Buckley vs Malott predictions: the two fights the model flips

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs Malott fills Rogers Place in Edmonton on Saturday, October 17. The prelims start at 5 p.m. ET (3 p.m. in Edmonton, 10 p.m. in the UK) and the main card at 8 p.m. ET (6 p.m. local, 1 a.m. Sunday in the UK). Thirteen fights, twelve Canadians, and a main event between two ranked welterweights that the betting market has spent the week turning around.

I have already written about that line move and about the two fights under it (the Buckley odds, Blanchfield, Jasudavicius and their shared opponents, Barriault's home-soil record). This is the full-card piece, and the number I care about is how often our model and the sportsbook consensus agree. On eleven of the thirteen fights they pick the same winner. On two of them they do not: one is on the main card, the other opens the night.

The main event: the model got there first

Photo: Btcfight / CC BY-SA 4.0

Joaquin Buckley (21-8), No. 8 in the welterweight rankings, opened as a +131 underdog to No. 11 Mike Malott (14-2-1). He is +108 now, with Malott at -131, which prices the Canadian at about 54 percent. Our model gives Malott 56.0 percent. After a week of movement toward Buckley, the market has landed almost exactly where the model already was.

The case for Malott is four UFC wins in a row: a decision over Trevin Giles in November 2024, a 26-second second-round TKO of Charles Radtke at UFC 315, a decision over Kevin Holland last October, and a third-round TKO of Gilbert Burns in April. He lands 52 percent of his significant strikes, and at 34 he gets to do it on a Canadian card.

The case for Buckley is his two biggest wins, third-round TKOs of Stephen Thompson at UFC 307 and Colby Covington in December 2024, plus 76 inches of reach against Malott's 73. The case against him is what came after: unanimous decisions lost to Kamaru Usman and Sean Brady, the second of them at UFC 328 in May. Buckley lands only 36 percent of his significant strikes, and that number and Malott's 89 percent UFC win rate are two of the inputs pulling the model hardest toward the Canadian. The one thing it holds in Buckley's favor is age: he is 32, Malott 34.

This is a five-rounder, and both of Buckley's big wins came late, in the third round. So did Malott's finish of Burns. If the fight gets past 15 minutes, I trust the man who has won his last four.

Prediction: Malott by decision.

Blanchfield and the one number the market won't match

Photo: MM-eh / CC BY 3.0

Erin Blanchfield (14-2), No. 3 at women's flyweight, against No. 6 Jasmine Jasudavicius (15-4) is the co-main, and it is the fight where the model is most confident of anything on the card. It gives Blanchfield 80.1 percent. The consensus has her at -330, about 73 percent, up from -230 at the open, so the market is moving the model's way and still sits seven points short.

The biggest single factor is the birth certificate. Blanchfield is 27, Jasudavicius 37, and the model treats that ten-year gap as worth more than anything in either woman's striking. Jasudavicius has done everything asked of her lately: a first-round submission of Jéssica Andrade at UFC 315, a decision over Karine Silva in April. Her one recent loss is the one everyone will mention, a 74-second TKO by Manon Fiorot last October, and Fiorot is also the only woman to beat Blanchfield in the UFC.

Blanchfield's last two were a decision over Rose Namajunas and a second-round submission of Tracy Cortez at UFC 322. She lands 5.24 significant strikes a minute to Jasudavicius' 3.35, and she is the more dangerous grappler in a fight where Jasudavicius takes down 2.49 per 15 minutes. That is the part of this fight I would watch: whether the Canadian's wrestling survives contact with a better jiu-jitsu player.

Prediction: Blanchfield by submission in round two.

The two flips

Jourdain vs Cuamba. Louis Jourdain (9-3) makes his UFC debut at bantamweight a year after earning his contract on the Contender Series with a third-round rear-naked choke of Magno Dias. He opened at -195 against Timmy Cuamba (10-4) and is -184 now, about 62 percent. Our model gives Cuamba 63.3 percent, the largest gap on the card at roughly 25 points.

What the model sees is experience at this level, not tape. His one fight under the UFC banner, on the Contender Series, was a dominant one: 64 significant strikes landed to 18 with two knockdowns, and the model's striking inputs actually favor him because of it. Everything else goes the other way: Cuamba is two years younger, has had six fights on UFC broadcasts including his Contender Series win, and lost only once in his pre-UFC career against Jourdain's three. I have a separate breakdown of how Cuamba gets this done. My own read is closer to the market than the model, because one fight against Dias is still one fight more than the model can weigh.

Prediction: Jourdain by decision, with less confidence than the line suggests.

Chovancek vs You. The prelim opener is the other one. Cody Chovancek (9-0) is -134 against SuYoung You (16-4, 2 NC), about 55 percent. Our model gives You 59.8 percent. The reason is takedowns: You averages 3.2 per 15 minutes, Chovancek has not been taken down in the fights we have tracked but has not landed one either, and the model reads an unbeaten record built largely on the Unified MMA circuit as thinner than You's 20 professional bouts. You's last fight was a second-round submission loss to Elijah Smith in March. Chovancek's was a TKO seconds into the third round on the Contender Series in September 2025. He is the third Niagara Top Team fighter on this card, with Malott and Jasudavicius.

Prediction: You by decision.

Agreements, and how loudly

The rest of the card is a list of shared favorites, and the useful part is the size of the disagreement.

Three of those deserve a sentence each.

Steven Koslow (6-1) has not fought since a third-round TKO loss to Cameron Saaiman at UFC 282 in December 2022, nearly four years ago. Chad Anheliger (13-8) opened as the -110 favorite and is now +128. The model is far ahead of that move at 73.2 percent for Koslow, and the reasons are blunt: Anheliger turns 40 in December, defends 27 percent of takedowns in the UFC, and Koslow landed 5.28 per 15 minutes in his one appearance there. Prediction: Koslow by submission.

Nick Galanti (8-1) knocked out Carlos Petruzzella in 35 seconds at Contender Series 89 in August and stepped in for Gilbert Urbina on October 6. The market has him at 82.8 percent against Julien Leblanc (10-3), the model at 68.1. Leblanc was submitted in his UFC debut in April. The model's doubt is about sample size, not about Galanti. Prediction: Galanti by TKO.

Katlyn Cerminara (18-6) has not fought since a decision loss to Maycee Barber at UFC 299 in March 2024. She is -276 against Mackenzie Stiller (6-1), who has won three straight in LFA, all by submission. The model gives Cerminara 60.4 percent, ten points below the market, almost entirely on age: 37 against 27.

Photo: MMAnytt / CC BY 3.0

The quick picks for the rest: Cristian Pérez over Kyle Nelson by TKO (Nelson, 35, was stopped by Terrance McKinney in 24 seconds in March); Kyle Daukaus over Marc-Andre Barriault by submission; Mandel Nallo over Nate Landwehr by TKO (Landwehr has lost three straight, all stoppages); Jhonata Diniz over Tanner Boser by decision; Joel Faglier over Javad Mahjoub by decision in a fight between two unbeaten heavyweights ten years apart; and Melissa Croden over Chelsea Chandler by decision.

What the disagreements have in common

Line the gaps up and a pattern falls out. Where the model is less sure than the books, it is usually because one fighter's résumé is short (Galanti, Pérez, Chovancek) or idle (Cerminara). Where it is more sure, it is because the other fighter is older and the market has not fully priced it (Jasudavicius, Anheliger, Mahjoub). The model does not watch tape. It counts, and on this card the thing it counts most is the calendar.

The full card, the live line and the model's numbers for every bout are on the event page. You can lock in your own 13 picks at the pick'em before the prelims start at 5 p.m. ET on Saturday.