UFC 330 predictions: Makhachev vs Machado Garry full card picks

UFC 330 lands at Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia this Saturday, August 15, with two belts on the line and a main event the market and our model cannot agree on. Early prelims open at 5:30 pm ET, prelims at 7:00 pm ET, and the main card goes at 9:00 pm ET, streaming on Paramount+ in the US. Full start times for your time zone and every broadcaster by country are on the event page and the how to watch guide.

I have picks on all twelve fights below, with our AI model's number next to each one. Quick housekeeping first: the model's probabilities are the ones rendered on the event page, refreshed against the current card, and I will disagree with the model out loud where I disagree. You are welcome to come collect on my bad picks Sunday morning. You can also log your own picks on the pick'em page and climb the leaderboard.

Islam Makhachev vs Ian Machado Garry, welterweight title

Photo: Unknown author / CC BY 3.0

Islam Makhachev (28-1) makes the first defense of the welterweight belt he took from Jack Della Maddalena last November, riding a 16 fight win streak. Ian Machado Garry (17-1) earned the shot the hard way: five rounds with Carlos Prates, a wide decision over Belal Muhammad in November, and the only blemish a five round decision loss to Shavkat Rakhmonov in December 2024.

The case for Makhachev writes itself. He absorbs 1.45 significant strikes a minute, lands at 58 percent accuracy, averages 3.10 takedowns a fight at 56 percent, and nobody has held the fight where he does not want it for years. The case against him is quieter but real: he is 34 now, he has not fought in nine months, and he gives up four inches of reach and five of height to a 28 year old who fights long, fast, and patient. Garry's 80 percent takedown defense is the best number anyone has brought into a fight with Islam in a while, and our model notices: it gives Makhachev just 60.5 percent, while the books sit near 78. I wrote about that gap when the line first moved, and covered how Garry survives the first ten minutes earlier this week.

I keep talking myself toward the upset and then rewatching Makhachev chain a level change off a slipped jab, and, no. Garry defends the first takedown of an exchange; it is the third one, against the fence, at minute four, that has never been defended.

Prediction: Makhachev by submission.

Mackenzie Dern vs Gillian Robertson, strawweight title

Mackenzie Dern (16-5) defends the strawweight title she finally won from Virna Jandiroba in October. Gillian Robertson (17-8) arrives on the quietest five fight win streak in the division: Polyana Viana, Michelle Waterson-Gomez, Luana Pinheiro, a second round stoppage of Marina Rodriguez, and a clean decision over Amanda Lemos in March. Lemos, you may remember, is one of the five names on Dern's loss column.

Here is the uncomfortable part for the champion: Robertson out-grapples her on the stat sheet. She averages 2.76 takedowns a fight to Dern's 0.93, and Dern completes just 18 percent of her attempts. Dern's jiu-jitsu is still the most decorated in the division, but you have to put someone on the floor to use it, and Robertson is the one who does the putting. Our model makes Robertson a narrow favorite at 52.5 percent while the books hold Dern around 68. I ran the full numbers on this fight earlier in the week and came away more convinced, not less.

Prediction: Robertson by decision.

The rest of the main card

Photo: MMAnytt / CC BY 3.0

Jalin Turner vs Kaue Fernandes, lightweight. Turner (15-9) looked spectacular flattening Edson Barboza in a round in December, but he is 2-3 in his last five and he gets hit: 4.54 absorbed per minute against 41 percent striking defense. Fernandes (11-2) has won three straight, absorbs 1.42 a minute, and defends 62 percent. The model favors the Brazilian at 58 percent and I cannot build the counterargument with a straight face. Turner's path is the same as it always is, one long left hand, and it is live for exactly as long as the fight lasts.

Prediction: Fernandes by decision.

Mansur Abdul-Malik vs Dustin Stoltzfus, middleweight. Abdul-Malik (9-1-1) rebounds from his first loss, a third round knockout by Yousri Belgaroui in March. Stoltzfus (16-8) has dropped two straight decisions. The books price Mansur near 87 percent; the model says 60, because he absorbs 4.9 a minute with 40 percent defense, which is how the Belgaroui fight happened. Live dog if you like chaos, but the six year age gap and the reach tell.

Prediction: Abdul-Malik by KO.

Edson Barboza vs Esteban Ribovics, lightweight. Barboza (24-14) is 40, on three straight losses, and coming off that Turner knockout. Ribovics (15-3) throws 7.27 significant strikes a minute, most in this preview by a mile. I have loved watching Barboza for fifteen years and I am not doing this to myself again. The bonus angle on this one got its own piece.

Prediction: Ribovics by KO.

Prelims, briefly

Chidi Njokuani vs Joel Álvarez, welterweight. Álvarez (23-4) had won four straight, including a decision over Vicente Luque, before Yaroslav Amosov submitted him in May. Njokuani, 37, has lost two straight, and the model gives the Spaniard 71 percent. Prediction: Álvarez by submission.

Charles Johnson vs Eduardo Chapolin, catchweight. Johnson (19-9) is the model's pick at 60 percent on the experience edge over Eduardo Chapolin (15-2). Prediction: Johnson by decision.

Donte Johnson vs Eric McConico, middleweight. Johnson (8-0) is unbeaten, 27, and nine years younger. Prediction: Johnson by decision.

Vicente Luque vs Tresean Gore, middleweight. Luque (24-12-1) submitted Kelvin Gastelum in a round in April, his reminder that the fastball still shows up some nights. Gore (7-4) is the fresher man, but the craft gap is wide. Prediction: Luque by submission.

Early prelims

Rafael Tobias vs Lucas Fernando, light heavyweight. The strangest number on the card. The books make Fernando (13-3) a heavy favorite; our model makes Tobias (14-2), a 23 year old coming off a decision loss in his debut, a 58 percent favorite. Fernando absorbs 4.73 a minute and has a zero percent takedown defense so far in the UFC. I am siding with the machine.

Prediction: Tobias by submission.

Neil Magny vs Ramiz Brahimaj, welterweight. Magny (31-15) opened as the favorite and the market has since flipped to Brahimaj (13-6). Magny at 39 is still the winningest welterweight in UFC history, but the last man who got hold of him, Yaroslav Amosov, submitted him inside a round. Prediction: Brahimaj by submission.

Jeremiah Wells vs Myktybek Orolbai, welterweight. Orolbai (16-2-1) averages 8.77 takedowns a fight and just ran through Hermansson and Curtis. Wells (13-4-1) is 39 and has fought three times since 2023. Prediction: Orolbai by submission.

That is eleven picks with the favorites' side of the model and one deliberate act of self-harm at light heavyweight. Log yours on the pick'em, and join us here Saturday night for live coverage of every card, scorecard, and bonus.