Ultimate Fighting Calendar
WelterweightPerformance of the Night5 rounds scheduled
WIN
Nate Diaz
22-13-0
RESULT

Nate Diaz def. Tony Ferguson (Submission)

Submission · Round 4 · 2:52
Tony Ferguson
El Cucuy
26-11-0
Saturday, September 10, 2022
T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, United States

Nate Diaz defeated Tony Ferguson by Submission in round 4 (2:52) in the Welterweight main event of UFC 279: Diaz vs Ferguson, held Saturday, September 10, 2022 at T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas.

Fight stats

Nate Diaz
Tony Ferguson
0
Knockdowns
0
101 of 217
Significant strikes
80 of 172
47%
Sig. strike accuracy
47%
101 of 217
Total strikes
80 of 172
0 of 0
Takedowns
1 of 3
-
Takedown accuracy
33%
1
Submission attempts
0
0
Reversals
0
0:00
Control time
0:08
Significant strikes by target
71 of 178
Head
23 of 106
21 of 30
Body
23 of 27
9 of 9
Leg
34 of 39
99 of 214
Distance
80 of 172
2 of 3
Clinch
0 of 0
0 of 0
Ground
0 of 0

By round

ROUND 1
0
KD
0
22 of 51
Sig. str.
19 of 45
22 of 51
Total str.
19 of 45
0 of 0
Takedowns
0 of 1
0
Sub. att
0
0:00
Ctrl
0:00
ROUND 2
0
KD
0
28 of 59
Sig. str.
20 of 51
28 of 59
Total str.
20 of 51
0 of 0
Takedowns
0 of 0
0
Sub. att
0
0:00
Ctrl
0:00
ROUND 3
0
KD
0
26 of 56
Sig. str.
30 of 51
26 of 56
Total str.
30 of 51
0 of 0
Takedowns
0 of 1
0
Sub. att
0
0:00
Ctrl
0:00
ROUND 4
0
KD
0
25 of 51
Sig. str.
11 of 25
25 of 51
Total str.
11 of 25
0 of 0
Takedowns
1 of 1
1
Sub. att
0
0:00
Ctrl
0:08

Betting Odds

Nate Diaz
-104
51% implied win probability
Open: +109Best: +153
Tony Ferguson
-100
50% implied win probability
Open: -134Best: +255

Average moneyline across 13 sportsbooks.

SportsbookNate DiazTony Ferguson
BetAnything+120-150
BetOnline+120-140
BetUS+120-150
Betway-125-111
Bovada+115-140
Cloudbet-357+196
DraftKings-370+255
FanDuel-160+126
MyBookie+110-135
Pinnacle+153-174
sportsbetio+112-167
sports-interaction-120-110
unibet+115-143

Odds are for information only. · Odds data: fightodds.io

Frequently asked questions

Who won Nate Diaz vs Tony Ferguson?

Nate Diaz defeated Tony Ferguson by Submission in round 4 (2:52) in the Welterweight main event of UFC 279: Diaz vs Ferguson, held Saturday, September 10, 2022 at T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas.

Referee
Marc Goddard
Time format
5 Rnd (5-5-5-5-5)
Pre-fight comparison

Win probability

Nate Diaz 19%81% Tony Ferguson

What the model gave each fighter going into the fight, from their pre-fight UFCalendar Power Index ratings. See the full Power Index

Fight DNA

Head to head

UFCalendar's style model · Lightweight roster (302 fighters)

Nate Diaz
Submission Ace
1 edge
Tony Ferguson
Submission Ace
10 edges
PowerSpeedPrecisionDurabilityEngineWrestlingGround

Radar scaled to this matchup · bars show the gap

Style shape

65Power90
58Speed93
73Precision93
81Durability96
96Engine100
58Wrestling88
82Ground95

Biggest edge Tony Ferguson, Kick speed +36

Attribute by attribute

Nate Diaz is on the left of every row, Tony Ferguson on the right.
76Punch power91
54Kick power89
60Punch speed93
56Kick speed92
73Accuracy93
58Takedowns88
67Ground striking94
97Submissions96
96Chin98
66Body strength94
96Cardio100

Attributes are rated 0-100 by UFCalendar's style model.

Tale of the Tape

22-13-0
Record
26-11-0
1632
Power Index rating
1882
1
Win Streak
0
41
Age
42
6'0"
183 cm
Height
5'11"
180 cm
76"
193 cm
Reach
76"
193 cm
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Welterweight
Weight Class
Welterweight
United States
Nationality
United States

Striking Profile

4.57
SLpM
4.91
45%
Str. Acc.
45%
3.77
SApM
4.37
52%
Str. Def.
55%

Grappling Profile

1.05
TD Avg.
0.39
30%
TD Acc.
35%
41%
TD Def.
66%
1.30
Sub. Avg.
0.90

Recent form (last 5 fights)

Nate Diaz · 2-3
  • L
    Rousey vs. Carano · May 16, 2026
    TKO · R2 · 5:00 · Welterweight
  • W
    Diaz vs. Masvidal 2 · Jul 6, 2024
    Majority Decision
  • L
    Paul vs. Diaz · Aug 5, 2023
    Unanimous Decision
  • W
    UFC 279: Diaz vs Ferguson · Sep 10, 2022
    Submission · R4 · 2:52 · Welterweight
  • L
    UFC 263: Adesanya vs Vettori 2 · Jun 12, 2021
    Unanimous Decision · R5 · 5:00 · Welterweight
Tony Ferguson · 2-3
  • W
    Misfits Mania · Dec 20, 2025
    Unanimous Decision · Middleweight
  • W
    MF & DAZN X Series 22 · Aug 30, 2025
    TKO · R3 · 2:43 · Middleweight
  • L
    UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs Nurmagomedov · Aug 3, 2024
    Submission · R1 · 3:44 · Welterweight
  • L
    UFC 296: Edwards vs Covington · Dec 16, 2023
    Unanimous Decision · R3 · 5:00 · Lightweight
  • L
    UFC 291: Poirier vs Gaethje 2 · Jul 29, 2023
    Submission · R3 · 4:54 · Lightweight

Career Averages

Based on 27 fights · 24 fights
57.2
Avg sig. strikes
55.5
0.67
Avg takedowns
0.29
1:45
Avg control time
0:20
238
Career high strikes
199
5
Career high TDs
2

Strike Distribution

Nate Diaz
Strike target
Tony Ferguson
74%
Head
60%
17%
Body
19%
9%
Leg
20%
Nate Diaz
Strike position
Tony Ferguson
73%
Distance
91%
22%
Clinch
2%
5%
Ground
7%