UFC Fight Night Cortes Acosta vs Walker: Predictions for All 14 Bouts
Cortes Acosta vs Walker predictions: our model vs the sportsbook consensus on all 14 UFC Fight Night bouts, where they agree, where they split, and my picks.
- Author
- Mate Bersenadze
- Published
- Nov 5, 2026
- Read time
- 8 min read
- Tags
- UFCUFC Fight Night 2026-11-07Waldo Cortes AcostaJohnny WalkerTatiana SuarezVirna JandirobaPredictions
UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs Walker fills the Meta Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday, November 7, with 14 bouts. The prelims start at 5 p.m. ET (2 p.m. PT, 22:00 UTC) and the main card at 8 p.m. ET (5 p.m. PT, 01:00 UTC Sunday). Our card, start times and how to watch guide has the broadcaster for every country.
This card has been rebuilt more than once. The heavyweight main event only exists because Bonfim vs Brady fell off on October 31, and the latest change landed in the early hours of Thursday: Lucas Brennan is out, and Carlos Calderon now meets Austin Bashi on the prelims.
Here's how I'm doing this. For every bout I put our model's win probability (it never sees a betting line) next to the sportsbook consensus with the bookmakers' margin removed. Then I make my own pick, method included.
The whole card, model vs market
| Bout | Our model | Consensus, margin removed | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cortes Acosta vs Walker | Cortes Acosta 68.3% | 66.7% | 1.6 |
| Suarez vs Jandiroba | Suarez 64.9% | 64.5% | 0.4 |
| Grant vs Smith | Smith 84.5% | 72.8% | 11.7 |
| Elekana vs Fernando | Fernando 50.9% | 73.2% | 22.3 |
| Cachoeira vs Milošević | Milošević 84.7% | 79.7% | 5.0 |
| Raposo vs Degli | Degli 53.2% | 66.9% | 13.7 |
| Nakamura vs Schmid | Nakamura 81.9% | 74.6% | 7.3 |
| Lorenço vs Petersen | Petersen 59.2% | 60.3% | 1.1 |
| Silva vs Fernandes | Silva 67.7% | 66.6% | 1.1 |
| Delano vs Magomedov | Magomedov 63.8% | 48.4% | 15.4 |
| Bashi vs Calderon | Bashi 82.0% | 78.2% | 3.8 |
| Kondratavicius vs Petroski | Kondratavicius 75.2% | 71.7% | 3.5 |
| Ko vs Turman | Ko 62.6% | 84.1% | 21.5 |
| Parsons vs Henrique | Henrique 72.2% | 67.1% | 5.1 |
Four bouts sit inside 1.6 points of each other. Two are more than 21 points apart. And in exactly one, Delano vs Magomedov, the model and the market pick different winners.
Main card
Waldo Cortes Acosta (17-4) vs Johnny Walker (23-10, 1 NC), heavyweight, five rounds. Cortes Acosta is No. 6 at heavyweight and comes in on two straight decision losses, to Alexander Volkov in May and Curtis Blaydes in September. All four of his UFC losses went to the cards, and nobody has stopped him in the UFC. Johnny Walker is in his second heavyweight fight after knocking out Mick Parkin in the first round at UFC 332 on October 3, which means he's back on 35 days' rest. The consensus is -230 and +187 across 17 sportsbooks. I went through the line movement in detail earlier this week. The short version: Volkov beat Cortes Acosta by chopping his legs from range, and Walker has an 82-inch reach and a habit of kicking legs. I'll still go with the natural heavyweight, the one who has never been stopped.
Prediction: Cortes Acosta by TKO, round 3
Photo: Tim Hipps / Public domain
Tatiana Suarez (12-1) vs Virna Jandiroba (23-4), women's strawweight. This is No. 2 against No. 3, and it's probably the bout that decides who's next at strawweight. Suarez's only loss is the five-round decision to Zhang Weili in February 2025. Since then she has beaten Amanda Lemos by decision and submitted Loopy Godinez in the second round at UFC 327 in April. Jandiroba beat Tabatha Ricci by decision in April, after losing five rounds to Mackenzie Dern in October 2025. The line has moved steadily toward Suarez, from -165 at the first price on October 28 to -207 across 18 books, and the model now agrees with the market almost to the decimal. I made the case for Jandiroba on Tuesday and I still think it holds up. But making the case for someone isn't the same as picking them.
Prediction: Suarez by decision
Davey Grant (16-8) vs Elijah Smith (10-1), bantamweight. Here the model is more bullish than the books on the favorite: Smith at 84.5 percent against a consensus of 72.8, and the line has already gone from -200 to -318. Smith is 24 and has won three straight in the UFC, the latest a second-round submission of SuYoung You in March. Grant is 40 and won a decision over Adrian Luna Martinetti in April. I wrote how Smith wins this yesterday. Grant has made a career out of being the man everyone expects to lose, so I'll hedge on the method and not the winner.
Prediction: Smith by decision
Billy Elekana (10-2) vs Lucas Fernando (14-3), light heavyweight. This is the widest gap on the card. The books have Fernando at -328, 73.2 percent with the margin removed. Our model has the fight at 50.9 to 49.1, basically a coin flip. Elekana has won three straight, the last two by submission, including Junior Tafa in the second round at UFC 325. Fernando stopped Rafael Tobias in the third round at UFC 330 in August. I went through why the two readings split on Tuesday. It's the upset I'll be watching most closely, and I came close to picking it.
Prediction: Fernando by decision
Priscila Cachoeira (13-9) vs Nina Milošević (9-1), women's bantamweight. Cachoeira has lost three straight, the latest a first-round submission to Chelsea Chandler in June. Milošević knocked out Hailey Cowan in the first round on August 1. The model goes five points further than the market toward the Serbian.
Prediction: Milošević by TKO, round 2
Mitch Raposo (11-3) vs Marcos Degli (15-3), flyweight. Degli came off Dana White's Contender Series on September 22 with a second-round submission of Paris Moran, so he's back inside seven weeks. Raposo has won two decisions in a row, the last a split over Allan Nascimento in June. The books have Degli at 66.9 percent. The model has him at only 53.2.
Prediction: Degli by decision
Prelims
Bashi vs Calderon, featherweight. Calderon (11-4, 1 NC) took this on the shortest notice on the card. His last fight was a decision win on the regional scene on October 2. Only six sportsbooks had priced it at last check, with Bashi (14-2) at -451. Bashi lost a decision to Jose Delgado in July. Prediction: Bashi by decision.
Delano vs Magomedov, featherweight. Murtazali Magomedov is 11-0, and his last two wins were first-round finishes, on the Contender Series and in his UFC debut in June. Jose Delano (17-3) has won his last two by decision. The market opened with Magomedov at -125 and has since turned all the way to Delano at -118. Our model still gives Magomedov 63.8 percent. Prediction: Magomedov by TKO, round 2.
Photo: Celsojunior96 / CC BY-SA 4.0
Ko vs Turman, welterweight. This is the other 21-point gap, and here it's the market that goes further. Seokhyeon Ko (13-3) is -735, 84.1 percent with the margin removed, up from -600 when the books opened. The model only gives him 62.6. Wellington Turman (18-8) hasn't fought since December 2023, when Jared Gooden submitted him in the second round, the last of three straight losses. A July booking against Islam Dulatov fell through. Ko lost a decision to Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani in July. Turman being out of the cage for nearly three years is something the books can price and the model may not weigh the same way. Prediction: Ko by decision.
Kondratavicius vs Petroski, middleweight. This bout moved over from the Halloween card. Petroski (13-6) is on three straight losses, but the line has drifted his way, from -375 on Mantas Kondratavicius (9-1) at the open to -299. The model sits a few points above the market. Prediction: Kondratavicius by decision.
Nakamura vs Schmid, featherweight. Keiichiro Nakamura (8-1) came through Road to UFC and stopped Sebastian Szalay in the third round at UFC 325. Ollie Schmid (4-3) was knocked out by Marwan Rahiki in the first round of his UFC debut in May. Prediction: Nakamura by TKO, round 2.
Lorenço vs Petersen, heavyweight. Gabriel Lorenço (8-1) was originally booked against Alvin Hines and has had Thomas Petersen (11-5) since October 30. Lorenço stopped Charlie Cleveland in the first round on the Contender Series in September. Petersen was submitted by Valter Walker in July. Model and market both have Petersen at about 60 percent, and I'm going the other way. Prediction: Lorenço by KO, round 1.
Silva vs Fernandes, women's flyweight. No. 11 against No. 15. Silva (19-7) has lost two straight decisions, to Maycee Barber and Jasmine Jasudavicius. Gabriella Fernandes (11-4) was stopped in the first round in March. The line has come in on Silva, from -275 to -230, and now the model agrees with it. Prediction: Silva by decision.
Parsons vs Henrique, welterweight. Jonny Parsons (9-3) hasn't fought since he stopped Danny Roberts in July 2023. Jose Henrique won a split decision over Ding Meng in May. The market has run away from Parsons, from +148 to +191, and the model is lower on him still. Prediction: Henrique by decision.
The one they can't both be right about
Thirteen times out of 14, the model and the books have the same fighter winning. They can be wrong about the size of the edge and still pick correctly. Delano vs Magomedov is the one bout where somebody's going to be plainly wrong on Saturday night. The market took a 53 percent favorite and made him a 48 percent underdog in a week, and the model, which never saw any of that, didn't move. One of them has noticed something the other hasn't. We'll know which before the main card starts.