DWCS 96 results: Visconde edges Bulaid, Foster upsets Asher

Two betting favorites lost at Dana White's Contender Series 96 on Tuesday night, and they lost the same way: on all three judges' cards, after fifteen minutes of being made to fight somebody else's fight. Five unbeaten records walked into the Meta Apex in Las Vegas. Two walked out.

It was the slowest card of the season. Three of the five fights went the distance, which ties Contender Series 93 for the most decisions on any 2026 card, and only one ended in the first round. If you tuned in hoping for a repeat of last week's four first-round finishes, this was the other kind of Tuesday.

A correction before I grade anybody else. My preview called da Lapa vs Cabral the main event and had Asher vs Foster closing the show. It ran the other way around: Asher and Foster opened, and Bulaid vs Visconde went on last.

Main event: the kickboxer barely got to kick

Erick Visconde def. Ilias Bulaid, unanimous decision, 30-27 x3 (featherweight).

Bulaid is 18-3 as a professional kickboxer, and he walked in 9-0 in MMA with a no contest. Visconde is a BJJ black belt with twice as many pro fights as anyone else on the card. Everyone knew what the fight was about, and Visconde won that argument early.

He took Bulaid down nine times from 14 attempts and held 9:30 of control across three rounds. The first round was three takedowns from six tries and 4:06 of control. The second was four from five and 4:37. Add two submission attempts and 134 total strikes landed to Bulaid's 24, and the cards wrote themselves: Michael Bell, Ron McCarthy and Sal D'Amato all had it 30-27.

Here is the number that will stick. Bulaid landed one significant strike to the head in 15 minutes. One. The rest of his 24 significant strikes were 12 to the body and 11 to the legs, which is the stat line of a man throwing from underneath or off the fence, not a world-class striker hunting a finish. His third round was his busiest, 14 landed from 29 attempts, and Visconde still outlanded him in it, 24 to 14.

The market never knew what to make of this one. Bulaid opened at -130 on Sunday, firmed to -155 late Monday, and drifted back to -134 at the bell with Visconde at +110. Without the bookmakers' margin, that is Bulaid at 54.6 percent. Our model had him at 54.9. The two agreed to within a third of a point, and both were wrong together. At +110, calling Visconde's win an upset is a stretch. Calling it close is a bigger one.

My own pick was "Bulaid by TKO, though a Visconde submission is the result I would least like to explain afterwards." He did not submit him. He did something more boring and much more convincing. Visconde goes to 18-3. Bulaid is 9-1 with a no contest, and his first MMA loss came without him ever getting to fight on the feet he built his name on.

The real upset: Foster at +168

Gregory Foster def. Jason Asher, unanimous decision, 29-28 x3 (lightweight).

Asher, 26, came in having stopped all five professional opponents, four of them in the first round, three of them already in 2026. Foster is 34, and "Punch First" turned out to be a fairly accurate scouting report.

The first round had a knockdown each way, and all three judges still gave it to Foster. The second round is where he won the fight: 83 significant strikes landed from 134 attempts, against 47 from Asher. Eighty-three in five minutes. Asher's wrestling finally showed up in the third, a takedown from three tries, 2:55 of control and a submission attempt, and he won that round on every card. It was one round too late. Over the whole fight he landed one takedown from eight attempts.

Foster finished with 169 significant strikes from 284 thrown, 141 of them to the head, the most anyone landed on the card. Asher landed 93 from 174. David Sutherland, Ron McCarthy and Sal D'Amato each scored it 29-28, and Mike Beltran was the referee.

Asher opened at -250 on Sunday and closed at -202, with Foster at +168, which is roughly a 36 percent chance once the margin comes out. Our model had Foster at 38.9. Still the wrong side, but of the five favorites this was the one the market had been backing away from all week, and the model was already lower on him than the books.

I picked Asher by TKO in round one. Wrong winner, wrong method, wrong round. Asher is 5-1, and this was the first time he has needed the judges as a pro.

The rest of the card

On to the other three, in order of how much they told us:

Smilla Sundell def. Aline Pereira, unanimous decision, 29-28 x3 (women's bantamweight). The one I get to brag about, briefly. The preview line was "Sundell by decision, and I would not be shocked if Pereira takes a round." Every judge (Bell, McCarthy, D'Amato) gave Pereira a round. The books were far more certain: Sundell opened at -333 on Sunday, touched -761 late Monday and closed at -567, about 81 percent after the margin. Our model gave her 66.4. Sundell threw 358 significant strikes and landed 106 of them, 41 to the body and 19 to the legs. Pereira landed 85 from 192, the more accurate fighter by a distance, and took Sundell down in the third round for 1:01 of control. Sundell is 3-0 and has now seen a scorecard. Pereira is 3-3, and in six professional MMA fights nobody has finished her. A -567 favorite winning 29-28 on all three cards is about as clean a case for the model's caution as you will get: right winner, a lot less certainty.

Douglas da Lapa def. Davi Cabral, TKO, round 3, 0:10 (middleweight). Two unbeaten Brazilians, one zero gone. Cabral, the BJJ black belt, got both of his takedowns in the first round and attempted a submission, and on the feet that round was nearly even, 39 to 37 in significant strikes. Then da Lapa took over. The second round was 74 landed from 131 against Cabral's 31 from 70, and ten seconds into the third a knockdown brought Frank Trigg in. Da Lapa finished with 117 significant strikes, 30 of them to the body. The market spent the whole week walking away from him, -234 on Sunday to -161 at the bell, about 59 percent. Our model held at 66.1, the only fight on the card where it ended up more confident than the closing line, and its side won. I had da Lapa by TKO in round two. Ten seconds late. He is 7-0 with six TKOs. Cabral is 7-1.

Luis Francischinelli def. William Rentz, TKO, round 1, 2:20 (welterweight). The only first-round finish of the night, from the pairing that came in with 14 professional wins between them and every one of them a knockout. Rentz did the sensible thing and wrestled, a takedown from four tries and 1:25 of control, which was more control than Francischinelli had all fight. It did not matter. Francischinelli landed 16 of 23 significant strikes, ten of them on the ground, with a knockdown, and Beltran waved it off at 2:20. He closed at -251, about 68 percent, and our model had him at 67.0. That is 7-1 with all seven wins by knockout, six in round one. Rentz falls to 8-3. My pick was Francischinelli by TKO in round one, so that is two exact methods for me this week.

How the numbers did

On winners it is a dead heat, and an unusually tidy one. The model and the closing line had the same favorite in all five fights, and both went three for five. I took the same five sides, so I am three for five as well. Nobody in this paragraph had Visconde or Foster.

Score it by how much probability each one put on the people who actually won, and the market edges it: an average of 58.0 percent per winner against the model's 56.7, once the margin is taken out of the prices. Nearly all of that gap is Sundell, where the books were about 15 points more confident and turned out right about the winner. The model got some of it back on da Lapa, where it was seven points more confident than the line, and on Foster, where it was three points less wrong.

So the week's lesson cuts both ways. The model's doubt about Sundell cost it on the scoreboard and was backed up by the scorecards. And the market's most confident miss of the night was Asher, priced at 64 percent and beaten in every round but the last.

Where the season stands

Through ten cards, the 2026 Contender Series has 34 finishes in 49 fights, 69.4 percent, and 22 of those 49 ended in the first round. After last week it was 72.7 percent. Tuesday's two finishes from five took more than three points off the season rate on their own.

Ilias Bulaid brought an 18-3 kickboxing record and an unbeaten MMA one into the main event, and he landed one significant strike to Erick Visconde's head. Nine takedowns will do that. The next kickboxer who gets booked against a black belt on this show should have that number taped to the locker room wall.