DWCS 91 predictions: full card picks for Pasley vs. Berisha

Dana White's Contender Series 91 runs Tuesday, September 8 from the Meta Apex in Las Vegas, one broadcast, no prelims, first fight at 7:00 PM ET (4:00 PM PT) on Paramount+ in the United States and UFC Fight Pass in the UK and Ireland. Five fights, five men who can walk out with a UFC contract, and one of the strangest matchmaking weeks this season has produced: two of the five bouts were rebuilt in the ten days before fight night.

Here is the card, and here is how I am picking it. Consensus prices are the de-vigged averages across the books we track, taken Monday morning.

Quentin Pasley vs Arlind Berisha, light heavyweight

Quentin Pasley is 3-0 and has never seen the second round. All three wins are first-round knockouts, the most recent over Jerell Nettles at CES 81 in August 2025, and he also carries a 1-0 pro boxing record and a 3-1 mark in pro submission grappling out of Fighting Arts Academy in Michigan. He is 24 and he has fought eleven and a half minutes as a professional, which is the entire problem with rating him.

Arlind Berisha is 5-0, out of Sarpsborg in Norway by way of Kosovo, and his record is even more of a highlight reel: five wins, five first-round stoppages, four of them TKOs. The most recent is a first-round submission of Wesley Silva at FCR 27 in February. Nobody has taken him past five minutes either.

So this is a fight between two men with no data past round one. The books have made Berisha a -210 favorite, roughly 64% after removing the vig; our model has it at 53.4% for Berisha, which is the wider way of saying nobody knows. What makes me lean Berisha anyway is the amateur ledger under the pro record, 8-1 to Pasley's 7-0 with a level of competition in Scandinavia that is deeper than Michigan regional. What makes me nervous is that Pasley has knocked out everyone he has met and has the boxing background of the two.

Prediction: Berisha by TKO, round 1. Pasley at +164 is the live dog of the night.

Reginaldo Geraldo Jr. vs Isaac Moreno, welterweight

The best fight on the card, and the one where the market has moved the most in the wrong direction, in my opinion. Reginaldo Geraldo Jr. is 11-1 out of Fighting Nerds, riding a six-fight win streak, with his last loss coming in March 2023 on the wrong end of a unanimous decision to Richard Martins. He submitted Natan Mota in the third at LFA 221 in November and finished Gilberto Sousa in the first at LFA 209 before that.

Isaac Moreno is 8-0 and has spent his whole career at Fury FC in Texas, most notably stopping Melvin Guillard in the second round in July 2025 and Darian Weeks in the first last October. The perfect record is doing a lot of work in the price. Moreno opened around a small favorite and has drifted out to -149, with Geraldo at +118, and I do not understand what the market saw.

Geraldo is the one who has been finishing better opposition, on a bigger regional promotion, more recently. The Fighting Nerds have put ten fighters onto UFC cards in the last two years, Jean Silva, who headlines Noche UFC on Saturday, among them, and Geraldo is the one they sent to the audition.

Prediction: Geraldo Jr. by unanimous decision, and I would happily take him at plus money.

Martin Kozák vs Christian Echols, middleweight

Martin Kozák is 24, 6-0, and has finished all six, four by TKO and two by submission, entirely inside RFA and one FABRIQ MMA card. His last was a third-round TKO of Łukasz Dziudzia at RFA 30 in April. He was originally booked against Juan Cabrera before the card reshuffled.

Christian Echols is the replacement, added to our card data on August 29, ten days out. He is the only man here with a name on his record you might recognize, having stopped Patrick Downey in the first round at Bellator 289 in December 2022. He is 8-4 out of 10th Planet, all eight wins by finish inside the first round, and all four losses by stoppage too. Nothing this man does goes to the scorecards.

The market has Kozák at around -474, which is an enormous number for a man whose entire professional career has happened on regional cards in Slovakia and the Czech Republic. Our model is a good deal cooler on him at 66.6%. I still take Kozák, because Echols gets stopped when he is not stopping people and Kozák has never had to answer that question, but I am not touching that price.

Prediction: Kozák by TKO, round 2.

Apollo Gomes vs Kwon Won Il, bantamweight

Kwon Won Il is the reason to watch this card. He is 14-6, spent six years in ONE Championship, knocked out Kevin Belingon in the second round in December 2021, and in January 2025 challenged Fabricio Andrade for the ONE bantamweight title at ONE 170, where he was stopped in the opening round. He then took a Contender Series slot last October and got knocked out in the second by Juan Díaz. This is his second and probably final audition, at 31.

Apollo Gomes is 12-2 with a no contest, a Chute Boxe fighter whose last outing was a split decision over Zebenzui Ruiz at WOW 28 in Barcelona in March. He has finished nine of his twelve wins, five by knockout and four by submission, and he is 26 with the fresher mileage of the two by a distance.

The books can barely separate them, Gomes trading between -115 and +115 depending on where you look, Kwon between -145 and -115. Our model gives Kwon 63.1%, and it does that while explicitly docking him for age and rewarding Gomes' win rate. Level of opposition is the whole gap, and on this card level of opposition is the only thing worth paying for.

Prediction: Kwon by KO, round 2.

Colton Loud vs Christian Natividad, flyweight

Christian Natividad is 9-0 and has fought every one of those nine at LFA, which for a flyweight prospect is close to the ideal resume. The last four have gone to decision, including a unanimous nod over Adrian Garcia in March, in a fight LFA gave him the main event of.

Colton Loud is 7-1, out of Genesis BJJ, and has finished all seven wins, five of them in the opening round, most recently submitting Jacobo Martos at Fury FC 117 in March. His only loss came by first-round submission to Jesse Tafoya in March 2024. Like Kozák, he was rebooked: his original opponent, Frank da Silva Castro, came off the card.

Natividad at -283 reflects the record and the promotion. Loud at +212 reflects the fact that nobody outside Peak Fighting and Fury has watched him fight. He is the more dangerous of the two in the first five minutes and the less proven after them.

Prediction: Natividad by unanimous decision.

Watch and score along

Coverage starts at 7:00 PM ET Tuesday on Paramount+ in the US, with country by country listings on the how to watch page. Make your own picks on the DWCS 91 predictor before the first bell, and the event page carries results live as Dana White decides who gets the phone call.