UFC 330: Makhachev vs Machado Garry · Results

Kaue Fernandes over Jalin Turner

Jalin Turner has lost three of his last five, two by first-round finish, while Kaue Fernandes rides a three-fight streak with first-round knockouts in two of his last three. Fernandes absorbs 1.4 significant strikes a minute to Turner's 4.3, and the model's top driver is his round-one dominance: he has won round one on the scorecards in every UFC fight. The books call this a coin flip at -106; the model makes it 58-42.

Joel Álvarez over Chidi Njokuani

Model and market agree here (71% vs 73%), which is exactly what a safe leg should look like. Joel Alvarez has finished seven of his eight UFC wins and holds a big grappling edge over the 37-year-old Chidi Njokuani, who has dropped two straight. The May submission loss to Amosov is the caveat, and it came against a far better grappler than he faces tonight.

Charles Johnson over Eduardo Chapolin

The thin-data warning on this fight is about Eduardo Chapolin, a debutant with zero UFC fights, not about Charles Johnson, who has 15 of them against much stronger opposition. Chapolin was submitted on The Ultimate Fighter as recently as February 2025. When one corner is a mystery we side with the corner that is not, and the model leans the same way at 53%.

Tresean Gore over Vicente Luque

The house call of the ticket, and the one leg where we overrule our own model: it leans Luque at 56%, and we are taking Tresean Gore anyway at -110. Gore is the submission ace in this pairing (three of his UFC wins by tap, and he just submitted Azamat Bekoev in April) against a 34-year-old Luque who has been finished twice since 2024, knocked out by Buckley and submitted by Holland, and whose takedown defense sits under 60%. Gore lands takedowns at a 73% clip; if this fight hits the mat it is his. The model's 44% on Gore is displayed, not hidden.

Myktybek Orolbai over Jeremiah Wells

The cheapest leg but the surest: Myktybek Orolbai averages nearly nine takedowns per 15 minutes, has won three straight including a first-round knockout of Jack Hermansson, and faces a 39-year-old Jeremiah Wells who has fought exactly once since February 2024. Even the model's 79% is more cautious than the books' 88%.

Dustin Stoltzfus over Mansur Abdul-Malik

The model sees this 60-40 where the books see 84-16, and a 24-point gap is normally our cue for humility, so here is the concrete case: Mansur Abdul-Malik is coming off a March knockout loss, and when his fights leave the first round his numbers collapse, with 13th-percentile cardio and the worst late-round dominance figure on the card. Dustin Stoltzfus has gone the full 15 minutes in back-to-back fights against Gastelum and Ruziboev, and the model's experience driver is stark: 104 career minutes in the cage to Abdul-Malik's 26. The one Fight DNA style edge on this card actually points Abdul-Malik's way on the mat, which we flag rather than hide; even so, the books' 16% on Stoltzfus is well under half the model's 40%.

Rafael Tobias over Lucas Fernando

Both corners are nearly data-free at UFC level, which is why this leg carries warnings, but the thin data cuts both ways: the books are laying -281 on Lucas Fernando's LFA tape while Rafael Tobias is the only man in the cage who has fought in the UFC, is six years younger, and went three rounds with an unbeaten prospect in his debut. The model reads it 58-42 for Tobias, the market 29-71. A 29-point gap is normally treated as our ignorance rather than the books' error; at +232 we accept those terms.