Ultimate Fighting Calendar
Light Heavyweight3 rounds scheduled
WIN
Rafael Xavier
Kratos
15-9-0
RESULT

Rafael Xavier def. Mateusz Strzelczyk (TKO)

TKO · Round 3 · 2:47
Mateusz Strzelczyk
SPIDER
16-16-1
Saturday, June 17, 2023
Rudolf Weber-ARENA, Oberhausen, Germany

Rafael Xavier defeated Mateusz Strzelczyk by TKO in round 3 (2:47) in the Light Heavyweight bout of OKTAGON 44: Langer vs. Poppeck, held Saturday, June 17, 2023 at Rudolf Weber-ARENA, Oberhausen.

Fight stats

Rafael Xavier
Mateusz Strzelczyk
-
Knockdowns
-
73
Significant strikes
10
-
Sig. strike accuracy
-
88
Total strikes
39
0 of 0
Takedowns
0 of 0
-
Takedown accuracy
-
0
Submission attempts
0
-
Reversals
-
-
Control time
-
Significant strikes by target
60
Head
8
8
Body
2
-
Leg
0
-
Distance
-
-
Clinch
-
-
Ground
-

By round

ROUND 1
-
KD
-
38
Sig. str.
2
49
Total str.
13
35
Head
0
2
Body
2
-
Distance
-
-
Clinch
-
-
Takedowns
-
-
Sub. att
-
-
Ctrl
-
ROUND 2
-
KD
-
28
Sig. str.
5
29
Total str.
17
21
Head
5
5
Body
0
-
Distance
-
-
Clinch
-
-
Takedowns
-
-
Sub. att
-
-
Ctrl
-
ROUND 3
-
KD
-
7
Sig. str.
3
10
Total str.
9
4
Head
3
1
Body
0
-
Distance
-
-
Clinch
-
-
Takedowns
-
-
Sub. att
-
-
Ctrl
-

Betting Odds

Rafael Xavier
-435
81% implied win probability
Open: -446Best: -400
Mateusz Strzelczyk
+302
25% implied win probability
Open: +308Best: +305

Average moneyline across 3 sportsbooks.

SportsbookRafael XavierMateusz Strzelczyk
BetOnline-400+300
Betway-450+300
Bovada-460+305

Odds are for information only. · Odds data: fightodds.io

Frequently asked questions

Who won Rafael Xavier vs Mateusz Strzelczyk?

Rafael Xavier defeated Mateusz Strzelczyk by TKO in round 3 (2:47) in the Light Heavyweight bout of OKTAGON 44: Langer vs. Poppeck, held Saturday, June 17, 2023 at Rudolf Weber-ARENA, Oberhausen.

Pre-fight comparison

Win probability

Rafael Xavier 60%40% Mateusz Strzelczyk

What the model gave each fighter going into the fight, from their pre-fight UFCalendar Power Index ratings. See the full Power Index

Fight DNA

Head to head

UFCalendar's style model · Light heavyweight roster (12 fighters)

Rafael Xavier
Knockout Artist
5 edges
Mateusz Strzelczyk
Submission Ace
5 edges
PowerSpeedPrecisionDurabilityEngineWrestlingGround

Radar scaled to this matchup · bars show the gap

Style shape

97Power89
87Speed72
99Precision75
78Durability83
62Engine62
46Wrestling91
69Ground90

Biggest edge Mateusz Strzelczyk, Submissions +54

Attribute by attribute

Rafael Xavier is on the left of every row, Mateusz Strzelczyk on the right.
95Punch power96
99Kick power82
75Punch speed87
99Kick speed56
99Accuracy75
46Takedowns91
95Ground striking83
42Submissions96
88Chin87
68Body strength78
62Cardio62

Attributes are rated 0-100 by UFCalendar's style model.

Tale of the Tape

15-9-0
Record
16-16-1
1624
Power Index rating
1555
1
Win Streak
0
35
Age
35
6'1"
185 cm
Height
6'4"
193 cm
78"
198 cm
Reach
75"
191 cm
-
Stance
-
Light Heavyweight
Weight Class
Light Heavyweight
Brazil
Nationality
Poland

Striking Profile

3.06
SLpM
1.91
392%
Str. Acc.
-
1.76
SApM
6.41
-344%
Str. Def.
-

Grappling Profile

0.00
TD Avg.
-
-
TD Acc.
-
57%
TD Def.
-
0.00
Sub. Avg.
0.00

Recent form (last 5 fights)

Rafael Xavier · 3-2
  • W
    PFL Washington DC: Jean vs. Rodriguez · Jul 26, 2026
    TKO · R1 · 4:59 · Heavyweight
  • L
    PFL Sioux Falls: Storley vs. Zendeli · May 2, 2026
    Decision · R3 · 5:00 · Heavyweight
  • W
    Professional Fighters League - 2025 PFL World Tournament 7: Semifinals · Jun 27, 2025
    TKO · R1 · 0:27 · Light Heavyweight
  • L
    Bellator Champions Series · Sep 14, 2024
    Split Decision · Light Heavyweight
  • W
    OKTAGON 50: Keita vs. Samsonidse · Dec 9, 2023
    TKO · R2 · 1:27 · Light Heavyweight
Mateusz Strzelczyk · 2-2
  • L
    OKTAGON 87: SZABOVÁ VS. FERNANDES · Apr 25, 2026
    TKO · R1 · 3:48 · Light Heavyweight
  • W
    OKTAGON 81: FLEURY vs. BUDAY · Dec 28, 2025
    Submission · R2 · 1:51 · Light Heavyweight
  • L
    OKTAGON 75: Palokaj vs. Batfalský · Sep 13, 2025
    TKO · R1 · 3:03 · Light Heavyweight
  • W
    OKTAGON 70: KRIŠTOFIČ VS. HUMBURGER · Apr 26, 2025
    Submission · R1 · 1:31 · Light Heavyweight
  • NC
    OKTAGON 64: MOEIL vs. TODEV 2 · Dec 7, 2024
    No Contest · R1 · 2:25 · Light Heavyweight

Career Averages

Based on 9 fights · 11 fights
27.4
Avg sig. strikes
9.9
0.00
Avg takedowns
-
0:07
Avg control time
-
73
Career high strikes
77
0
Career high TDs
-

Strike Distribution

Rafael Xavier
Strike target
Mateusz Strzelczyk
75%
Head
86%
19%
Body
14%
6%
Leg
0%
Rafael Xavier
Strike position
Mateusz Strzelczyk
74%
Distance
-
26%
Clinch
-