Ultimate Fighting Calendar
UFCUFC Fight Night: Medić vs Rodriguez
Bantamweight3 rounds scheduled
Mark Vologdin
RussiaMark Vologdin
12-5-2
STARTS IN··d ··h ··m

Mark Vologdin vs Josias Musasa

Josias Musasa
Congo - KinshasaJosias Musasa
“The KO Wizard”
8-2-0
Saturday, August 1, 2026
Belgrade Arena, BG, Serbia

UFCalendar model win probability

Mark Vologdin 35%65% Josias Musasa

What drove this number

  • Pre-UFC pedigree
    67%Pre-UFC win rate100%
    4.0Pre-UFC losses0.0
    12.0Pre-UFC wins8.0
  • Size & reach
    65.0Reach74.0
    63.0Height68.0
  • Opposition level (Power Index)(small sample, gap discounted)
    -UFCalendar Power Index rating1425.0
  • UFC record(small sample, gap discounted)
    0.0UFC experience2.0
    0.0Win streak0.0
    -UFC win rate0%
  • Layoff & stance
    0.0Southpaw matchup1.0
    -Layoff308.0
    0.0Switch stance0.0

Model opinion, not betting advice. 18+.

Win probability

Mark Vologdin 54%46% Josias Musasa

Based on both fighters' current UFCalendar Power Index ratings. See the full Power Index

Tale of the Tape

12-5-2
Record
8-2-0
1697
Power Index rating
1669
0
Win Streak
0
26
Age
27
5'3"
160 cm
Height
5'8"
173 cm
65"
165 cm
Reach
74"
188 cm
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Bantamweight
Weight Class
Bantamweight
Russia
Nationality
Congo - Kinshasa

Striking Profile

5.56
SLpM
3.19
45%
Str. Acc.
45%
7.93
SApM
4.39
45%
Str. Def.
36%

Grappling Profile

1.33
TD Avg.
0.90
26%
TD Acc.
50%
50%
TD Def.
81%
0.00
Sub. Avg.
0.50

Recent form (last 5 fights)

Mark Vologdin · 2-2-1
  • L
    Borislav Nikolić
    UFC Fight Night: Medić vs Rodriguez · Aug 1, 2026
    Unanimous Decision · R3 · 5:00 · Bantamweight
  • D
    John Castaneda
    UFC Fight Night: Burns vs Malott · Apr 18, 2026
    Majority Decision · R3 · 5:00 · Catchweight
  • L
    Adrian Luna Martinetti
    Contender Series 2025 · Oct 7, 2025
    Unanimous Decision · Bantamweight
  • W
    Cleiton Monteiro
    AFN 10 · Jun 14, 2025
    Submission · R1 · 4:05 · Bantamweight
  • W
    Renan Baptista
    AFN 8 · Oct 19, 2024
    TKO · Bantamweight
Josias Musasa · 3-2
  • L
    Colby Thicknesse
    UFC Perth: Ulberg vs Reyes · Sep 27, 2025
    Unanimous Decision · R3 · 5:00 · Bantamweight
  • L
    Carlos Vera
    UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs Dolidze 2 · Mar 15, 2025
    Submission · R1 · 3:16 · Bantamweight
  • W
    Otari Tanzilovi
    Contender Series 2024 · Sep 10, 2024
    Split Decision · Bantamweight
  • W
    Marvin Malunes
    Impact Championship 3 · Jun 29, 2024
    TKO · R1 · 2:28 · Bantamweight
  • W
    Abdelghani Saber
    AKO 3 · Mar 2, 2024
    TKO · R1 · 1:45 · Featherweight

Career Averages

Based on 2 fights · 2 fights
66.5
Avg sig. strikes
28.0
2.00
Avg takedowns
0.50
0:51
Avg control time
0:31
91
Career high strikes
43
3
Career high TDs
1

Strike Distribution

Mark Vologdin
Strike target
Josias Musasa
59%
Head
52%
25%
Body
13%
16%
Leg
36%
Mark Vologdin
Strike position
Josias Musasa
90%
Distance
71%
10%
Clinch
29%
0%
Ground
0%

Betting Odds

Mark Vologdin
+103
49% implied win probability
Open: -148Best: +110
Josias Musasa
-123
55% implied win probability
Open: -181Best: -113

Average moneyline across 3 sportsbooks.

Line Movement

Mark VologdinJosias Musasa
50%60%70%80%90%100%Jul 19Jul 21Jul 23Jul 24Jul 19, 10:50 PM UTC · Mark Vologdin -1900 (95%)Jul 20, 12:50 AM UTC · Mark Vologdin -1567 (94%)Jul 20, 10:50 AM UTC · Mark Vologdin -809 (89%)Jul 20, 12:51 PM UTC · Mark Vologdin -669 (87%)Jul 20, 2:51 PM UTC · Mark Vologdin -669 (87%)Jul 21, 12:50 AM UTC · Mark Vologdin -614 (86%)Jul 21, 2:50 AM UTC · Mark Vologdin -614 (86%)Jul 21, 6:50 AM UTC · Mark Vologdin -567 (85%)Jul 21, 8:50 AM UTC · Mark Vologdin -614 (86%)Jul 21, 10:50 AM UTC · Mark Vologdin -567 (85%)Jul 21, 12:50 PM UTC · Mark Vologdin -525 (84%)Jul 21, 2:50 PM UTC · Mark Vologdin -567 (85%)Jul 21, 4:50 PM UTC · Mark Vologdin -567 (85%)Jul 21, 8:50 PM UTC · Mark Vologdin -614 (86%)Jul 21, 10:50 PM UTC · Mark Vologdin -567 (85%)Jul 22, 12:50 AM UTC · Mark Vologdin -614 (86%)Jul 22, 2:50 AM UTC · Mark Vologdin -567 (85%)Jul 22, 8:50 AM UTC · Mark Vologdin -669 (87%)Jul 22, 10:51 AM UTC · Mark Vologdin -614 (86%)Jul 22, 12:50 PM UTC · Mark Vologdin -567 (85%)Jul 22, 2:50 PM UTC · Mark Vologdin -525 (84%)Jul 22, 4:50 PM UTC · Mark Vologdin -488 (83%)Jul 22, 6:50 PM UTC · Mark Vologdin -488 (83%)Jul 22, 8:50 PM UTC · Mark Vologdin -488 (83%)Jul 23, 12:50 AM UTC · Mark Vologdin -456 (82%)Jul 23, 2:50 AM UTC · Mark Vologdin -488 (83%)Jul 23, 4:20 AM UTC · Mark Vologdin -456 (82%)Jul 23, 4:50 AM UTC · Mark Vologdin -426 (81%)Jul 23, 6:50 AM UTC · Mark Vologdin -488 (83%)Jul 23, 8:50 AM UTC · Mark Vologdin -525 (84%)Jul 23, 10:50 AM UTC · Mark Vologdin -488 (83%)Jul 23, 2:50 PM UTC · Mark Vologdin -614 (86%)Jul 23, 4:50 PM UTC · Mark Vologdin -525 (84%)Jul 23, 6:50 PM UTC · Mark Vologdin -456 (82%)Jul 23, 8:50 PM UTC · Mark Vologdin -669 (87%)Jul 23, 10:50 PM UTC · Mark Vologdin -614 (86%)Jul 24, 12:50 AM UTC · Mark Vologdin -240 (71%)Jul 24, 2:50 AM UTC · Mark Vologdin -162 (62%)Jul 24, 4:20 AM UTC · Mark Vologdin -165 (62%)Jul 24, 4:50 AM UTC · Mark Vologdin -163 (62%)Jul 24, 6:50 AM UTC · Mark Vologdin +108 (48%)Jul 24, 10:50 AM UTC · Mark Vologdin +106 (49%)Jul 24, 12:50 PM UTC · Mark Vologdin +107 (48%)Jul 24, 2:50 PM UTC · Mark Vologdin +108 (48%)Jul 24, 4:50 PM UTC · Mark Vologdin +103 (49%)Jul 24, 6:50 PM UTC · Mark Vologdin +101 (50%)Jul 24, 8:50 PM UTC · Mark Vologdin +102 (50%)Jul 24, 10:50 PM UTC · Mark Vologdin +103 (49%)Jul 19, 10:50 PM UTC · Josias Musasa -1900 (95%)Jul 20, 12:50 AM UTC · Josias Musasa -1329 (93%)Jul 20, 10:50 AM UTC · Josias Musasa -355 (78%)Jul 20, 12:51 PM UTC · Josias Musasa -285 (74%)Jul 20, 2:51 PM UTC · Josias Musasa -317 (76%)Jul 21, 12:50 AM UTC · Josias Musasa -335 (77%)Jul 21, 2:50 AM UTC · Josias Musasa -317 (76%)Jul 21, 6:50 AM UTC · Josias Musasa -300 (75%)Jul 21, 8:50 AM UTC · Josias Musasa -300 (75%)Jul 21, 10:50 AM UTC · Josias Musasa -285 (74%)Jul 21, 12:50 PM UTC · Josias Musasa -270 (73%)Jul 21, 2:50 PM UTC · Josias Musasa -270 (73%)Jul 21, 4:50 PM UTC · Josias Musasa -257 (72%)Jul 21, 8:50 PM UTC · Josias Musasa -257 (72%)Jul 21, 10:50 PM UTC · Josias Musasa -257 (72%)Jul 22, 12:50 AM UTC · Josias Musasa -257 (72%)Jul 22, 2:50 AM UTC · Josias Musasa -257 (72%)Jul 22, 8:50 AM UTC · Josias Musasa -257 (72%)Jul 22, 10:51 AM UTC · Josias Musasa -257 (72%)Jul 22, 12:50 PM UTC · Josias Musasa -245 (71%)Jul 22, 2:50 PM UTC · Josias Musasa -245 (71%)Jul 22, 4:50 PM UTC · Josias Musasa -245 (71%)Jul 22, 6:50 PM UTC · Josias Musasa -223 (69%)Jul 22, 8:50 PM UTC · Josias Musasa -233 (70%)Jul 23, 12:50 AM UTC · Josias Musasa -223 (69%)Jul 23, 2:50 AM UTC · Josias Musasa -223 (69%)Jul 23, 4:20 AM UTC · Josias Musasa -213 (68%)Jul 23, 4:50 AM UTC · Josias Musasa -203 (67%)Jul 23, 6:50 AM UTC · Josias Musasa -223 (69%)Jul 23, 8:50 AM UTC · Josias Musasa -233 (70%)Jul 23, 10:50 AM UTC · Josias Musasa -233 (70%)Jul 23, 2:50 PM UTC · Josias Musasa -233 (70%)Jul 23, 4:50 PM UTC · Josias Musasa -213 (68%)Jul 23, 6:50 PM UTC · Josias Musasa -194 (66%)Jul 23, 8:50 PM UTC · Josias Musasa -525 (84%)Jul 23, 10:50 PM UTC · Josias Musasa -488 (83%)Jul 24, 12:50 AM UTC · Josias Musasa -111 (53%)Jul 24, 2:50 AM UTC · Josias Musasa -134 (57%)Jul 24, 4:20 AM UTC · Josias Musasa -136 (58%)Jul 24, 4:50 AM UTC · Josias Musasa -134 (57%)Jul 24, 6:50 AM UTC · Josias Musasa -136 (58%)Jul 24, 10:50 AM UTC · Josias Musasa -135 (57%)Jul 24, 12:50 PM UTC · Josias Musasa -135 (57%)Jul 24, 2:50 PM UTC · Josias Musasa -134 (57%)Jul 24, 4:50 PM UTC · Josias Musasa -126 (56%)Jul 24, 6:50 PM UTC · Josias Musasa -124 (55%)Jul 24, 8:50 PM UTC · Josias Musasa -124 (55%)Jul 24, 10:50 PM UTC · Josias Musasa -123 (55%)+103-123
SportsbookMark VologdinJosias Musasa
BetOnline+100-120
Betway+110-138
Polymarket+100-113

Odds are for information only. · Odds data: fightodds.io