UFC 332 fan picks: the Fan Parlay and a 26-26 main event
UFC 332 fan picks and odds: the seven bouts our pick'em voters agree on, stacked at the consensus line to 10.64x, and why Silva vs Wang is not on it.
Fifty-two people have made a pick for Natalia Silva vs Wang Cong on our pick'em board. Twenty-six took Silva. Twenty-six took Wang. The vacant women's flyweight title is on the line at UFC 332 on Saturday in Salt Lake City, it is the most-picked fight on the card by a distance, and the room is split exactly down the middle.
The sportsbooks are not split. They have Silva at -210, about 65 percent once the margin is stripped out. That is the first thing worth knowing about this card: on the fight everybody has an opinion about, the fans refuse to agree, and the books lean hard one way.
A tied bout has no fan side, so the main event cannot be on the Fan Parlay. Everything below it can. The Fan Parlay is built from your picks, not ours: for every bout we take the side the fans back by a clear majority, rank the bouts from most united to least, and stack them at the consensus line until the ticket reaches 10x. Then it stops. Nobody here swaps a leg for one they like better.
It is a record of what the fans think, priced by the books. It is not betting advice, and it is for readers 18 and over.
The ticket
Seven legs made it, and together they pay 10.64x, or +964 in American odds. A $100 ticket would return $1,064 if every leg lands. The books, adding up their own numbers, give all seven about a 6.8 percent chance. Odds are as of Friday afternoon, October 2.
| Pick | Opponent | Fans | Price | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roberto Soldic | Khaos Williams | 28 of 30 | -244 | 68% |
| Alexander Hernandez | Rafael Dos Anjos | 8 of 8 | -277 | 70% |
| Damian Pinas | Andrey Pulyaev | 9 of 11 | -568 | 81% |
| Imanol Rodríguez | Alden Coria | 9 of 12 | -144 | 56% |
| Marvin Vettori | Ismail Naurdiev | 9 of 12 | +115 | 44% |
| Jacobe Smith | Bruce Whitehead | 4 of 5 | -1005 | 87% |
| Anthony Wint | Lucas Armand | 11 of 15 | -563 | 81% |
The order is the order the fans set. A bout with a thin sample is pulled toward 50-50 before it is ranked, so 8 of 8 on Alexander Hernandez sits second, behind 28 of 30 on Roberto Soldic, and 4 of 5 on Jacobe Smith sits sixth even though it is 80 percent.
Seventy-eight fan picks stand behind the seven legs. Six of them are favorites. One is not, and it is the most interesting line on the slip.
Soldic is the one the room agrees on
Photo: PIXSELL / CC BY-SA 3.0
Thirty people have picked Roberto Soldic vs Khaos Williams, more than any bout except the main event, and 28 of them took Soldic. That is 93 percent of a real sample, which is why he heads the ticket.
The books have gone the other way all week. The first consensus line we logged, on September 24, had Soldic at -300. It is -244 now, and the books' number for him has slipped to 68 percent. So the leg the fans are surest of is also the leg where the gap between fans and books has grown the most, 25 points and widening.
The fans' case is the résumé. Soldic is 21-4 and won KSW titles at welterweight and middleweight, the second of them by knocking out Mamed Khalidov at KSW 65. Saturday is his UFC debut and his first fight since a knockout win at ONE 171 in February 2025. Williams is 16-5 and coming off a first-round knockout of Nikolay Veretennikov in May. The market has been drifting toward that case all week. The people on our board have not.
Vettori is the fans' underdog
Marvin Vettori is +115 against Ismail Naurdiev. The books give him 44 percent. Nine of 12 fans took him anyway, a 31-point gap between fans and books, the widest of any leg on the ticket, and the only leg where the crowd backs the side the books do not.
It is a vote for the name, and the record says the name has been losing. Vettori is 19-9-1 and has lost four straight in the UFC, all on the cards: Jared Cannonier and Roman Dolidze over five rounds, then Brendan Allen and Brunno Ferreira over three. Naurdiev is 25-8 and finished his last fight, against Ryan Loder in November, in 1:26. This is the leg that does the most to lift the ticket's price, and the one the books like least.
The rest of the slip
Photo: MMAnytt / CC BY 3.0
Nobody has picked Rafael Dos Anjos. All eight votes on the early prelims bout went to Hernandez (18-9), who turned 34 on Thursday. Dos Anjos is 32-17, a former lightweight champion, and fighting for the first time in 707 days. The books have moved with the fans: Hernandez opened at -220 and is -277.
Imanol Rodríguez is 7-0 and has finished all seven, and 9 of 12 fans took him over Alden Coria (13-3). At -144 he is the cheapest favorite on the slip, and the books' 56 percent is the closest thing to a coin flip the ticket carries.
The three heavy favorites barely move the price. Damian Pinas (10-1) has three first-round stoppages, one on the Contender Series and two in the UFC, and is -568 against Andrey Pulyaev. Jacobe Smith is 12-0 and -1005 against the debuting Bruce Whitehead. Anthony Wint is 8-0 and has drawn the biggest line move on the card, from -245 when it opened on September 25 to -563 against the unbeaten Lucas Armand.
Where the fans part ways with the books
The ticket stopped at 10x, so six bouts with a fan majority never made it on. One of them is the second fan underdog on the card. King Green is +191 against Esteban Ribovics, about 33 percent with the books, and 13 of 24 fans took him. That is barely a majority, which is why it ranked too low to make the slip, but it is a majority for the 40-year-old, and the line has come his way since it opened at +260.
The other five went the books' way: Payton Talbott 17 of 25 at -755 against Deiveson Figueiredo, Ateba Gautier 14 of 21 at -249, Johnny Walker 9 of 14 at -126, Eric Nolan 7 of 10 at -230 and Marcus McGhee 3 of 5 at -497 against the late replacement Anthony Romero. Talbott is the outlier there: the books give him 84 percent, the fans 68.
Where the fans split
The main event, and only the main event. Twenty-six for Silva, twenty-six for Wang, on a bout with 22 more picks than any other on the card. Silva is 20-5-1 and ranked first at women's flyweight; Wang is 10-1 and ranked eighth. The books have made up their minds. The people who pick fights on this site have not, and on a title fight between a woman who has beaten Alexa Grasso and Rose Namajunas and a woman who has won four straight since the only loss of her career, that seems about right.
The math
- Combined price: 10.64x (+964)
- The books' chance that all seven land: about 6.8 percent
- Fan picks behind the seven legs: 78
One caution you can act on: seven bouts on one card are not seven independent coin flips. Results on the same night tend to move together, so treat the books' 6.8 percent as an estimate rather than a hard number.
The ticket keeps moving with the votes until the first bell at 4 p.m. ET Saturday, then freezes and settles on the event page leg by leg. If you disagree with it, the fix is simple: make your own picks. One more vote on Silva or Wang breaks the tie. Fan picks, not betting advice, 18+.