFC 321: Aspinall vs Gane · Oct 25, 2025
    Unanimous Decision · R3 · 5:00 · Bantamweight
  • L
    UFC 311: Makhachev vs Moicano · Jan 18, 2025
    Unanimous Decision · R5 · 5:00 · Bantamweight
  • W
    UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs Nurmagomedov · Aug 3, 2024
    Unanimous Decision · R5 · 5:00 · Bantamweight
  • W
    UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs Gaziev · Mar 2, 2024
    Unanimous Decision · R3 · 5:00 · Bantamweight
Mario Bautista · 4-1
  • W
    UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2 · Jul 11, 2026
    Unanimous Decision · R3 · 5:00 · Bantamweight
  • W
    UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs Oliveira · Feb 7, 2026
    Submission · R2 · 4:46 · Bantamweight
  • L
    UFC 321: Aspinall vs Gane · Oct 25, 2025
    Unanimous Decision · R3 · 5:00 · Bantamweight
  • W
    UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs O'Malley 2 · Jun 7, 2025
    Unanimous Decision · R3 · 5:00 · Bantamweight
  • W
    UFC 307: Pereira vs Rountree Jr. · Oct 5, 2024
    Split Decision · R3 · 5:00 · Bantamweight

Career Averages

Based on 11 fights · 15 fights
54.3
Avg sig. strikes
57.6
3.27
Avg takedowns
1.73
5:27
Avg control time
2:24
104
Career high strikes
173
11
Career high TDs
8

Strike Distribution

Umar Nurmagomedov
Strike target
Mario Bautista
68%
Head
61%
20%
Body
26%
11%
Leg
13%
Umar Nurmagomedov
Strike position
Mario Bautista
62%
Distance
80%
5%
Clinch
13%
32%
Ground
7%