UFC Fight Night Fan Parlay: Fans vs Model vs Books, 8 Legs

Sixteen of the 19 fans who have picked Jose Delano vs Murtazali Magomedov took Magomedov. That's 84 percent. The sportsbooks, with their margin removed, give him 48.3 percent. Our model gives him 63.8. That's the biggest disagreement between our readers and the betting market anywhere on this card, and it sits in the middle of the ticket below.

UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs Walker is on Saturday, November 7, at the Meta Apex in Las Vegas. The prelims start at 5 p.m. ET (22:00 UTC) and the main card at 8 p.m. ET (01:00 UTC Sunday). Our card, start times and how to watch guide has the broadcaster for every country.

These are fan picks, counted and stacked. It isn't betting advice, and none of it is for anyone under 18. Odds are the sportsbook consensus as of Friday morning, November 6.

How the Fan Parlay is built

I don't choose the legs. Every bout on the card where at least five fans have picked and a strict majority agrees qualifies. The bouts are ranked by how united the fans are, with a small correction so five voters at 5-0 can't outrank 40 voters at 40-5. Then the legs are stacked at the consensus price, strongest first, until the combined price passes 10x. The ticket follows the votes until the first bell and freezes there. It lives on the event page, and it's the same ticket you see there.

This card took 225 fan picks from 40 voters. Eight bouts made the ticket. Combined, it pays 12.48x (+1148), so $100 would return $1,248.

The ticket, leg by leg

Elijah Smith over Davey Grant, -316. This is the only unanimous bout on the card: 23 picks, all for Smith. The books have him at 72.7 percent and our model goes further, to 84.5. Smith is 24, 10-1 and has won three straight in the UFC. Grant is 40 and has spent his career beating people he was supposed to lose to, which is the only argument against a unanimous crowd.

Nina Milošević over Priscila Cachoeira, -512. 16 of 17 fans, 94 percent. The books say 79.9 percent and the model says 84.7. Milošević (9-1) knocked out Hailey Cowan in the first round on August 1. Cachoeira (13-9) has lost three straight. This is the shortest price on the ticket and adds the least to it.

Marcos Degli over Mitch Raposo, -238. 15 of 16 fans. This is where the crowd and the model part ways. The books have Degli at 67.4 percent. The model has him at only 53.2, barely better than a coin flip. Degli is 15-3 and back inside seven weeks of a second-round submission on the Contender Series. Raposo (11-3) has won two decisions in a row. The fans are more certain of this one than the model is.

Jose Henrique over Jonny Parsons, -236. Another 15 of 16. The books say 67.2 percent and the model 72.2. Parsons hasn't fought since July 2023, and the market has drifted away from him all week.

Lucas Fernando over Billy Elekana, -330. 16 of 19 fans, 84 percent, in line with the books at 73.4. Our model has this fight at 50.9 to 49.1, the widest model-versus-market gap on the card. Elekana (10-2) has won three straight, the last two by submission. If this ticket dies early on the main card, this is where I'd expect it to happen.

Magomedov over Delano, -102. The lede fight. Magomedov is 11-0 and his last two wins were first-round finishes. Delano (17-3) has won his last two by decision. The market opened with Magomedov at -125 and has since turned to Delano. The fans didn't follow, and neither did the model. At 1.98x it's also the leg doing the most work on the price.

Seokhyeon Ko over Wellington Turman, -706. 18 of 22 fans. The books are the most confident party here at 83.7 percent, the model sits at 62.6, and the fans land between them at 82 percent. Turman hasn't fought since December 2023.

Mantas Kondratavicius over Andre Petroski, -302. 14 of 18 fans. The books say 71.9 percent and the model 75.2. Kondratavicius (9-1) faces a Petroski (13-6) on three straight losses. This is the leg that pushed the ticket past 10x.

What the numbers say about the whole ticket

Multiply the fans' shares together and you get a crowd that's 37.3 percent sure of all eight legs at once. The books, multiplying their own margin-free numbers, give the same eight legs 5.6 percent. Our model's numbers multiply out to 4.2 percent.

All three of those figures share one flaw: they treat the eight bouts as independent, and fights on the same card aren't. Fans who picked one favorite tend to pick the next one, and all of these prices come from the same night's market. So take the 5.6 percent as a rough guide, not a precise probability. The real gap between the crowd and the market is still enormous.

Where the fans split

Photo: Sexto Round / CC BY 3.0

The main event is the most-picked bout on the card and the least settled. Waldo Cortes Acosta leads Johnny Walker 22 to 20 among fans. That's as close to a split as 42 people get. The books and the model don't share that doubt. The consensus is -230 and +187, and our model gives Cortes Acosta 68.3 percent, almost exactly the market's number.

That's an interesting split. The two numbers that agree with each other come from sources that never see the crowd, and the crowd went nearly even. Walker took this fight on short notice after knocking out Mick Parkin in the first round at UFC 332 on October 3. Cortes Acosta has never been stopped in the UFC. A 22-20 vote counts as a majority, but it's far too thin to make the ticket.

The co-main is lopsided without making the cut. Tatiana Suarez leads Virna Jandiroba 19 to 7 among fans, while the books have her at 64.4 percent and the model at 64.9. It missed the ticket only because the stack had already passed 10x.

The one bout where the fans pick against both the books and the model is the heavyweight prelim. Gabriel Lorenço leads Thomas Petersen 9 to 4 among fans, while the market (-171) and the model both have Petersen at about 60 percent. Thirteen votes is a small sample. It's still the crowd's loudest contrarian call on the card.

Austin Bashi vs Carlos Calderon has only three picks so far, because Calderon replaced Lucas Brennan on Thursday. Below five votes a bout can't qualify for the ticket.

Add your own

The ticket is only as good as the crowd behind it, and 40 voters is a modest crowd. Your picks on the UFC Fight Night predictions page count toward this ticket until the first bell, and if they shift the majorities, the event page rebuilds it on its own. I've laid out my own picks for all 14 bouts in the full-card predictions.

Again: these are fan picks, not betting advice, and only for readers 18 and over. Eight legs, one night, and a crowd nearly seven times more confident than the books. One of them will be embarrassed by Sunday morning.