Winiarski vs Kasperski Result & Stats: Winiarski wins by UD · KSW 118, Sat, May 16, 2026

KSWKSW 118: Kuberski vs. Michalski

Aleksander WiniarskiWIN

4-1-0

UDTKOTKO

RESULT

Unanimous Decision

ROUND 3 · 5:00

Light Heavyweight3 rounds scheduled

Full card

Dawid Kasperski

2-2-0

UDDECUD

Saturday, May 16, 2026Arena Kalisz, Kalisz, Poland

Aleksander Winiarski defeated Dawid Kasperski by Unanimous Decision in round 3 (05:00) in the Light Heavyweight bout of KSW 118: Kuberski vs. Michalski, held Saturday, May 16, 2026 at Arena Kalisz, Kalisz. The judges scored it 30-27, 30-27, 30-27, Aleksander Winiarski won the decision.

The result

Aleksander WiniarskiWIN

def. Dawid Kasperski

Unanimous Decision

Round 3 · 05:00

Judges30-2730-2730-27

Referee: Lukasz Bosacki
Time format: 5 Rnd (5-5-5-5-5)

Who called it

Every forecast, graded against the result

Aleksander WiniarskiDawid Kasperski

55%Power Index✓ Called it45%

36%Market · 4 sportsbooks✗ Missed64%

Model opinion, not betting advice. 18+. See the full Power Index

Betting Odds

Average moneyline across 4 sportsbooks.

Aleksander Winiarski

+158

39% implied win probability · Open: +148

Dawid Kasperski

-210

68% implied win probability · Open: -195

Every sportsbook is in the Odds tab.

What happened

Every judge gave Aleksander Winiarski all 3 rounds.

Tale of the tape

4-1-0

Record

2-2-0

6'2" · 188 cm

Height

6'1" · 185 cm

Win Streak

1577

Power Index

1545

4-1

Last 5

2-2

Green marks the edge where one exists: younger, taller, longer, the streak, the higher rating and the better recent form. Record and stance are facts, not edges.

Fight stats: totals

Same scale left and right on every row; the pale tail behind a bar is attempts

Aleksander WiniarskiDawid Kasperski

Knockdowns

Significant strikes

194

Total strikes

172

0 / 1

Takedowns

0 / 0

1:38

Control time

1:30

Where it landed

Significant strikes landed by target in this fight

Aleksander WiniarskiDawid Kasperski

7491%

Head

3962%

67%

Body

46%

11%

Leg

2032%

Where it happened

Share of fight time at distance, in the clinch and on the ground

81%19%

■ Distance■ Clinch■ Ground

Judges' Scorecards

Lukasz Porebski

#	Winiarski	Kasperski
1	10	9
2	10	9
3	10	9

Total3027

Cezary Wojciechowski

#	Winiarski	Kasperski
1	10	9
2	10	9
3	10	9

Total3027

Michal Lepicki

#	Winiarski	Kasperski
1	10	9
2	10	9
3	10	9

Total3027

Scorecard data via mmadecisions.com

Betting Odds

Aleksander Winiarski

+158

39% implied win probability

Open: +148Best: +168

Dawid Kasperski

-210

68% implied win probability

Open: -195Best: -200

Average moneyline across 4 sportsbooks.

Sportsbook	Aleksander Winiarski	Dawid Kasperski
Betway	+150	-200
Bovada	+160	-210
Cloudbet	+168	-208
Stake	+155	-222

Odds are for information only. · Odds data: fightodds.io

Insights

Aleksander Winiarski lands 5.40 significant strikes a minute, more than 91% of UFC fighters.
Aleksander Winiarski spends 81% of fight time at distance.

Sig. strikes by zone

Where each fighter lands, as a share of significant strikes

91%

Head

38%

Body

11%

Leg

52%

Time in position

Share of fight time at distance, in the clinch and on the ground

Aleksander Winiarskilast 1 fight

81%19%

Dawid Kasperskilast 4 fights

70%16%14%

■ Distance■ Clinch■ Ground

How good, really

Each stat against every UFC fighter, in plain words

Aleksander Winiarski· from fights outside the UFC Dawid Kasperski· from fights outside the UFC

Strikes landed / min

5.403.07

PoorBelow avgAverageGoodElite

Aleksander Winiarski · Elite · better than 91% of UFC fightersDawid Kasperski · Below avg · better than 38% of UFC fighters

Strikes taken / minfewer is better

4.202.43

PoorBelow avgAverageGoodElite

Aleksander Winiarski · Below avg · better than 26% of UFC fightersDawid Kasperski · Good · better than 81% of UFC fighters

Takedowns landed / 15 min

0.000.25

PoorBelow avgAverageGoodElite

Aleksander Winiarski · Poor · better than 0% of UFC fightersDawid Kasperski · Poor · better than 12% of UFC fighters

Takedown accuracy

0%100%

PoorBelow avgAverageGoodElite

Aleksander Winiarski · Poor · better than 0% of UFC fightersDawid Kasperski · Elite · better than 98% of UFC fighters

Submission attempts / 15 min

0.000.00

PoorBelow avgAverageGoodElite

Aleksander Winiarski · Poor · better than 0% of UFC fightersDawid Kasperski · Poor · better than 0% of UFC fighters

Ranked against 1497 UFC fighters with five or more UFC fights.

Striking & grappling

Same scale left and right on every row

5.40

Strikes landed / min

3.07

4.20

Strikes taken / minfewer is better

2.43

0.00

Takedowns landed / 15 min

0.25 / 0.3

Takedown accuracy

100%

1:38

Control time / fight

2:38

0.00

Submission attempts / 15 min

0.00

Bars in a row share one scale. The stronger side is solid; the pale tail behind takedowns is attempts.

Where the strikes land

Range × target

Aleksander Winiarski1 fight · by range and by target

Range

85%Distance · 81

15%Clinch · 14

0%Ground · 0

Target

91%Head · 74

7%Body · 6

1%Leg · 1

The range × target cross-tab is logged for UFC fights only.

Dawid Kasperski4 fights · by range and by target

Range

68%Distance · 164

24%Clinch · 58

8%Ground · 20

Target

38%Head · 69

11%Body · 20

52%Leg · 95

The range × target cross-tab is logged for UFC fights only.

Share of significant strikes landed by range and target · landed / attempted in each cell.

When it ends

Every early finish of their careers, placed at the minute it ended

Aleksander Winiarski4 of 5 ended early · 80%1 went the distance

R1R2R3R4R5

Dawid Kasperski0 of 4 ended early · 0%4 went the distance

finished the opponent got finished· placed at the minute the fight ended

Recent form · last 5

Aleksander Winiarski4-1

W
Dawid Kasperski
KSW 118: Kuberski vs. Michalski · May 16, 2026
Unanimous Decision · R3 · 5:00 · Light Heavyweight
W
Patryk Petsch
Hybrid MMA 10 · Dec 12, 2025
TKO · R1 · 1:58 · Light Heavyweight
W
Hubert Rudnik
Hybrid MMA 9 · Sep 13, 2025
TKO · R1 · 1:57 · Light Heavyweight
W
Jakub Frąckowiak
Hybrid MMA 7 · Mar 7, 2025
TKO · R1 · 1:33 · Heavyweight
L
Paweł Kubiś
Hybrid MMA 6 · Dec 14, 2024
TKO · R1 · 0:24 · Heavyweight

Dawid Kasperski2-2

L
Aleksander Winiarski
KSW 118: Kuberski vs. Michalski · May 16, 2026
Unanimous Decision · R3 · 5:00 · Light Heavyweight
L
Bartosz Szewczyk
KSW 109: Kuberski vs. Paczuski · Aug 9, 2025
Decision · R3 · 5:00 · Light Heavyweight
W
Krzysztof Glowacki
KSW 98: Paczuski vs. Zerhouni · Sep 14, 2024
Unanimous Decision · R3 · 5:00 · Light Heavyweight
W
Vasil Ducár
KSW 91 - Mircea vs. Brichta · Feb 17, 2024
Unanimous Decision · R3 · 5:00 · Light Heavyweight

Full comparison →

Frequently asked questions

Who won Aleksander Winiarski vs Dawid Kasperski?

What were the judges' scorecards for Aleksander Winiarski vs Dawid Kasperski?

The judges scored it 30-27, 30-27, 30-27, Aleksander Winiarski won the decision.