Road to 4 FeatherweightTITLE FIGHT5 rounds scheduled
RESULT
Keiichiro Nakamura def. Sebastian Szalay (TKO)
TKO · Round 3 · 3:48
Saturday, January 31, 2026
Qudos Bank Arena, Sydney Olympic Park, Australia
Keiichiro Nakamura defeated Sebastian Szalay by TKO in round 3 (3:48) in the Road to 4 Featherweight bout of UFC 325: Volkanovski vs Lopes 2, held Saturday, January 31, 2026 at Qudos Bank Arena, Sydney Olympic Park.
Fight stats
Keiichiro Nakamura
Sebastian Szalay
1
Knockdowns
0
45 of 119
Significant strikes
79 of 204
38%
Sig. strike accuracy
39%
46 of 120
Total strikes
80 of 205
0 of 0
Takedowns
1 of 1
-
Takedown accuracy
100%
0
Submission attempts
0
0
Reversals
0
0:04
Control time
0:00
Significant strikes by target
21 of 86
Head
47 of 150
11 of 18
Body
24 of 46
13 of 15
Leg
8 of 8
41 of 112
Distance
78 of 202
1 of 3
Clinch
1 of 1
3 of 4
Ground
0 of 1
By round
ROUND 1
0
KD
0
13 of 33
Sig. str.
23 of 63
13 of 33
Total str.
23 of 63
0 of 0
Takedowns
0 of 0
0
Sub. att
0
0:00
Ctrl
0:00
ROUND 2
0
KD
0
11 of 39
Sig. str.
24 of 78
11 of 39
Total str.
24 of 78
0 of 0
Takedowns
1 of 1
0
Sub. att
0
0:00
Ctrl
0:00
ROUND 3
1
KD
0
21 of 47
Sig. str.
32 of 63
22 of 48
Total str.
33 of 64
0 of 0
Takedowns
0 of 0
0
Sub. att
0
0:04
Ctrl
0:00
Betting Odds
Keiichiro Nakamura
+157
39% implied win probability
Open: -107Best: +1100
Sebastian Szalay
-134
57% implied win probability
Open: -111Best: -116
Average moneyline across 21 sportsbooks.
| Sportsbook | Keiichiro Nakamura | Sebastian Szalay |
|---|---|---|
| 4casters | +109 | -116 |
| 4Cx | +107 | -118 |
| Bet105 | +108 | -121 |
| BetAnything | +105 | -135 |
| BetMGM | +110 | -135 |
| BetOnline | +105 | -125 |
| BetRivers | +1100 | -5000 |
| BetUS | +110 | -130 |
| Betway | +110 | -138 |
| Bookmaker | +112 | -132 |
| Bovada | +102 | -122 |
| Caesars | +110 | -130 |
| Cloudbet | +113 | -127 |
| DraftKings | +105 | -125 |
| FanDuel | +112 | -132 |
| HardRockBet | +105 | -130 |
| MyBookie | +110 | -135 |
| Pinnacle | +118 | -133 |
| Polymarket | +117 | -122 |
| Stake | +111 | -120 |
| SXBet | +113 | -127 |
Odds are for information only. · Odds data: fightodds.io
Frequently asked questions
Who won Keiichiro Nakamura vs Sebastian Szalay?
Keiichiro Nakamura defeated Sebastian Szalay by TKO in round 3 (3:48) in the Road to 4 Featherweight bout of UFC 325: Volkanovski vs Lopes 2, held Saturday, January 31, 2026 at Qudos Bank Arena, Sydney Olympic Park.
Referee
Herb Dean
Time format
3 Rnd + OT (5-5-5-5)
Pre-fight comparison▾
Win probability
Keiichiro Nakamura 50%50% Sebastian Szalay
What the model gave each fighter going into the fight, from their pre-fight UFCalendar Power Index ratings. See the full Power Index
Tale of the Tape
8-1-0
Record
10-2-0
1694
Power Index rating
1697
1
Win Streak
0
27
Age
32
5'10"
178 cm
Height
5'6"
168 cm
70"
178 cm
Reach
66"
168 cm
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Road to 4 Featherweight
Weight Class
Road to 4 Featherweight
Japan
Nationality
Australia
Striking Profile
4.48
SLpM
4.94
41%
Str. Acc.
41%
4.28
SApM
2.20
63%
Str. Def.
65%
Grappling Profile
0.00
TD Avg.
0.51
0%
TD Acc.
20%
78%
TD Def.
84%
0.00
Sub. Avg.
0.00
Recent form (last 5 fights)
Keiichiro Nakamura · 5-0
Sebastian Szalay · 4-1
Head-to-Head History
Career Averages
Based on 1 fight · 1 fight
45.0
Avg sig. strikes
79.0
0.00
Avg takedowns
1.00
0:04
Avg control time
0:00
45
Career high strikes
79
0
Career high TDs
1
Strike Distribution
Keiichiro Nakamura
Strike target
Sebastian Szalay
47%
Head
59%
24%
Body
30%
29%
Leg
10%
Keiichiro Nakamura
Strike position
Sebastian Szalay
91%
Distance
99%
2%
Clinch
1%
7%
Ground
0%