Allen vs Duncan fan picks: 12 favorites and one Fan Parlay

Eight of the nine people who have picked Ernesta Kareckaite vs Melissa Gatto on our pick'em board took Gatto. That is 89 percent of the room. The sportsbooks, with their margin stripped out, give her 52 percent. No other bout on UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan has a gap that wide between the people voting and the people setting prices, and it is the last fight on the prelims.

Here is the stranger fact about this card. There are 12 bouts, 163 fan picks across them, and in every single bout the fans' majority sits on the betting favorite. Twelve for twelve. The fans and the books agree on who should win everything on Saturday night at the Meta Apex. They disagree, sometimes by a lot, about how sure anyone should be.

The Fan Parlay is built from those picks, not mine. For every bout we take the side the fans back by a clear majority, rank the bouts from most united to least, and stack them at the consensus line until the ticket reaches 10x. Then it stops. Nobody swaps a leg for one they like better.

It is a record of what the fans think, priced by the books. It is not betting advice, and it is for readers 18 and over.

The ticket

Six legs made it, and together they pay 12.04x, or +1104 in American odds. A $100 ticket would return $1,204 if every leg lands. The books, multiplying their own numbers, give all six about a 6.4 percent chance. Odds are the consensus line as of Saturday morning, October 10.

The order is the order the fans set. A thin sample is pulled toward 50-50 before it is ranked, which is why 28 of 43 on the main event, the biggest sample on the card by a distance, still lands last: 65 percent of a big room is less united than 75 percent of a small one.

Sixty-nine fan picks stand behind the six legs. The first five legs take the ticket to 6.57x. The main event takes it the rest of the way, to 12.04x, and that is where it stops.

Gatto is where the fans and the books are furthest apart

Gatto (9-3-2) has not had an easy two years. Her last fight was a majority decision loss to Dione Barbosa in April, and her last win was a third-round knockout of Tamires Vidal in May 2024, 37 seconds into the round. Kareckaite (6-2-1) lost a unanimous decision to Regina Tarin in February, and she also lost to Barbosa, at UFC 301 in May 2024. Every one of Kareckaite's UFC fights, including her Contender Series win, has gone the full 15 minutes.

The fans are sure. The market has been going the other way all week. The first consensus line we recorded, on October 1, had Gatto at -150 and Kareckaite at +130. It is -121 and even money now. That is 37 points between the fan share and the books on the same side, and the line is still narrowing toward Kareckaite while the vote count heads the other way.

The main event is the leg that sets the price

The fans have voted on Brendan Allen vs Christian Leroy Duncan more than three times as often as on any other bout, and 28 of the 43 took Allen. The books give him 52 percent, and they have been drifting toward Duncan since the line opened at -141 on October 1. It is -120 against -101 now, about as close to a pick'em as a five-round main event gets.

That is the shape of this whole leg: a 13-point fan lean on a fight the books barely have an opinion about. Allen (27-7) is No. 4 at middleweight and six of his eight middleweight finishes in the UFC are submissions. Duncan (15-2) is No. 10 and has won five straight in the UFC, the last two over Roman Dolidze and Jared Cannonier on the scorecards. It is also the leg that nearly doubles the ticket's price, from 6.57x to 12.04x. If you were looking for the one bout that decides whether the slip is a story on Sunday, it is the last one of the night.

The rest of the slip

Photo: Show Me The Money / CC BY 3.0

Felipe Franco (11-2) is the second-strongest leg on the fans' count, 7 of 9, against a man who has lost four straight. Brendson Ribeiro was knocked out by Azamat Murzakanov and Oumar Sy, submitted by Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev in April and outpointed by Magomed Tuchalov in July. Franco stopped Levi Rodrigues Jr. in the second round in July. At -383 he barely moves the price, and the books' 76 percent sits almost exactly on the fans' 78.

Andre Fili (25-14, 1 NC) is the other leg where the fans are well ahead of the price: 9 of 12 against the books' 57 percent, an 18-point gap. Kai Kamaka III (18-8-1) was knocked out by Luke Riley in July. Fili opened at -154 and is -147, so the market has not moved much either way.

RJ Harris (6-0) is the only unbeaten fighter on the card, and the fans' 75 percent matches the books' 75 almost to the point. That number came the long way, though. Harris opened at -220 against Allen Frye Jr. on October 1 and has been bet to -356 on the strength of one UFC fight, a 1:40 knockout of Alvin Hines in July.

Julius Walker (7-3) against Gerald Meerschaert (37-22) is another case of the room and the market saying the same thing, 73 percent and 72. Meerschaert is 38, on a five-fight losing streak and moving up to light heavyweight. Walker has been knocked out in his last two. Two men on losing streaks, and the fans picked the one whose losing streak is shorter.

Where the fans part ways with the books

The ticket stopped at 12.04x, so six bouts with a fan majority never made it on. Every one of them is a vote for the favorite, and in most of them the fans sit within a few points of the books:

• Malcolm Wellmaker 8 of 12 (67 percent) at -214, where the books give him 65. The line has gone from -176 to -214 since it opened.
• Matheus Camilo 9 of 14 (64 percent) at -192, books 63.
• Francisco Prado 7 of 11 (64 percent) at -144, books 57. Prado opened as a +130 underdog against Ismael Bonfim and has been bet into the favorite's chair.
• Loopy Godinez 6 of 10 at -237. This is the one bout where the books are clearly surer than the fans, 67 percent to 60.

Where the fans split

No bout on this card is tied, but three are as close as a 10-vote sample allows: Godinez vs Ketlen Souza, Alice Pereira vs Daria Zhelezniakova, and Niko Price vs Leon Shahbazyan, each 6-4. Shahbazyan has the six at -147. Price, 37 and on a four-fight losing streak, has the four at +123, the closest any underdog on this card comes to a fan following.

Those three are where the card is genuinely open. One vote moves any of them to 7-4, and two can flip them.

The math

• Combined price: 12.04x (+1104)
• The books' chance that all six land: about 6.4 percent
• Fan picks behind the six legs: 69 of 96 votes cast on those bouts

One caution you can act on: six bouts on one card are not six independent coin flips. Results on the same night tend to move together, so treat the books' 6.4 percent as an estimate rather than a hard number.

The ticket keeps moving with the votes until the first bell at 5 p.m. ET, then freezes and settles on the event page leg by leg. The main card follows at 8 p.m. ET. If you think the room has been too kind to the favorites, the fix is simple: make your own picks. Fan picks, not betting advice, 18+.