Ultimate Fighting Calendar
UFCUFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs Guskov
Welterweight3 rounds scheduled
Abubakar Vagaev
RussiaAbubakar Vagaev
“Soldado”
24-4-0
STARTS IN··d ··h ··m

Abubakar Vagaev vs Saygid Izagakhmaev

Saygid Izagakhmaev
RussiaSaygid Izagakhmaev
22-3-0
Saturday, July 25, 2026
Etihad Arena, Yas Island/Yas West, United Arab Emirates

UFCal model win probability (v1.2)

Abubakar Vagaev 60%40% Saygid Izagakhmaev

What drove this number

  • Opposition level (Elo)
    1664.0UFCal Elo rating1547.0
    66%Elo win expectancy34%
    –Elo trend (last 3)47.0
  • Full career
    14.0Career wins22.0
    15.0Career fights25.0
    93%Career win rate88%
  • Age & prime
    33.3Age31.9
    0.3y past primeprime fading
  • UFC record
    3.0Win streak0.0
    13.0UFC experience4.0
    92%UFC win rate75%
  • Layoff & stance
    532.0Layoff245.0
    0.0Southpaw matchup0.0
    0.0Switch stance0.0

Model opinion, not betting advice. 18+.

Win probability

Abubakar Vagaev 66%34% Saygid Izagakhmaev

Based on both fighters' current UFCal Elo ratings. See all Elo ratings

Tale of the Tape

24-4-0
Record
22-3-0
1664
Elo rating
1547
3
Win Streak
0
33
Age
31
5'11"
180 cm
Height
6'0"
183 cm
73"
185 cm
Reach
74"
188 cm
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Welterweight
Weight Class
Welterweight
Russia
Nationality
Russia

Striking Profile

0.00
SLpM
1.33
0%
Str. Acc.
58%
0.00
SApM
1.73
0%
Str. Def.
58%

Grappling Profile

0.00
TD Avg.
4.00
0%
TD Acc.
40%
0%
TD Def.
100%
0.00
Sub. Avg.
0.00

Recent form (last 5 fights)

Abubakar Vagaev · 4-1
  • W
    Albert Tumenov
    ACA 183: Tumenov vs VagaevSat, Feb 8, 2025
    Decision · R5 · 5:00 · Welterweight
  • W
    Edil Esengulov
    ACA 172: Ismailov vs TokovSat, Mar 9, 2024
    Decision · Light Heavyweight
  • W
    Michel Prazeres
    ACA 162 - Tumenov vs. PalmerSat, Sep 2, 2023
    Unanimous Decision · R5 · 5:00 · Welterweight
  • L
    Vitaliy Slipenko
    ACA 149: Vagaev vs SlipenkoFri, Dec 16, 2022
    Knockout · R2 · 00:20 · Welterweight
  • W
    Ustarmagomed Gadzhidaudov
    ACA 138: Vagaev vs GadzhidaudovSat, Mar 26, 2022
    Decision · R5 · 5:00 · Welterweight
Saygid Izagakhmaev · 3-1
  • L
    Nicolas Dalby
    UFC Qatar: Tsarukyan vs HookerSat, Nov 22, 2025
    Split Decision · R3 · 5:00 · Welterweight
  • W
    Shinya Aoki
    ONE 163: Akimoto vs. PetchtanongSat, Nov 19, 2022
    TKO · R1 · Lightweight
  • W
    Zhang Lipeng
    ONE 161: Petchmorakot vs. TawanchaiThu, Sep 29, 2022
    Unanimous Decision · R3 · Lightweight
  • W
    James Nakashima
    Heavy HittersFri, Jan 14, 2022
    Submission · R2 · 2:17 · Lightweight

Career Averages

Based on 0 fights · 1 fight
—
Avg sig. strikes
20.0
—
Avg takedowns
4.00
—
Avg control time
5:18
—
Career high strikes
20
—
Career high TDs
4

Strike Distribution

Abubakar Vagaev
Strike target
Saygid Izagakhmaev
—
Head
55%
—
Body
45%
—
Leg
0%
Abubakar Vagaev
Strike position
Saygid Izagakhmaev
—
Distance
40%
—
Clinch
50%
—
Ground
10%

Betting Odds

Abubakar Vagaev
-229
70% implied win probability
Open: -278Best: -205
Saygid Izagakhmaev
+195
34% implied win probability
Open: +188Best: +212

Average moneyline across 25 sportsbooks.

Line Movement

Abubakar VagaevSaygid Izagakhmaev
30%40%50%60%70%80%Jul 19Jul 21Jul 23Jul 25Jul 19, 6:50 AM UTC — Abubakar Vagaev -503 (83%)Jul 19, 12:50 PM UTC — Abubakar Vagaev -471 (82%)Jul 22, 10:50 PM UTC — Abubakar Vagaev -273 (73%)Jul 23, 12:50 AM UTC — Abubakar Vagaev -218 (69%)Jul 23, 2:50 AM UTC — Abubakar Vagaev -218 (69%)Jul 23, 6:50 AM UTC — Abubakar Vagaev -218 (69%)Jul 23, 8:50 AM UTC — Abubakar Vagaev -220 (69%)Jul 23, 12:50 PM UTC — Abubakar Vagaev -222 (69%)Jul 23, 2:50 PM UTC — Abubakar Vagaev -223 (69%)Jul 23, 6:50 PM UTC — Abubakar Vagaev -216 (68%)Jul 23, 8:50 PM UTC — Abubakar Vagaev -253 (72%)Jul 23, 10:50 PM UTC — Abubakar Vagaev -254 (72%)Jul 24, 12:50 AM UTC — Abubakar Vagaev -252 (72%)Jul 24, 4:20 AM UTC — Abubakar Vagaev -251 (72%)Jul 24, 6:50 AM UTC — Abubakar Vagaev -250 (71%)Jul 24, 2:50 PM UTC — Abubakar Vagaev -250 (71%)Jul 24, 4:50 PM UTC — Abubakar Vagaev -249 (71%)Jul 24, 6:51 PM UTC — Abubakar Vagaev -247 (71%)Jul 24, 8:50 PM UTC — Abubakar Vagaev -245 (71%)Jul 24, 10:50 PM UTC — Abubakar Vagaev -248 (71%)Jul 25, 12:50 AM UTC — Abubakar Vagaev -249 (71%)Jul 25, 2:50 AM UTC — Abubakar Vagaev -242 (71%)Jul 25, 4:21 AM UTC — Abubakar Vagaev -240 (71%)Jul 25, 6:50 AM UTC — Abubakar Vagaev -241 (71%)Jul 25, 8:50 AM UTC — Abubakar Vagaev -241 (71%)Jul 25, 10:50 AM UTC — Abubakar Vagaev -238 (70%)Jul 25, 12:50 PM UTC — Abubakar Vagaev -233 (70%)Jul 25, 2:50 PM UTC — Abubakar Vagaev -229 (70%)Jul 19, 6:50 AM UTC — Saygid Izagakhmaev -337 (77%)Jul 19, 12:50 PM UTC — Saygid Izagakhmaev -296 (75%)Jul 22, 10:50 PM UTC — Saygid Izagakhmaev +220 (31%)Jul 23, 12:50 AM UTC — Saygid Izagakhmaev +211 (32%)Jul 23, 2:50 AM UTC — Saygid Izagakhmaev +210 (32%)Jul 23, 6:50 AM UTC — Saygid Izagakhmaev +211 (32%)Jul 23, 8:50 AM UTC — Saygid Izagakhmaev +211 (32%)Jul 23, 12:50 PM UTC — Saygid Izagakhmaev +212 (32%)Jul 23, 2:50 PM UTC — Saygid Izagakhmaev +214 (32%)Jul 23, 6:50 PM UTC — Saygid Izagakhmaev +200 (33%)Jul 23, 8:50 PM UTC — Saygid Izagakhmaev +206 (33%)Jul 23, 10:50 PM UTC — Saygid Izagakhmaev +206 (33%)Jul 24, 12:50 AM UTC — Saygid Izagakhmaev +206 (33%)Jul 24, 4:20 AM UTC — Saygid Izagakhmaev +205 (33%)Jul 24, 6:50 AM UTC — Saygid Izagakhmaev +206 (33%)Jul 24, 2:50 PM UTC — Saygid Izagakhmaev +205 (33%)Jul 24, 4:50 PM UTC — Saygid Izagakhmaev +206 (33%)Jul 24, 6:51 PM UTC — Saygid Izagakhmaev +205 (33%)Jul 24, 8:50 PM UTC — Saygid Izagakhmaev +204 (33%)Jul 24, 10:50 PM UTC — Saygid Izagakhmaev +202 (33%)Jul 25, 12:50 AM UTC — Saygid Izagakhmaev +201 (33%)Jul 25, 2:50 AM UTC — Saygid Izagakhmaev +202 (33%)Jul 25, 4:21 AM UTC — Saygid Izagakhmaev +201 (33%)Jul 25, 6:50 AM UTC — Saygid Izagakhmaev +200 (33%)Jul 25, 8:50 AM UTC — Saygid Izagakhmaev +202 (33%)Jul 25, 10:50 AM UTC — Saygid Izagakhmaev +199 (33%)Jul 25, 12:50 PM UTC — Saygid Izagakhmaev +198 (34%)Jul 25, 2:50 PM UTC — Saygid Izagakhmaev +195 (34%)-229+195
SportsbookAbubakar VagaevSaygid Izagakhmaev
4casters-208+181
4Cx-212+185
Bet105-215+189
BetAnything-225+175
BetMGM-250+200
BetOnline-230+195
BetRivers-263+205
BetUS-220+182
Betway-275+210
Bookmaker-240+199
Bovada-235+195
Caesars-240+200
Circa-225+195
Cloudbet-222+185
DraftKings-225+185
FanDuel-250+205
HardRockBet-260+210
Kalshi-213+212
MyBookie-238+190
Pinnacle-215+189
Polymarket-213+194
ProphetX-215+196
Stake-233+195
SXBet-205+201
YouWager-230+190

Odds are for information only. · Odds data: fightodds.io