Joshua Van over Alexandre Pantoja
Van already finished Pantoja inside one round in December to take the belt, and the nine months since have only widened the gap: he is 24.9 with a seven fight win streak, Pantoja is 36.4, has been out 286 days and is coming off that knockout. The one warning on this leg is the 15 point spread between our 71.9 percent and the market's 56.6, so we name it: the books are pricing a rematch as a fresh fight, while the model's two heaviest drivers here, age and win streak, both point harder at Van now than they did the first time. The line has drifted the same way, from minus 116 on opening to minus 142 today.
Arman Tsarukyan over Maurício Ruffy
Tsarukyan is the deepest water Ruffy has been in, 147 minutes of UFC cage time against 58, and 71 percent of Tsarukyan's fights reach a third round while Ruffy has never seen one. All five of Ruffy's UFC wins are knockouts and he has attempted zero takedowns in the promotion, which is the profile that struggles against a freestyle Master of Sport landing 3.3 takedowns and 6.4 minutes of control per fifteen with 75 percent takedown defence. Model and market agree at 72 percent, so this is the anchor of the ticket rather than the edge.
Iwo Baraniewski over Alonzo Menifield
Four UFC appearances, four first round finishes, nine wins from nine as a professional, and a judo black belt with a world juniors bronze behind them. The model's single heaviest driver is the eleven year age gap: Menifield is 38.9 with 561 significant strikes absorbed across a twenty fight Octagon run, Baraniewski is 27.8 with 31. The honest counterweight is that Baraniewski has only 3.7 minutes of cage time and the model docks him for it, and it still lands on 69.5 percent.
Charles Jourdain over Marlon Vera
The two biggest drivers in this fight are both mileage. Vera carries 354 UFC minutes and 1,890 absorbed significant strikes to Jourdain's 181 and 759, and he has lost four straight in the Octagon to David Martinez, Aiemann Zahabi, Deiveson Figueiredo and Sean O'Malley. Jourdain arrives on three straight wins, two by submission, with cardio in the 92nd percentile of the division, and Vera's 0.47 takedowns per fifteen means Jourdain's one real hole, 41 percent takedown defence, never gets tested.
Edmen Shahbazyan over Brunno Ferreira
Both men are coming off losses and both sit in the bottom fifteenth percentile for cardio, so this is decided early, and the model says Shahbazyan owns early: he takes round one on the cards 83 percent of the time against Ferreira's 25. He is five years younger, his punching power sits in the 97th percentile of the middleweight division, and the three wins before the Brendan Allen decision included two stoppages. We price him at 62.3 percent against the market's 62.4, so this leg is in the ticket for its probability, not for any edge, and we are saying so rather than dressing it up.
Joanderson Brito over Giga Chikadze
This is the one bout on the card where our Fight DNA style rule fires: Brito's takedown volume sits in the 89th percentile and Chikadze's ground striking in the 13th, a pairing that has gone 61 percent across 426 historical bouts and beaten the rating based expectation by 7.7 points. Brito lands 3.2 takedowns per fifteen at 68 percent accuracy with six minutes of control; Chikadze has 0.2 takedowns and 66 percent takedown defence. Chikadze is 38.1, has lost three straight including a knockout by Kevin Vallejos, and has been out 279 days.
Joshua VanChampionWIN
18-2-0· The FearlessFlyweight· ★ FOTN
Alexandre Pantoja#1
30-7-0· The Cannibal
