Ultimate Fighting Calendar
UFCUFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs Rodrigues
Lightweight3 rounds scheduled
MarQuel Mederos
United StatesMarQuel Mederos
11-1-1
STARTS IN··d ··h ··m

MarQuel Mederos vs Mason Jones

Mason Jones
WalesMason Jones
“The Dragon”
18-2-0 (1 NC)
Saturday, August 22, 2026
Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, United States

Win probability

MarQuel Mederos 35%65% Mason Jones

Based on both fighters' current UFCalendar Power Index ratings. See the full Power Index

Fight DNA

Head to head

UFCalendar's style model · Lightweight roster (302 fighters)

MarQuel Mederos
Knockout Artist
6 edges
Mason Jones
Grappling Specialist
5 edges
PowerSpeedPrecisionDurabilityEngineWrestlingGround

Radar scaled to this matchup · bars show the gap

Style shape

95Power53
96Speed63
97Precision61
92Durability92
93Engine95
68Wrestling97
52Ground81

Biggest edge MarQuel Mederos, Kick power +44

Attribute by attribute

MarQuel Mederos is on the left of every row, Mason Jones on the right.
93Punch power53
97Kick power53
95Punch speed65
97Kick speed60
97Accuracy61
68Takedowns97
50Ground striking93
53Submissions68
92Chin94
92Body strength90
93Cardio95

Attributes are rated 0-100 by UFCalendar's style model.

Tale of the Tape

11-1-1
Record
18-2-0 (1 NC)
1776
Power Index rating
1882
0
Win Streak
3
29
Age
31
5'10"
178 cm
Height
5'10"
178 cm
69"
175 cm
Reach
74"
188 cm
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Lightweight
Weight Class
Lightweight
United States
Nationality
Wales

Striking Profile

5.46
SLpM
5.98
58%
Str. Acc.
42%
4.58
SApM
4.45
52%
Str. Def.
50%

Grappling Profile

0.23
TD Avg.
3.48
8%
TD Acc.
55%
82%
TD Def.
73%
0.00
Sub. Avg.
0.20

Recent form (last 5 fights)

MarQuel Mederos · 4-0-1
  • D
    Chris Padilla
    UFC 327: Procházka vs Ulberg · Apr 11, 2026
    Majority Decision · R3 · 5:00 · Lightweight
  • W
    Mark Choinski
    UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs O'Malley 2 · Jun 7, 2025
    Unanimous Decision · R3 · 5:00 · Lightweight
  • W
    Austin Hubbard
    UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs Erceg · Mar 29, 2025
    Split Decision · R3 · 5:00 · Lightweight
  • W
    Landon Quinones
    UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs Imavov · Feb 3, 2024
    Unanimous Decision · R3 · 5:00 · Lightweight
  • W
    Issa Isakov
    Contender Series 2023 · Oct 10, 2023
    TKO · R1 · 4:09 · Lightweight
Mason Jones · 5-0
  • W
    Axel Sola
    UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs Murphy · Mar 21, 2026
    Unanimous Decision · R3 · 5:00 · Lightweight
  • W
    Bolaji Oki
    UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs Borralho · Sep 6, 2025
    TKO · R2 · 3:18 · Lightweight
  • W
    Jeremy Stephens
    UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs Figueiredo · May 3, 2025
    Unanimous Decision · R3 · 5:00 · Lightweight
  • W
    Michael Pagani
    Cage Warriors 175 · Jul 25, 2024
    Unanimous Decision · Lightweight
  • W
    Bryce Logan
    Cage Warriors 166 · Feb 23, 2024
    TKO · R2 · 2:45 · Lightweight

Career Averages

Based on 4 fights · 6 fights
81.5
Avg sig. strikes
82.5
0.25
Avg takedowns
3.17
1:40
Avg control time
3:40
112
Career high strikes
117
1
Career high TDs
8

Strike Distribution

MarQuel Mederos
Strike target
Mason Jones
59%
Head
69%
16%
Body
22%
25%
Leg
8%
MarQuel Mederos
Strike position
Mason Jones
83%
Distance
76%
12%
Clinch
15%
4%
Ground
9%

Betting Odds

MarQuel Mederos
+222
31% implied win probability
Open: +201Best: +257
Mason Jones
-274
73% implied win probability
Open: -284Best: -265

Average moneyline across 24 sportsbooks.

Line Movement

MarQuel MederosMason Jones
30%40%50%60%70%Aug 15Aug 16Aug 18Aug 19Aug 15, 10:50 PM UTC · MarQuel Mederos +217 (32%)Aug 16, 12:50 AM UTC · MarQuel Mederos +219 (31%)Aug 16, 4:20 AM UTC · MarQuel Mederos +218 (31%)Aug 16, 4:50 AM UTC · MarQuel Mederos +218 (31%)Aug 16, 6:50 AM UTC · MarQuel Mederos +220 (31%)Aug 16, 8:50 AM UTC · MarQuel Mederos +221 (31%)Aug 16, 12:50 PM UTC · MarQuel Mederos +221 (31%)Aug 16, 2:50 PM UTC · MarQuel Mederos +218 (31%)Aug 16, 4:50 PM UTC · MarQuel Mederos +216 (32%)Aug 16, 6:50 PM UTC · MarQuel Mederos +217 (32%)Aug 16, 8:50 PM UTC · MarQuel Mederos +218 (31%)Aug 16, 10:50 PM UTC · MarQuel Mederos +218 (31%)Aug 17, 12:50 AM UTC · MarQuel Mederos +219 (31%)Aug 17, 4:20 AM UTC · MarQuel Mederos +219 (31%)Aug 17, 8:50 AM UTC · MarQuel Mederos +217 (32%)Aug 17, 10:50 AM UTC · MarQuel Mederos +217 (32%)Aug 17, 2:50 PM UTC · MarQuel Mederos +219 (31%)Aug 17, 4:50 PM UTC · MarQuel Mederos +218 (31%)Aug 17, 8:50 PM UTC · MarQuel Mederos +219 (31%)Aug 17, 10:50 PM UTC · MarQuel Mederos +220 (31%)Aug 18, 6:50 AM UTC · MarQuel Mederos +221 (31%)Aug 18, 12:50 PM UTC · MarQuel Mederos +220 (31%)Aug 18, 2:50 PM UTC · MarQuel Mederos +221 (31%)Aug 18, 4:50 PM UTC · MarQuel Mederos +221 (31%)Aug 18, 6:50 PM UTC · MarQuel Mederos +221 (31%)Aug 19, 12:50 AM UTC · MarQuel Mederos +222 (31%)Aug 15, 10:50 PM UTC · Mason Jones -268 (73%)Aug 16, 12:50 AM UTC · Mason Jones -270 (73%)Aug 16, 4:20 AM UTC · Mason Jones -271 (73%)Aug 16, 4:50 AM UTC · Mason Jones -270 (73%)Aug 16, 6:50 AM UTC · Mason Jones -270 (73%)Aug 16, 8:50 AM UTC · Mason Jones -272 (73%)Aug 16, 12:50 PM UTC · Mason Jones -271 (73%)Aug 16, 2:50 PM UTC · Mason Jones -272 (73%)Aug 16, 4:50 PM UTC · Mason Jones -269 (73%)Aug 16, 6:50 PM UTC · Mason Jones -269 (73%)Aug 16, 8:50 PM UTC · Mason Jones -269 (73%)Aug 16, 10:50 PM UTC · Mason Jones -268 (73%)Aug 17, 12:50 AM UTC · Mason Jones -268 (73%)Aug 17, 4:20 AM UTC · Mason Jones -267 (73%)Aug 17, 8:50 AM UTC · Mason Jones -267 (73%)Aug 17, 10:50 AM UTC · Mason Jones -268 (73%)Aug 17, 2:50 PM UTC · Mason Jones -268 (73%)Aug 17, 4:50 PM UTC · Mason Jones -272 (73%)Aug 17, 8:50 PM UTC · Mason Jones -273 (73%)Aug 17, 10:50 PM UTC · Mason Jones -274 (73%)Aug 18, 6:50 AM UTC · Mason Jones -276 (73%)Aug 18, 12:50 PM UTC · Mason Jones -276 (73%)Aug 18, 2:50 PM UTC · Mason Jones -273 (73%)Aug 18, 4:50 PM UTC · Mason Jones -272 (73%)Aug 18, 6:50 PM UTC · Mason Jones -273 (73%)Aug 19, 12:50 AM UTC · Mason Jones -274 (73%)+222-274
SportsbookMarQuel MederosMason Jones
4casters+214-271
4Cx+209-278
Bet105+227-274
BetAnything+210-270
BetMGM+220-275
BetOnline+219-265
BetRivers+220-286
BetUS+226-275
Betway+210-275
Bookmaker+216-275
Bovada+220-270
Caesars+215-265
Circa+230-270
Cloudbet+220-303
DraftKings+225-278
FanDuel+215-290
HardRockBet+220-275
Kalshi+257-270
MyBookie+206-275
Pinnacle+228-275
Polymarket+257-270
ProphetX+240-265
Stake+210-270
SXBet+233
YouWager+219-265

Odds are for information only. · Odds data: fightodds.io