What are projected UFC rankings?

A forecast of the next official UFC media rankings, made right after a card from the results and the current board, before the panel publishes its vote.

How does the projection work?

Each result is applied to the current board with rules fitted on 13 years of UFC rankings: a lower-ranked winner takes the loser's spot 55% of the time (84% within one place), and a dethroned champion lands at #1 91% of the time.

On boards from 2025 onward, which the model never saw while it was built, the projection matched 79.5% of positions exactly against 75.3% for assuming nothing changes, and put 96.6% of fighters within one place of their official rank.

UFCalendar Panel Model

Projected UFC Rankings

Where the UFC media panel is likely to put every fighter after the latest card. We roll the current official board forward through each result using the rules the panel has followed since 2013, then score the projection against the real board when it lands.

See the full track record →Current official UFC rankings →

How the panel moves fighters

Measured on every UFC board update since 2013 where a ranked fighter fought.

A lower-ranked winner lands exactly on the loser's old spot 55% of the time, and within one place of it 84% of the time. The loser usually drops one or two places.
A higher-ranked winner stays where they are 57% of the time; otherwise they climb one or two places.
An unranked fighter who beats a ranked one enters at the loser's spot 37% of the time. A ranked fighter who loses to an unranked one falls off the board 45% of the time.
A champion who loses the belt lands at #1 91% of the time.
An interim title winner goes straight to #1.

The panel also moves fighters who did not fight: retirements, releases, division moves and re-votes at the bottom of the board. No result-based model can see those, so they cap the accuracy.

Questions

What are projected UFC rankings?: A forecast of the next official UFC media rankings, made right after a card from the results and the current board, before the panel publishes its vote.
How does the projection work?: Each result is applied to the current board with rules fitted on 13 years of UFC rankings: a lower-ranked winner takes the loser's spot 55% of the time (84% within one place), and a dethroned champion lands at #1 91% of the time.
How accurate is it?: On boards from 2025 onward, which the model never saw while it was built, the projection matched 79.5% of positions exactly against 75.3% for assuming nothing changes, and put 96.6% of fighters within one place of their official rank.