Ultimate Fighting Calendar
Flyweight3 rounds scheduled
WIN
Rafael Estevam
Macapa
14-1-0
RESULT

Rafael Estevam def. Jesus Aguilar (Unanimous Decision)

Unanimous Decision · Round 3 · 5:00
Saturday, February 15, 2025
Meta Apex, Las Vegas, United States

Rafael Estevam defeated Jesus Aguilar by Unanimous Decision in round 3 (5:00) in the Flyweight bout of UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs Rodrigues, held Saturday, February 15, 2025 at Meta Apex, Las Vegas. The judges scored it 29-28, 29-28, 29-28, Rafael Estevam won the decision.

Fight stats

Rafael Estevam
Jesus Aguilar
0
Knockdowns
0
11 of 30
Significant strikes
35 of 87
37%
Sig. strike accuracy
40%
60 of 96
Total strikes
41 of 95
11 of 19
Takedowns
2 of 5
58%
Takedown accuracy
40%
0
Submission attempts
2
0
Reversals
0
9:22
Control time
1:14
Significant strikes by target
6 of 20
Head
26 of 75
5 of 10
Body
4 of 5
0 of 0
Leg
5 of 7
9 of 28
Distance
31 of 76
1 of 1
Clinch
3 of 10
1 of 1
Ground
1 of 1

By round

ROUND 1
0
KD
0
2 of 2
Sig. str.
2 of 2
23 of 28
Total str.
3 of 3
5 of 6
Takedowns
0 of 0
0
Sub. att
1
3:54
Ctrl
0:30
ROUND 2
0
KD
0
1 of 2
Sig. str.
5 of 10
29 of 42
Total str.
5 of 11
5 of 7
Takedowns
0 of 1
0
Sub. att
1
4:30
Ctrl
0:00
ROUND 3
0
KD
0
8 of 26
Sig. str.
28 of 75
8 of 26
Total str.
33 of 81
1 of 6
Takedowns
2 of 4
0
Sub. att
0
0:58
Ctrl
0:44

Judges' Scorecards

#EstevamAguilar
1109
2109
3910
Total2928
#EstevamAguilar
1109
2109
3910
Total2928
#EstevamAguilar
1109
2109
3910
Total2928

Media Scores

12
Estevam
-
0
Aguilar
29-28 Estevam×12
All 12 media scorecards

Fan Scorecards

96%
Estevam
4%
Draw
0%
Aguilar
24 fan scorecards submitted
29-28 Estevam95.8%28-28 Draw4.2%
Fans' round-by-round verdict
R1
100%
Estevam
R2
100%
Estevam
R3
96%
Aguilar

Scorecard data via mmadecisions.com

Betting Odds

Rafael Estevam
-741
88% implied win probability
Open: -331Best: -575
Jesus Aguilar
+637
14% implied win probability
Open: +256Best: +3000

Average moneyline across 17 sportsbooks.

SportsbookRafael EstevamJesus Aguilar
4casters-588+515
Bet105-728+502
BetAnything-600+370
BetOnline-650+475
BetRivers-625+440
BetUS-620+420
Betway-1429+600
Bookmaker-1358+710
Bovada-575+400
Caesars-650+460
Circa-640+480
Cloudbet-637+474
DraftKings-20000+3000
FanDuel-1100+620
MyBookie-599+420
Pinnacle-625+446
SXBet-733+497

Odds are for information only. · Odds data: fightodds.io

Frequently asked questions

Who won Rafael Estevam vs Jesus Aguilar?

Rafael Estevam defeated Jesus Aguilar by Unanimous Decision in round 3 (5:00) in the Flyweight bout of UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs Rodrigues, held Saturday, February 15, 2025 at Meta Apex, Las Vegas. The judges scored it 29-28, 29-28, 29-28, Rafael Estevam won the decision.

What were the judges' scorecards for Rafael Estevam vs Jesus Aguilar?

The judges scored it 29-28, 29-28, 29-28, Rafael Estevam won the decision.

Was Rafael Estevam vs Jesus Aguilar a robbery?

Public scoring backed the judges: 100% of 12 media scores picked Rafael Estevam.

Full robbery index
Referee
Chris Tognoni
Time format
3 Rnd (5-5-5)
Pre-fight comparison

Win probability

Rafael Estevam 48%52% Jesus Aguilar

What the model gave each fighter going into the fight, from their pre-fight UFCalendar Power Index ratings. See the full Power Index

Fight DNA

Head to head

UFCalendar's style model · Flyweight roster (107 fighters)

Rafael Estevam
Pressure Wrestler
4 edges
Jesus Aguilar
Striking Technician
7 edges
PowerSpeedPrecisionDurabilityEngineWrestlingGround

Radar scaled to this matchup · bars show the gap

Style shape

49Power90
51Speed96
47Precision69
70Durability70
96Engine95
98Wrestling91
86Ground73

Biggest edge Jesus Aguilar, Punch speed +46

Attribute by attribute

Rafael Estevam is on the left of every row, Jesus Aguilar on the right.
45Punch power84
53Kick power96
48Punch speed94
54Kick speed98
47Accuracy69
98Takedowns91
79Ground striking51
92Submissions95
70Chin71
69Body strength68
96Cardio95

Attributes are rated 0-100 by UFCalendar's style model.

Tale of the Tape

14-1-0
Record
12-4-0
1741
Power Index rating
1753
0
Win Streak
0
30
Age
30
5'8"
173 cm
Height
5'4"
163 cm
69"
175 cm
Reach
62"
157 cm
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Flyweight
Weight Class
Flyweight
Brazil
Nationality
Mexico

Striking Profile

2.40
SLpM
2.54
39%
Str. Acc.
38%
3.90
SApM
2.29
45%
Str. Def.
61%

Grappling Profile

4.91
TD Avg.
1.52
33%
TD Acc.
29%
66%
TD Def.
45%
0.20
Sub. Avg.
1.10

Recent form (last 5 fights)

Rafael Estevam · 4-1
  • L
    UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs Duncan · Apr 4, 2026
    TKO · R3 · 1:44 · Bantamweight
  • W
    UFC Fight Night: Taira vs Park · Aug 2, 2025
    Unanimous Decision · R3 · 5:00 · Flyweight
  • W
    UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs Rodrigues · Feb 15, 2025
    Unanimous Decision · R3 · 5:00 · Flyweight
  • W
    UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Craig · Nov 18, 2023
    Unanimous Decision · R3 · 5:00 · Flyweight
  • W
    Contender Series 2022 · Sep 27, 2022
    TKO · R2 · 2:25 · Flyweight
Jesus Aguilar · 3-2
  • L
    UFC 326: Holloway vs Oliveira 2 · Mar 7, 2026
    Unanimous Decision · R3 · 5:00 · Flyweight
  • W
    Noche UFC: Lopes vs Silva · Sep 13, 2025
    Unanimous Decision · R3 · 5:00 · Flyweight
  • L
    UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs Rodrigues · Feb 15, 2025
    Unanimous Decision · R3 · 5:00 · Flyweight
  • W
    UFC 305: Du Plessis vs Adesanya · Aug 17, 2024
    Submission · R1 · 2:39 · Flyweight
  • W
    UFC Mexico City · Feb 25, 2024
    Split Decision · R3 · 5:00 · Flyweight

Career Averages

Based on 4 fights · 7 fights
26.5
Avg sig. strikes
25.3
4.75
Avg takedowns
0.71
7:22
Avg control time
1:21
44
Career high strikes
85
11
Career high TDs
2

Strike Distribution

Rafael Estevam
Strike target
Jesus Aguilar
69%
Head
49%
18%
Body
24%
13%
Leg
27%
Rafael Estevam
Strike position
Jesus Aguilar
84%
Distance
88%
5%
Clinch
10%
11%
Ground
3%